5500 DRAFT 7-6, 2468 RUNAWAY TOP AND 2303 RUG PULL, DETAILED
Introduction - After proof checking DRAFT 7-5 for all weak spots, this updated and detailed draft is the base case guide going into today's open in six and a half hours.
Details - All background information, data, concepts, suggestions, and etc... can be found in previous DRAFT 7-5. This post is for continuous updates/notes/commentary on live price action from Sunday open to Monday NY close. Please understand that my #1 focus is on my execution.
My #2 focus is to comment on live price action as much AS I CAN. Between these two things, I am unlikely to have time to answer any question you may have. It is my view that the previous DRAFT 7-5 would have answered all relevant questions going to today's open.
Details - All background information, data, concepts, suggestions, and etc... can be found in previous DRAFT 7-5. This post is for continuous updates/notes/commentary on live price action from Sunday open to Monday NY close. Please understand that my #1 focus is on my execution.
My #2 focus is to comment on live price action as much AS I CAN. Between these two things, I am unlikely to have time to answer any question you may have. It is my view that the previous DRAFT 7-5 would have answered all relevant questions going to today's open.
Comment:
AND FOR FUTURES PRICES VS 44-YEAR TREND LINE? (2350-ish?)
a) Friday front contract was already 2350 high and closed 2349.10
b) the odds STRONGLY FAVOR TAKING OUT THIS LINE
c) but it's the 2340 spot vs 2360 futures level that determine when train leaves tonight
a) Friday front contract was already 2350 high and closed 2349.10
b) the odds STRONGLY FAVOR TAKING OUT THIS LINE
c) but it's the 2340 spot vs 2360 futures level that determine when train leaves tonight
Comment:
4:56 PM ET, 64 minutes until open
a) open probably gap up, if gap up 2338 or less
b) should come back to 2330 before breaking 2340 (again should)
c) once 2340 taken out, should be a straight line to 2380 followed by retrace, then higher
d) at any point I see price not following its implied route
e) I'll post something as soon as I can
a) open probably gap up, if gap up 2338 or less
b) should come back to 2330 before breaking 2340 (again should)
c) once 2340 taken out, should be a straight line to 2380 followed by retrace, then higher
d) at any point I see price not following its implied route
e) I'll post something as soon as I can
Comment:
f) if price is sticking to to script then I won't comment much
Comment:
g) as a reminder, the setup calls for 2465 in 3 maybe four hours
h) so the first 4 hours obviously the most critical
h) so the first 4 hours obviously the most critical
Comment:
6:01, wait for it to bounce up.
a) don't entry yet
b) wait
a) don't entry yet
b) wait
Comment:
6:03 entry now with a tight stop
Comment:
6:09, 2319 HAS TO HOLD..
a) if it doesn't
b) do nothing, just wait
a) if it doesn't
b) do nothing, just wait
Comment:
6:21 2309.xx, I'm stopped out and just watching what it wants to do here.
a) the setup is still there
b) it hasn't broken it
c) it also doesn't have an "immediate bearish move" that you can short
d) so I am just watching for the next move
a) the setup is still there
b) it hasn't broken it
c) it also doesn't have an "immediate bearish move" that you can short
d) so I am just watching for the next move
Comment:
6:40 PM, 2310.xx I am long again, with 2304 stop.
b) I think this turns up again within 90 minutes
c) if it doesn't, what else does it do here?
d) go sideways?
b) I think this turns up again within 90 minutes
c) if it doesn't, what else does it do here?
d) go sideways?
Comment:
7:02, I really think it should turn up hard here in maybe 15-30 min.
