DXY - 48 hrs.
Today a personal friend who has known me for years, even decades, told me that if one doesn't know you personally and only reads your writings, one might get the impression that you are a critic of the Fed's current monetary policy. No, that's definitely not me! I am even of the opinion that the FED did the best possible thing it could do - precisely in response to the excessive fiscal policy. Because the responsibility for any inflation, at least in my opinion, is usually always to be found in an expansionary fiscal policy. But hardly anyone seems to have discussed this since the financial crisis broke out in 2008 - the FED always has to act as a whipping boy. And so meanwhile a generation of reporters on Wall Street are currently outdoing each other about the alleged chaos at the Fed - but that doesn't bother the stock market, let alone the DXY and/or the us yield curve. The us stock market continues to rise - the DXY and the us yield curve are becoming cheaper. While the reporting in "What About Ism" about the Fed seems to sporadically talk in rage, write in rage. Why? They obviously don't actually believe in a soft landing for the US economy in 2024! They don't believe in a Goldilocks scenario! And argue that the Fed is currently constantly sending contradictory messages: Powell says they have talked about cutting interest rates. Williams says we don't really have that. Fed member Daly says three rate cuts may be necessary. And all FED critics are (strangely) surprised at the Fed's reaction. Which I didn't expect either. But if one assumes that inflation will not flare up again, one can assume logical plausibility in the words of all FED members. So it occurs to me that we daily reporters on Wall Street, like my humble person in the case of DXY, are exposed to the danger of being driven daily. What you also need to be aware of; in order not to make wrong decisions because of speed.
Today's three articles worth reading are:
ZeroHedge
BY TYLER DURDEN: Now It All Makes Sense
FT.COM Opinion Markets Insight
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: The Fed should resist market bullying
Webinar Replay: Fed Watch - Over and Out
During this Office Hours replay, Professor Jeremy Siegel, WisdomTree Senior Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer and Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy discuss the results of the December FOMC meeting. With rate hikes seemingly over, we now shift the discussion to rate cuts and what's to come as a result of that, in 2024.
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
Price action caught in the opening gaps of last week
(bearish GAP on last thursday and/or bullish GAP on last friday).
The DXY tends to be a bit bearish - but not really worth mentioning. Since the FED's interest rate decision and/or the press conference, the DXY has been trading within two GAPS. On Thursday the DXY opened with a bearish GAP - between 102,881 points & 102,783 points. Only to come back on Friday with a bullish GAP - between 102,048 points & 101,9564 points. Sure - it's not a big trading range, let alone important. But at least in my opinion, this market technical fact really really reflects the current sentiment of the DXY! Or?
A fall below 101,770 points (Thursday, December 14th @ 12:30 New York Time) should then put some selling pressure on the DXY again. Because this mark was the last low after the last FED meeting. Which is what I assume! Not tomorrow, though. But over the course of the week. Why should the USD currently rise? Right - to maybe recover for a few trading days. Before it trades a little weaker again. Which is what I'm currently assuming...
may the price action be with you:
aaron
Today a personal friend who has known me for years, even decades, told me that if one doesn't know you personally and only reads your writings, one might get the impression that you are a critic of the Fed's current monetary policy. No, that's definitely not me! I am even of the opinion that the FED did the best possible thing it could do - precisely in response to the excessive fiscal policy. Because the responsibility for any inflation, at least in my opinion, is usually always to be found in an expansionary fiscal policy. But hardly anyone seems to have discussed this since the financial crisis broke out in 2008 - the FED always has to act as a whipping boy. And so meanwhile a generation of reporters on Wall Street are currently outdoing each other about the alleged chaos at the Fed - but that doesn't bother the stock market, let alone the DXY and/or the us yield curve. The us stock market continues to rise - the DXY and the us yield curve are becoming cheaper. While the reporting in "What About Ism" about the Fed seems to sporadically talk in rage, write in rage. Why? They obviously don't actually believe in a soft landing for the US economy in 2024! They don't believe in a Goldilocks scenario! And argue that the Fed is currently constantly sending contradictory messages: Powell says they have talked about cutting interest rates. Williams says we don't really have that. Fed member Daly says three rate cuts may be necessary. And all FED critics are (strangely) surprised at the Fed's reaction. Which I didn't expect either. But if one assumes that inflation will not flare up again, one can assume logical plausibility in the words of all FED members. So it occurs to me that we daily reporters on Wall Street, like my humble person in the case of DXY, are exposed to the danger of being driven daily. What you also need to be aware of; in order not to make wrong decisions because of speed.
Today's three articles worth reading are:
ZeroHedge
BY TYLER DURDEN: Now It All Makes Sense
FT.COM Opinion Markets Insight
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: The Fed should resist market bullying
Webinar Replay: Fed Watch - Over and Out
During this Office Hours replay, Professor Jeremy Siegel, WisdomTree Senior Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer and Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy discuss the results of the December FOMC meeting. With rate hikes seemingly over, we now shift the discussion to rate cuts and what's to come as a result of that, in 2024.
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
Price action caught in the opening gaps of last week
(bearish GAP on last thursday and/or bullish GAP on last friday).
The DXY tends to be a bit bearish - but not really worth mentioning. Since the FED's interest rate decision and/or the press conference, the DXY has been trading within two GAPS. On Thursday the DXY opened with a bearish GAP - between 102,881 points & 102,783 points. Only to come back on Friday with a bullish GAP - between 102,048 points & 101,9564 points. Sure - it's not a big trading range, let alone important. But at least in my opinion, this market technical fact really really reflects the current sentiment of the DXY! Or?
A fall below 101,770 points (Thursday, December 14th @ 12:30 New York Time) should then put some selling pressure on the DXY again. Because this mark was the last low after the last FED meeting. Which is what I assume! Not tomorrow, though. But over the course of the week. Why should the USD currently rise? Right - to maybe recover for a few trading days. Before it trades a little weaker again. Which is what I'm currently assuming...
may the price action be with you:
aaron
