DXY - according to today's economic data is ahead of tomorrow's
DXY - 48 hrs.
The sell-off in the stock markets on Wall Street took place on yesterday's trading day (Wednesday), contrary to the rise in the DXY and/or the increase in the price of the us yield curve. Was this triggered by options (usually options that expire on the same day)? Or whether it was a daily dip on the way up (in the case of the stock market)? I don't know it! What I do know is that it makes the stock markets in New York more unstable - and/or also the dxy and the us yield curve in Chicago. And that today, on thursday, the revised growth figures for the us economy for the third quarter of 2023 came out. And these have been revised downwards somewhat. "The US economy expanded 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, slightly below 3% in the second estimate, but remaining the biggest growth in six quarters. GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.15 percent from 1948 until 2023, reaching an all-time high of 13.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 1950 and a record low of -7.50 percent in the second quarter of 2020." Which of course made the previously dominant fear of “higher for longer” disappear into thin air. So the FED now has another reason to start looking at interest rate cuts for 2024.
In addition, other weak US economic data were published again, which were initially celebrated in the hope that interest rates would be cut soon - which continued to put selling pressure on the DXY and/or also made the us yield curve cheaper over the course of the day. The stock markets rose during the day. The Fed appears to have done its homework - and both traders and investors in Chicago (DXY & us yield curve) and New York (stock markets) seem to be assuming that Fed Chairman Powell and his co-decision makers are getting to do the the best for the usa of the current fiscal policy. If tomorrow's PCE consumer prices are lower, the current unstable trend is likely to reinforce itself. Because the mood on the stock market seems to be as euphoric as it has been since before the corona virus outbreak, when Donald J. Trump was still president in the White House. While the DXY bulls and/or the us yield curve seem to be running out of steam. Are the stock markets too optimistic with their Goldilocks scenario? The us yield curve is starting to become cheaper again - fears of a recession seem to be decreasing. Will US voters surprise us in 2024 like they did in 2020? And will Joe Biden be elected to the White House again? I don't know that either! But I know that it will concern us all every day in 2024...
2 articles worth reading and a short video worth watching from the last 24 hours
POLITICO
By CALDER MCHUGH: "Voters Don’t Want a Biden-Trump Rematch. This is Why."
yahoo!news
Andrew Romano: Trump is tied with Biden for now — but criminal trials and unpopular plans pose risks for 2024
CNN
Anderson Cooper 360: Polls show Trump is favored higher than Biden on these issues
DXY - Another 48hrs.
may the price action be with you:
and merry christmas!
aaron
The sell-off in the stock markets on Wall Street took place on yesterday's trading day (Wednesday), contrary to the rise in the DXY and/or the increase in the price of the us yield curve. Was this triggered by options (usually options that expire on the same day)? Or whether it was a daily dip on the way up (in the case of the stock market)? I don't know it! What I do know is that it makes the stock markets in New York more unstable - and/or also the dxy and the us yield curve in Chicago. And that today, on thursday, the revised growth figures for the us economy for the third quarter of 2023 came out. And these have been revised downwards somewhat. "The US economy expanded 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, slightly below 3% in the second estimate, but remaining the biggest growth in six quarters. GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.15 percent from 1948 until 2023, reaching an all-time high of 13.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 1950 and a record low of -7.50 percent in the second quarter of 2020." Which of course made the previously dominant fear of “higher for longer” disappear into thin air. So the FED now has another reason to start looking at interest rate cuts for 2024.
In addition, other weak US economic data were published again, which were initially celebrated in the hope that interest rates would be cut soon - which continued to put selling pressure on the DXY and/or also made the us yield curve cheaper over the course of the day. The stock markets rose during the day. The Fed appears to have done its homework - and both traders and investors in Chicago (DXY & us yield curve) and New York (stock markets) seem to be assuming that Fed Chairman Powell and his co-decision makers are getting to do the the best for the usa of the current fiscal policy. If tomorrow's PCE consumer prices are lower, the current unstable trend is likely to reinforce itself. Because the mood on the stock market seems to be as euphoric as it has been since before the corona virus outbreak, when Donald J. Trump was still president in the White House. While the DXY bulls and/or the us yield curve seem to be running out of steam. Are the stock markets too optimistic with their Goldilocks scenario? The us yield curve is starting to become cheaper again - fears of a recession seem to be decreasing. Will US voters surprise us in 2024 like they did in 2020? And will Joe Biden be elected to the White House again? I don't know that either! But I know that it will concern us all every day in 2024...
2 articles worth reading and a short video worth watching from the last 24 hours
POLITICO
By CALDER MCHUGH: "Voters Don’t Want a Biden-Trump Rematch. This is Why."
yahoo!news
Andrew Romano: Trump is tied with Biden for now — but criminal trials and unpopular plans pose risks for 2024
CNN
Anderson Cooper 360: Polls show Trump is favored higher than Biden on these issues
DXY - Another 48hrs.
- Durable Goods Orders YoY
- Personal Income YoY
- Personal Spending YoY
- PCE Price Index YoY
may the price action be with you:
and merry christmas!
aaron
