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2018 has been a very exciting year for the dollar thus far. Volatility has sky rocketed in the last couple of months, the FED has indicated a reduction in QE and Donald Trump has been tweeting away. In my view, I believe the dollar holds a more bearish outlook due to the following factors:
1. Rise in political tensions between China and US
A perfect shooting star pattern on a descending trend line for the Dollar. Reversal at play off of this so expect some weakness for the Dollar this week!
dollar index - h4 chart - selling on rallies due to dollars bearish trend. 3 drive reversal setup giving us confirmation of the weekly resistance holding
Break below support line would indicate bear market in the dollar. Gold should therefore outperform to the upside.
Head and Shoulders, 61.8 fib retracement and daily resistance respected,
Also if we go down to the 4hr chart there was a doji candle this Friday. Bearish bias currently
Or will the 50% fib hold it. I doubt it. Look at last time it broke 200-hr MA
The DXY likely to see more downside in the short term.
If this is the case, other currencies should see an upside for the duration.
Dollar Index Monthly - Structure speaks for itself. Big moves to the downside expected. This correlates well with global indices and Oil they are also indicating a big correction on larger timeframes technically.
Ok, now I am agree with H&S on DXY
I am bearish now
Neck line is at 99 level, profit target approximately around 96.6 area.
Bearish outlook below 101.38, 99.85 and 99.
Daily close below 98.85 - bearish scenario to 97.85 and next below - 96.40.
Daily close above 100.97 - bullish scenario to 101.97 and 103.82
Daily close below 99 zone will open the way to 97.77 and 96.33
Alternatively it will bounce of 99 and go back to 99.75