DXY - 48 hrs.
While the DXY has been trading sideways in Chicago since yesterday's publication of the FOMC statement, stocks in New York tend to continue to fall. Even today - when the so-called Santa Claus rally on Wall Street was canceled for the first time in eight years. The US Federal Reserve did not publish any significant new statements about when and how much interest rates will fall this year 2024. But what is striking is that most reporters and/or commentators seem to distance themselves from the expectations of lower interest rates, like investors and/or traders in Chicago, which had bet on up to seven interest rate cuts in the last few weeks (during the bullish stock market rally). But now they are no longer so optimistic, which is perhaps why the stock market bulls are running out of steam - the fantasy of further rising prices are lost! Isn`t it, WallStreet bulls? However, meanwhile the DXY continues to trade in an intact medium-term downward trend in the same period of the last few weeks - while the us stock market became more expensive and/or the us yield curve became cheaper.
The bulls have won the battle for the 100 points in the short term
- but the overarching bearish medium-term downward trend is still intact.
The 100 points in the DXY are not only of a psychologically important nature, but also due to the characteristics of the downward trend since the peak of 114,778 points on September 22, 2022. Since then, sooner or later, the DXY became 3 medium-term traded at rock-bottom prices, which were more or less traded up around 100 points for a short time.
All subsequent interim highs have now also been traded downwards again
so that we can currently prove from a chart perspective that the DXY is currently trading in a short-term upward trend - in an overarching medium-term downward trend. Which is why I pay the most attention to the last low from 2023/07/14 (99,578 points). Because if it were to also trade downwards, which I still assume - we always have to assume something (positive bullish? negative bearish? neutral sheep?) - in retrospect we would have formed something like a medium-term, bearish trend reversal formation. Which then, in the event of a trend confirmation, implies a further lower pirce action. What to expect. Because not only has the sentiment changed, but also the scenario - “higher for longer”. Because it is clear that interest rates will be reduced in 2024! The only question is, how deep? Although many financial market participants, as I tried to describe in the introduction, seem to have expected more interest rate cuts in the last few weeks - and now seem to have capitulated: not so deep interest rate cuts = another more expensive us yield curve. And/or also a rising stock market = due to up to seven interest rate cuts in 2024. While the DXY continues to trade in a medium-term downward trend.
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
X former TWITTER
Game of Trades @GameofTrades
X former TWITTER
Real Vision @RealVision
X former TWITTER
DXY - Another 48 hrs
I assume a lower us unemployment rate, tomorrow - and/or also a lower DXY.
As already written yesterday and the day before yesterday: In the 15M chart of the last few days, since the last low, you can see that the upward trend movement was stopped while the FOMC Statement release. Much more due to the reaction of the majority of foreign exchange market traders and/or investors. However, I see this bullish move as a prelude to the upcoming us jobs data, tomorrow - and/or us inflation data on thursday next week. So my preliminary assessment from yesterday. After the DXY reached 102,629 points yesterday - and the DXY fell in the 15M after the publication of the FOMC statement. Did the short-term bulls cash in today? Or will things go up even further tomorrow? Yes, also on Friday - after the publication of the US labor market data? I don't know it!
As I wrote yesterday, day before: I provisionally define the short-term initial targets for the DXY bulls until the us labor market data at 102,629 points (intraday daily high of the second day after the last FED day). And/Or also at 102,783 points or 102,881 points (the bearish opening GAP after the last FED day). However, be that as it may, it seems that the DXY bears have currently run too deep into the valley too quickly and/or the bulls also seem to be pushing them up again. In any case, things are likely to remain volatile until Friday, around the points just formulated in the DXY. So let's first wait for the numbers, then the reaction of the financial market, and based on that, form your own (new) (old) opinion - and act accordingly. But more about that on Sunday.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
My DXY commentary is always available daily from Sunday to Thursday - usually during trading hours on Wall Street. Except on public holidays - like last time! Because some people asked me. Thank you for any public or private feedback! And hopefully after reading you will always know more than before - that is the purpose of my daily DXY comment...