Comment:
7:25 PM, 2312.XX, we are going up, it just has to make this turn
a) the way it turns is important
b) bc the route now is obviously different
c) but I am JUST AS BULLISH, but not as clear on what the route should be after 2335
d) I'm looking
a) the way it turns is important
b) bc the route now is obviously different
c) but I am JUST AS BULLISH, but not as clear on what the route should be after 2335
d) I'm looking
Comment:
Comment:
7:42 PM, for chart above:
a) that's the best I can do right now
b) so first we go up to 2335-2340
c) then we have a zone that is "sideways to up"
d) before going up up to 2380
a) that's the best I can do right now
b) so first we go up to 2335-2340
c) then we have a zone that is "sideways to up"
d) before going up up to 2380
Comment:
8:12 PM, 2310.xx, I know this feels stupid, but on my chart the move is coming.
a) it just needs to reach that escape momentum from the drop
b) we are still favored to move all the way up
a) it just needs to reach that escape momentum from the drop
b) we are still favored to move all the way up
Comment:
8:31 PM ET, 2308.XX be patient, it's coming
a) if it's not a huge move we wouldn't be doing this
b) hang in there
a) if it's not a huge move we wouldn't be doing this
b) hang in there
Comment:
9:02 I didn't get stopped out. I'm still here.
Comment:
9:27 PM 2312.XX, It's slow. I KNOW that. Just stay with it. It's coming.
Comment:
9:35 PM, 2316.XX, Just a while longer, it will get interesting.
a) If there's not a lot to make here.
b) I wouldn't be BEGGING you to stay with it.
c) Be patient here.
d) I am that guy that do things that are worth it.
e) If it's not worth it, I would've wrapped it up already.
f) And I do that ALL THE TIME.
g) Not here, we have to give it time because the size is SOOOO worth it.
a) If there's not a lot to make here.
b) I wouldn't be BEGGING you to stay with it.
c) Be patient here.
d) I am that guy that do things that are worth it.
e) If it's not worth it, I would've wrapped it up already.
f) And I do that ALL THE TIME.
g) Not here, we have to give it time because the size is SOOOO worth it.
Comment:
9:48 PM, Still 16.xx, but it's gearing up for a push to 2339.
Comment:
9:56 PM, 2321.xx, still a bit slow, but we're gonna get there.
a) I've been working on the new route this entire time
b) usually, you have setup, and it starts by 25 pt rug pull...
c) you wrap it and go home
d) NOT THIS ONE...
e) it's not (YET) obvious we can't hit 2425
f) 2465 a bit too high, but its STILL EARLY
g) why?
h) because RESETTING AT 2335, WE ONLY 3 HOURS
i) and we have 6 until 3 AM ET when London bears show up
j) we're doing fine
a) I've been working on the new route this entire time
b) usually, you have setup, and it starts by 25 pt rug pull...
c) you wrap it and go home
d) NOT THIS ONE...
e) it's not (YET) obvious we can't hit 2425
f) 2465 a bit too high, but its STILL EARLY
g) why?
h) because RESETTING AT 2335, WE ONLY 3 HOURS
i) and we have 6 until 3 AM ET when London bears show up
j) we're doing fine
Comment:
k) typo on h) WE ONLY "NEED" 3 HOURS
l) meaning once we settle up at 2335, we only need 3 hours to get to 2425
m) I know it sounds insane ...
n) but if I didn't see it on my end, I wouldn't be saying stay with it all the time
l) meaning once we settle up at 2335, we only need 3 hours to get to 2425
m) I know it sounds insane ...
n) but if I didn't see it on my end, I wouldn't be saying stay with it all the time
Comment:
10:08 PM ET.. If you've followed my live notes before..
a) there MANY TIMES I've wrapped up a post BECAUSE OF 2 POINT SWING
b) this time it dropped 27 off the bat
c) I got stopped out twice
d) and at 2303.xx in the last hour, still got back in
e) and SAID I'M STILL HERE
f) because it's still saying up at least 100
g) I HAVE TO STAY!
a) there MANY TIMES I've wrapped up a post BECAUSE OF 2 POINT SWING
b) this time it dropped 27 off the bat
c) I got stopped out twice
d) and at 2303.xx in the last hour, still got back in
e) and SAID I'M STILL HERE
f) because it's still saying up at least 100
g) I HAVE TO STAY!
