DXY - 48 hrs.
Hardly any impulses from outside until the middle of next week! Or?
The days before new year's eve and/or new year's day are usually associated with lower volatility: Sure - there are more important things than price action. Family, meeting acquaintances in person that you haven't seen for a long time, or simply switching off from your main job, including WallStreet, even the financial market. So let's take a look at the price action right away - until the FED publishes its FOMC Minutes at 08:00 CET (New York Time) on Wednesday, January 3rd, 2024. And/Or on the following Friday, January 5, 2024, when the US labor market data will traditionally come out (always on the first Friday of each month).
3 complementary articles worth reading
2023/02/23 Bloomberg
John Stepek: Markets Start to Believe in Higher for Longer
2023/09/22 Investopedia
Diccon Hyatt: Fed Officials Reiterate 'Higher For Longer' Mantra
2023/12/07 Reuters
Jamie McGeever: Fed can slash rates and still be 'higher for longer'
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
The bulls/bears fight for the 100 points may have begun?!
The 100 points in the DXY are not only of a psychologically important nature, but also due to the characteristics of the downward trend since the peak of 114.778 points on September 22, 2022. Since then, sooner or later, the DXY has become 3 times traded at medium-term low prices, which were more or less even up/down around 100 points in the short term.
All subsequent interim highs have now also been traded downwards again
so that we can currently prove from the charts that the DXY is currently trading in a short-term downward trend. Which is why I pay the most attention to the last low from 2023/07/14 (99.578 points). Because if the DXY also trade downwards, which I assume today - we always have to assume something (positive bullish? negative bearish? neutral sheep?) - in retrospect we would have formed something like a medium-term, bearish trend reversal formation. Which then, in the case of a trend confirmation, implies a further lower price action. What I`m mostly excepting, today. However, it's not just the sentiment that has changed, but also the scenario - that is, what drives the USD index, if you will - if you can even put it that way. I’m talking about “higher for longer”.
In the 15 min chart today there was slightly increased initial selling pressure again after the Christmas holidays.
On the first working day after Christmas - after Monday and/or Tuesday were largely bank holidays, all aorund the world - the Friday trading range of 101.429 points and/or 101.814 points was broken down - 100.832 points is the last traded low price, of todays wednesday trading session. That´s why is the focus is on the 100 points - and the low of 99.578 points. In July of this year 2023, the topic of “higher for longer” first made the rounds in the mass media. Because us inflation inflated again somewhat in the summer of 2023, in the 3rd quarter of 2023 - before falling again in October '23 and/or November '23.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
Hardly any impulses from outside until the middle of next week! Or?
The days before new year's eve and/or new year's day are usually associated with lower volatility: Sure - there are more important things than price action. Family, meeting acquaintances in person that you haven't seen for a long time, or simply switching off from your main job, including WallStreet, even the financial market. So let's take a look at the price action right away - until the FED publishes its FOMC Minutes at 08:00 CET (New York Time) on Wednesday, January 3rd, 2024. And/Or on the following Friday, January 5, 2024, when the US labor market data will traditionally come out (always on the first Friday of each month).
3 complementary articles worth reading
2023/02/23 Bloomberg
John Stepek: Markets Start to Believe in Higher for Longer
2023/09/22 Investopedia
Diccon Hyatt: Fed Officials Reiterate 'Higher For Longer' Mantra
2023/12/07 Reuters
Jamie McGeever: Fed can slash rates and still be 'higher for longer'
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
The bulls/bears fight for the 100 points may have begun?!
The 100 points in the DXY are not only of a psychologically important nature, but also due to the characteristics of the downward trend since the peak of 114.778 points on September 22, 2022. Since then, sooner or later, the DXY has become 3 times traded at medium-term low prices, which were more or less even up/down around 100 points in the short term.
- 100.820 points @ 2023/02/02
- 100.788 points @ 2023/04/14
- 99.578 points @ 2023/07/14
All subsequent interim highs have now also been traded downwards again
- 2023/08/23 @ 105.883 points
- 2023/05/31 @ 104.699 points
- 2023/10/03 @ 107.348 points
so that we can currently prove from the charts that the DXY is currently trading in a short-term downward trend. Which is why I pay the most attention to the last low from 2023/07/14 (99.578 points). Because if the DXY also trade downwards, which I assume today - we always have to assume something (positive bullish? negative bearish? neutral sheep?) - in retrospect we would have formed something like a medium-term, bearish trend reversal formation. Which then, in the case of a trend confirmation, implies a further lower price action. What I`m mostly excepting, today. However, it's not just the sentiment that has changed, but also the scenario - that is, what drives the USD index, if you will - if you can even put it that way. I’m talking about “higher for longer”.
In the 15 min chart today there was slightly increased initial selling pressure again after the Christmas holidays.
On the first working day after Christmas - after Monday and/or Tuesday were largely bank holidays, all aorund the world - the Friday trading range of 101.429 points and/or 101.814 points was broken down - 100.832 points is the last traded low price, of todays wednesday trading session. That´s why is the focus is on the 100 points - and the low of 99.578 points. In July of this year 2023, the topic of “higher for longer” first made the rounds in the mass media. Because us inflation inflated again somewhat in the summer of 2023, in the 3rd quarter of 2023 - before falling again in October '23 and/or November '23.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