While the DXY has been trading sideways in Chicago since yesterday's publication of the FOMC statement, stocks in New York tend to continue to fall. Even today - when the so-called Santa Claus rally on Wall Street was canceled for the first time in eight years. The US Federal Reserve did not publish any significant new statements about when and how much interest rates will fall this year 2024. But what is striking is that most reporters and/or commentators seem to distance themselves from the expectations of lower interest rates, like investors and/or traders in Chicago, which had bet on up to seven interest rate cuts in the last few weeks (during the bullish stock market rally). But now they are no longer so optimistic, which is perhaps why the stock market bulls are running out of steam - the fantasy of further rising prices are lost! Isn`t it, WallStreet bulls? However, meanwhile the DXY continues to trade in an intact medium-term downward trend in the same period of the last few weeks - while the us stock market became more expensive and/or the us yield curve became cheaper.
The bulls have won the battle for the 100 points in the short term
- but the overarching bearish medium-term downward trend is still intact.
The 100 points in the DXY are not only of a psychologically important nature, but also due to the characteristics of the downward trend since the peak of 114,778 points on September 22, 2022. Since then, sooner or later, the DXY became 3 medium-term traded at rock-bottom prices, which were more or less traded up around 100 points for a short time.
- 100,820 points 2023/02/02
- 100,788 points 2023/04/14
- 99,578 points 2023/07/14
All subsequent interim highs have now also been traded downwards again
- 2023/08/23 105,883 points
- 2023/05/31 104,699 points
- 2023/10/03 107,348 points
so that we can currently prove from a chart perspective that the DXY is currently trading in a short-term upward trend - in an overarching medium-term downward trend. Which is why I pay the most attention to the last low from 2023/07/14 (99,578 points). Because if it were to also trade downwards, which I still assume - we always have to assume something (positive bullish? negative bearish? neutral sheep?) - in retrospect we would have formed something like a medium-term, bearish trend reversal formation. Which then, in the event of a trend confirmation, implies a further lower pirce action. What to expect. Because not only has the sentiment changed, but also the scenario - “higher for longer”. Because it is clear that interest rates will be reduced in 2024! The only question is, how deep? Although many financial market participants, as I tried to describe in the introduction, seem to have expected more interest rate cuts in the last few weeks - and now seem to have capitulated: not so deep interest rate cuts = another more expensive us yield curve. And/or also a rising stock market = due to up to seven interest rate cuts in 2024. While the DXY continues to trade in a medium-term downward trend.
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
X former TWITTER
Game of Trades @GameofTrades
X former TWITTER
Real Vision @RealVision
X former TWITTER
DXY - Another 48 hrs
I assume a lower us unemployment rate, tomorrow - and/or also a lower DXY.
As already written yesterday and the day before yesterday: In the 15M chart of the last few days, since the last low, you can see that the upward trend movement was stopped while the FOMC Statement release. Much more due to the reaction of the majority of foreign exchange market traders and/or investors. However, I see this bullish move as a prelude to the upcoming us jobs data, tomorrow - and/or us inflation data on thursday next week. So my preliminary assessment from yesterday. After the DXY reached 102,629 points yesterday - and the DXY fell in the 15M after the publication of the FOMC statement. Did the short-term bulls cash in today? Or will things go up even further tomorrow? Yes, also on Friday - after the publication of the US labor market data? I don't know it!
As I wrote yesterday, day before: I provisionally define the short-term initial targets for the DXY bulls until the us labor market data at 102,629 points (intraday daily high of the second day after the last FED day). And/Or also at 102,783 points or 102,881 points (the bearish opening GAP after the last FED day). However, be that as it may, it seems that the DXY bears have currently run too deep into the valley too quickly and/or the bulls also seem to be pushing them up again. In any case, things are likely to remain volatile until Friday, around the points just formulated in the DXY. So let's first wait for the numbers, then the reaction of the financial market, and based on that, form your own (new) (old) opinion - and act accordingly. But more about that on Sunday.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
My DXY commentary is always available daily from Sunday to Thursday - usually during trading hours on Wall Street. Except on public holidays - like last time! Because some people asked me. Thank you for any public or private feedback! And hopefully after reading you will always know more than before - that is the purpose of my daily DXY comment...