Comment:
Comment:
a) in chart above... it's Sunday open
b) it's ok we get it wrong, we have stops and we still here
c) but the trend maps showed CONTINUOUSLY FAVORED TO BREAK UP + BREAKOUT
d) so 2329.xx as I type
e) once we hit 2340, taking a smoking break not a bad idea
f) bc it's going to have to zig zag maybe 30-min to an hour
g) THEN WE GOING 2380!
b) it's ok we get it wrong, we have stops and we still here
c) but the trend maps showed CONTINUOUSLY FAVORED TO BREAK UP + BREAKOUT
d) so 2329.xx as I type
e) once we hit 2340, taking a smoking break not a bad idea
f) bc it's going to have to zig zag maybe 30-min to an hour
g) THEN WE GOING 2380!
Comment:
h) 10:16, bid/ask just tagged 2333.xx, it has enough gas to get to 2340, maybe 41
Comment:
10:21, 28.xx, we need to get "settle down at 2335, then the 3 hour marker starts
a) so let's say four hours from now
b) meaning by 2:20 AM, we have a legit shot at 2425
a) so let's say four hours from now
b) meaning by 2:20 AM, we have a legit shot at 2425
Comment:
Comment:
a) and silver IS NOT LOOKING BACK
b) mean time gold, ONLY DOWN 1.1%... at the start
c) but only up like $3 as I type...
d) and STILL NEED TO "SETUP" to move up
e) silver is like, F setting up!, see ya!
b) mean time gold, ONLY DOWN 1.1%... at the start
c) but only up like $3 as I type...
d) and STILL NEED TO "SETUP" to move up
e) silver is like, F setting up!, see ya!
Comment:
10:37 PM, JUST TAGGED 2342.XX and I took money off the table
a) didn't I tell you it's going for 39
b) but had enough gas for 40 MAYBE 41
c) and 41.63 as I type
a) didn't I tell you it's going for 39
b) but had enough gas for 40 MAYBE 41
c) and 41.63 as I type
Comment:
d) and gold now shooting past Bollinger's too 49.xx as I type
Comment:
10:40 after tagging 2353, I OBVIOUSLY DO NOT HAVE THE ROUTE RIGHT
a) so be aware
b) and OBVIOUSLY ... 2465 STILL A TARGET NOW
a) so be aware
b) and OBVIOUSLY ... 2465 STILL A TARGET NOW
Comment:
c) 10:43 gotta get my money right
d) I don't know what it should look like now
e) because it's IGNORING THE RULES NOW
d) I don't know what it should look like now
e) because it's IGNORING THE RULES NOW
Comment:
10:49 PM ET, if it blasts up..
a) its 2380.. what else can it be?
b) its impossible for me to "route a move like this" LIVE...
c) you can hold to 2425
a) its 2380.. what else can it be?
b) its impossible for me to "route a move like this" LIVE...
c) you can hold to 2425
Comment:
10:52, how many times have you heard me say...
a) I know it's going up
b) I just don't know the route
c) I put so much work into chart at top
d) MISSED TOTALLY
e) but WHILE PREPARING IT, I understood how strong the position was
f) that's why I didn't flinch when it dropped 27
g) if I ever beg you like that again to stay with it
h) it SHOULD BE MONEY
a) I know it's going up
b) I just don't know the route
c) I put so much work into chart at top
d) MISSED TOTALLY
e) but WHILE PREPARING IT, I understood how strong the position was
f) that's why I didn't flinch when it dropped 27
g) if I ever beg you like that again to stay with it
h) it SHOULD BE MONEY
Comment:
10:56 PM ET... TIME LEFT IS ABOUT 150 MINUTES
a) top should come by 1:30 AM ET
b) and still expecting 2465
c) F YEAH!
d) now that it JUST REFUSES TO GO SIDEWAYS FOR AN HOUR
a) top should come by 1:30 AM ET
b) and still expecting 2465
c) F YEAH!
d) now that it JUST REFUSES TO GO SIDEWAYS FOR AN HOUR
Comment:
11:04 PM ET... 2345.xx, play chart at top
a) see all those numbers on the left side?
