DXY - 48 hrs.
After Fed Chairman Powell said that the topic of interest rate cuts had been discussed, there was no stopping the markets: DXY fell, us yield curve became cheaper, and/or the stock markets went up. Finally, the majority of observers, financial market traders and/or investors, seemed to hear what they wanted to hear. The result: financial conditions loosened further, so that commidity prices in particular shot up. I tweeted at the end of June 2023 and/or the beginning of July 2023 that the FED had done its job. But in the 3rd quarter of this year 2023, us inflation rose slightly again, so we all have to get back on the timeline for future interest rate cuts. And that's exactly what seems to have happened at the end of last week, after the Fed's regular meeting, more or less. Although the potential for a rebound in inflation can never be completely ruled out. Especially when the commodity price action surprisly also rise - as we witnessed at the end of last week. This is probably why the statements were made by the two Fed members Williams ("don't really talk about interest rate cuts") and Bostic on Friday, who obviously tried to verbally send the black and white long/short thinking of the majority of financial market participants back into the gray zone.
Be that as it may, let alone be, I am now assuming that the FED will turn down interest rates three times in 2024. Just like it says in the plots - everything else is an exaggeration and/or understatement of financial market participants who are already betting on a lot more, investing on a lot more, and/or trading on a lot more rate cuts. However, after the monetary policy change by Fed Chairman Powell, Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley, a famous bear on Wall Street, has now publicly and verbally capitulated. “The chance of a soft landing for the US economy has increased the chance of a soft landing for the US economy, which is positive for the stock markets,” said Wilson. Just a week ago, Wilson pointed out the weakening prospects for companies in the S&P 500 and predicted lower prices for the US stock markets. The US stock market is currently more overbought than it has been for many years - and the US banks are exceeding themselves in their price targets for the us leading index S&P 500 in 2024. This is the exact opposite of the sentiment a year ago in 2023: back then everyone was pessimistic - we know what happened this year 2023.
Professor Siegel
A Fully Justified Rally in the Markets
Business Insider
Aruni Soni: The Fed may be forced to 'reverse course' if it appeases markets with big rate cuts, Mohamed El-Erian says
Zerohedge
PORTFOLIO ARMOR: Two More Threats To Dollar Supremacy
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
Today was a weak trading day as far as the DXY is concerned - in terms of price action.
Hardly any change! 102.632, 102.633, and/or 102.634 points were the highest prices, right after trading opened for this week. Which were traded around 1900 New York Time. Otherwise, there was no new moving news today, so the DXY continued to trade sideways, somewhat lighter. However, within an extremely small framework. At 151 points. While the low was traded at 102,483 points on Monday. It seems that the foreign exchange market has already said goodbye to the Christmas holiday. Nevertheless, from now on I will publicly express my opinion about the DXY here every day. And I hope that every day after reading it you will be at least a little wiser than before.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
After Fed Chairman Powell said that the topic of interest rate cuts had been discussed, there was no stopping the markets: DXY fell, us yield curve became cheaper, and/or the stock markets went up. Finally, the majority of observers, financial market traders and/or investors, seemed to hear what they wanted to hear. The result: financial conditions loosened further, so that commidity prices in particular shot up. I tweeted at the end of June 2023 and/or the beginning of July 2023 that the FED had done its job. But in the 3rd quarter of this year 2023, us inflation rose slightly again, so we all have to get back on the timeline for future interest rate cuts. And that's exactly what seems to have happened at the end of last week, after the Fed's regular meeting, more or less. Although the potential for a rebound in inflation can never be completely ruled out. Especially when the commodity price action surprisly also rise - as we witnessed at the end of last week. This is probably why the statements were made by the two Fed members Williams ("don't really talk about interest rate cuts") and Bostic on Friday, who obviously tried to verbally send the black and white long/short thinking of the majority of financial market participants back into the gray zone.
Be that as it may, let alone be, I am now assuming that the FED will turn down interest rates three times in 2024. Just like it says in the plots - everything else is an exaggeration and/or understatement of financial market participants who are already betting on a lot more, investing on a lot more, and/or trading on a lot more rate cuts. However, after the monetary policy change by Fed Chairman Powell, Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley, a famous bear on Wall Street, has now publicly and verbally capitulated. “The chance of a soft landing for the US economy has increased the chance of a soft landing for the US economy, which is positive for the stock markets,” said Wilson. Just a week ago, Wilson pointed out the weakening prospects for companies in the S&P 500 and predicted lower prices for the US stock markets. The US stock market is currently more overbought than it has been for many years - and the US banks are exceeding themselves in their price targets for the us leading index S&P 500 in 2024. This is the exact opposite of the sentiment a year ago in 2023: back then everyone was pessimistic - we know what happened this year 2023.
Professor Siegel
A Fully Justified Rally in the Markets
Business Insider
Aruni Soni: The Fed may be forced to 'reverse course' if it appeases markets with big rate cuts, Mohamed El-Erian says
Zerohedge
PORTFOLIO ARMOR: Two More Threats To Dollar Supremacy
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
Today was a weak trading day as far as the DXY is concerned - in terms of price action.
Hardly any change! 102.632, 102.633, and/or 102.634 points were the highest prices, right after trading opened for this week. Which were traded around 1900 New York Time. Otherwise, there was no new moving news today, so the DXY continued to trade sideways, somewhat lighter. However, within an extremely small framework. At 151 points. While the low was traded at 102,483 points on Monday. It seems that the foreign exchange market has already said goodbye to the Christmas holiday. Nevertheless, from now on I will publicly express my opinion about the DXY here every day. And I hope that every day after reading it you will be at least a little wiser than before.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
