DXY - 48 hrs.
The US Federal Reserve Bank is noticeably holding back on details about the interest rate turnaround. It is practically certain that interest rates will fall in 2024. The Fed's base scenario is currently three interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each, as the dot plot already published with the interest rate decision showed. But the uncertainty is very high. Because Powell does not want to commit itself and certainly does not want to confirm market expectations of six interest rate cuts by the end of the year. What the market in chicago is excepting. That`s why the stock market showed increased volatility in response to the minutes release on Wednesday evening - and come a little bit back after their release.
FOMC Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (December 12–13, 2023)
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, December 12, 2023, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 13, 2023, at 9:00 a.m.1
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
In the 15M chart of the last few days, since the last low, you can see that the upward trend movement was stopped by the FED minutes today. And/Or also, based on the reaction of the majority of forex market traders or investors. Whatever. I see this bullish move as a prelude to the upcoming us jobs data on friday - and us inflation data on thursday next week. So my preliminary assessment from yesterday remains. After the DXY reached 102,629 points during today's day - and the DXY fell in the 15M after the publication of the FOMC statement. Did the short-term bulls realize their profits today? Or will the DXY go up even further tomorrow? Yes, even on Friday - after the publication of the us labor market data? I don't know it! But what I know I wrote yesterday: I provisionally define the short-term initial targets for the DXY bulls until the US labor market data at 102,629 points (intraday daily high of the second day after the last FED day). And/or also at 102,783 points or 102,881 points (the bearish opening GAP after the last FED day). However, be that as it may, it seems that the DXY bears have currently run too deep into the valley too quickly and/or the bulls also seem to be pushing them up again. In any case, things are likely to remain volatile until Friday, around the points just formulated in the DXY. So let's first wait for the numbers, then the reaction of the financial market, and based on that, form your own (new) (old) opinion - and act accordingly. But that then on Sunday.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
My DXY commentary is always available daily from Sunday (usually before asia trading session hours) to Thursday (usually during trading hours on Wall Street). Except on public holidays - like last time! Because some people asked me. Thank you for any public and/or private feedback! I hope after reading you will always know more than before - that is the purpose of my daily DXY comment...
The US Federal Reserve Bank is noticeably holding back on details about the interest rate turnaround. It is practically certain that interest rates will fall in 2024. The Fed's base scenario is currently three interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each, as the dot plot already published with the interest rate decision showed. But the uncertainty is very high. Because Powell does not want to commit itself and certainly does not want to confirm market expectations of six interest rate cuts by the end of the year. What the market in chicago is excepting. That`s why the stock market showed increased volatility in response to the minutes release on Wednesday evening - and come a little bit back after their release.
- FED OFFICIALS SAW POLICY REMAINING RESTRICTIVE FOR SOME TIME
- PARTICIPANTS OBSERVED PROGRESS ON INFLATION HAD BEEN UNEVEN ACROSS COMPONENTS, NOTED CORE SERVICES PRICES STILL RISING AT ELEVATED PACE
- THOSE PARTICIPANTS POINTED TO DOWNSIDE RISKS TO THE ECONOMY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OVERLY RESTRICTIVE STANCE
- SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS OBSERVED THAT CIRCUMSTANCES MIGHT WARRANT KEEPING POLICY RATE AT CURRENT LEVEL LONGER THAN THEY CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE
- PARTICIPANTS GENERALLY REAFFIRMED IT WOULD BE APPROPRIATE FOR POLICY TO REMAIN RESTRICTIVE UNTIL INFLATION WAS CLEARLY MOVING DOWN SUSTAINABLY.
FOMC Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (December 12–13, 2023)
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, December 12, 2023, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 13, 2023, at 9:00 a.m.1
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
In the 15M chart of the last few days, since the last low, you can see that the upward trend movement was stopped by the FED minutes today. And/Or also, based on the reaction of the majority of forex market traders or investors. Whatever. I see this bullish move as a prelude to the upcoming us jobs data on friday - and us inflation data on thursday next week. So my preliminary assessment from yesterday remains. After the DXY reached 102,629 points during today's day - and the DXY fell in the 15M after the publication of the FOMC statement. Did the short-term bulls realize their profits today? Or will the DXY go up even further tomorrow? Yes, even on Friday - after the publication of the us labor market data? I don't know it! But what I know I wrote yesterday: I provisionally define the short-term initial targets for the DXY bulls until the US labor market data at 102,629 points (intraday daily high of the second day after the last FED day). And/or also at 102,783 points or 102,881 points (the bearish opening GAP after the last FED day). However, be that as it may, it seems that the DXY bears have currently run too deep into the valley too quickly and/or the bulls also seem to be pushing them up again. In any case, things are likely to remain volatile until Friday, around the points just formulated in the DXY. So let's first wait for the numbers, then the reaction of the financial market, and based on that, form your own (new) (old) opinion - and act accordingly. But that then on Sunday.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
My DXY commentary is always available daily from Sunday (usually before asia trading session hours) to Thursday (usually during trading hours on Wall Street). Except on public holidays - like last time! Because some people asked me. Thank you for any public and/or private feedback! I hope after reading you will always know more than before - that is the purpose of my daily DXY comment...