b) WE HAVE ONLY PASSED THE FIRST ONE
c) there's a few more to go
a) see all those numbers on the left side?
b) WE HAVE ONLY PASSED THE FIRST ONE
c) there's a few more to go
Comment:
11:13 PM ET, 2345.XX it will be done with this "mini sideways moves soon"...
a) so my next target form here is 2380
b) but honestly bc of its position at 2350 just now
c) 2400 makes more sense than 2380
d) I can't chart this time bc this will be done in 2 hours and change
e) just remember
f) min high 2425 max high 2465
a) so my next target form here is 2380
b) but honestly bc of its position at 2350 just now
c) 2400 makes more sense than 2380
d) I can't chart this time bc this will be done in 2 hours and change
e) just remember
f) min high 2425 max high 2465
Comment:
11:37 PM ET, added back at 41.xx here
a) I just don't see it coming down a lot more than this
b) there's basically 3 moves left
c) the slow limb to 48
d) the spike to what I think should be 2410+
e) and the last leg to top
a) I just don't see it coming down a lot more than this
b) there's basically 3 moves left
c) the slow limb to 48
d) the spike to what I think should be 2410+
e) and the last leg to top
Comment:
11:42, gearing up for move to 2410 (think)
a) you'll see a slow climb
b) then finishing with a spike
a) you'll see a slow climb
b) then finishing with a spike
Comment:
11:59 PM ET, 80 min of sideways already
a) so ended up longer
b) means it's ready
c) ALSO MEANS THE MOVES MIGHT JUST BE ONE
d) meaning since the sideways took too long
e) it could just run up 120 from 21345
f) unlikely without retracing some
g) but 80 min of sideways here is kind of long
a) so ended up longer
b) means it's ready
c) ALSO MEANS THE MOVES MIGHT JUST BE ONE
d) meaning since the sideways took too long
e) it could just run up 120 from 21345
f) unlikely without retracing some
g) but 80 min of sideways here is kind of long
Comment:
12:11 AM ET, 2343.xx.this move has 80 minutes to happen.
a) so it must start soon
b) it can't just wait for the last 10 minutes
c) so we are at that point that the overall structure start to evolve into something else
d) not bearish, just different
e) so we need a move past 53 soon
a) so it must start soon
b) it can't just wait for the last 10 minutes
c) so we are at that point that the overall structure start to evolve into something else
d) not bearish, just different
e) so we need a move past 53 soon
Comment:
12:25 AM ET 2342.XX, it needs to happen or it will run out of time
a) as time runs out...
b) the only move is the one move
c) bc zig zag two tops take twice as long (at least)
d) minutes away from one big top zone
a) as time runs out...
b) the only move is the one move
c) bc zig zag two tops take twice as long (at least)
d) minutes away from one big top zone
Comment:
12:35 AM 44.XX, gotta be the last chance for a huge run right here
a) if not I don't see how it could work later
b) not saying it can't go up
c) just no big giant move
d) and then you have to take a visit to stair case city
a) if not I don't see how it could work later
b) not saying it can't go up
c) just no big giant move
d) and then you have to take a visit to stair case city
Comment:
12:46 AM ET... price has taken all the necessary steps and some extra
a) I'm supposed to say it won't happen here
b) so odds are beginning to favor something else
c) what that something else is?
d) give me a few minutes
a) I'm supposed to say it won't happen here
b) so odds are beginning to favor something else
c) what that something else is?
d) give me a few minutes
Comment:
12:50, first you need a stop in case of annoying retraces
Comment:
12:53, can we just get a miracle last second giant rally?
a) how do we make it here and HAVE THAT NOT HAPPEN?
b) that's so disappointing
c) I'm not even sure what's supposed to happen here
d) besides a number of just small moves either direction
e) hold on
a) how do we make it here and HAVE THAT NOT HAPPEN?
b) that's so disappointing
c) I'm not even sure what's supposed to happen here
d) besides a number of just small moves either direction
e) hold on
Comment:
1:00 AM ET, 42.xx I'm really tired so summing this up
1) we should get one more move up
2) any size
3) just doesn't make any sense for it to not make one more move
4) so I do see 2254 again, maybe even soon
1) we should get one more move up
2) any size
3) just doesn't make any sense for it to not make one more move
4) so I do see 2254 again, maybe even soon
Comment:
5) but I don't know if that will become something or not
6) bc the odds have started favoring "or not"
7) so I'm going to watch maybe another hour in case something interesting happens
8) and that's it
6) bc the odds have started favoring "or not"
7) so I'm going to watch maybe another hour in case something interesting happens
8) and that's it
Comment:
1:07 AM ET.. I just do not get it
a) how do you make EVERY SINGLE MOVE TO GET IN POSITION
b) with all trends in position
c) and not make the move?
d) my head hurts
a) how do you make EVERY SINGLE MOVE TO GET IN POSITION
b) with all trends in position
c) and not make the move?
d) my head hurts
Comment:
1:09 AM I can't think right now bc of disappointment. So be careful. I don't have anything to add here.
Comment:
1:21 I get why. It 's waiting for specific waves
a) here's the problem...
b) those waves get ready right after London opens
c) I've never seen London buy gold meaningfully
d) I've only seen them sell consistently
e) so I don't know what to make of it
f) but I can say this
1) the setup is still on going
2) maybe for 3 hours
3) so in theory, the spike to 2465 could still happen after London opens
4) but I have reservations about 3AM specifically as the worst hour of the day for gold
5) but its also true that 3AM to 4 AM is the only time TOKYO AND LONDON OVERLAP
6) blah blah blah
7) so it's not over
8) good night
a) here's the problem...
b) those waves get ready right after London opens
c) I've never seen London buy gold meaningfully
d) I've only seen them sell consistently
e) so I don't know what to make of it
f) but I can say this
1) the setup is still on going
2) maybe for 3 hours
3) so in theory, the spike to 2465 could still happen after London opens
4) but I have reservations about 3AM specifically as the worst hour of the day for gold
5) but its also true that 3AM to 4 AM is the only time TOKYO AND LONDON OVERLAP
6) blah blah blah
7) so it's not over
8) good night
Comment:
9) I'm still here
10) if you think I did all that and not wait a couple more hours?
11) no way
10) if you think I did all that and not wait a couple more hours?
11) no way
Comment:
1:46 AM ET, THIS MOVE TO 2335 PROBABLY KILLED IT
a) not entirely
b) but barring a hard swing up to correct it
c) staying at 2335 to 3AM will more or less destroy the setup
d) I'm going to bed
a) not entirely
b) but barring a hard swing up to correct it
c) staying at 2335 to 3AM will more or less destroy the setup
d) I'm going to bed
Comment:
2:04 AM ET, IT'S DEAD, TO MAKE IT OFFICIAL
Comment:
WARNING!
- London just opened
- I my trend maps lighting up bearishly
- it is like all they do is sell
- so BE AWARE
- London just opened
- I my trend maps lighting up bearishly
- it is like all they do is sell
- so BE AWARE
Comment:
2:35 I see the move up to 39, on my end the setup is over. goodnight. END OF POST
Comment:
- so there are no misunderstandings
- I'm going to bed and I don't see
- doesn't mean it can't develop into something later
- I just don't see how right now
- I'm going to bed and I don't see
- doesn't mean it can't develop into something later
- I just don't see how right now
Comment:
For regulars --
1) stay long overall
2) we will hit 2465 sometimes this week
3) even though I wont have any thing specific up
4) that target is legit hitting this week
1) stay long overall
2) we will hit 2465 sometimes this week
3) even though I wont have any thing specific up
4) that target is legit hitting this week
Comment:
GETTING TIRED OF NAILING HALF A MOVE SO THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS 7-7:
Related Ideas
a) be aware that difference between prices is on sliding scale
b) front contract for June GCM4, is 2349.10, so +19.5 vs spot
c) but as spot moves higher, futures will start to catch down
d) usually, for 5.8% move, that would wipe out all the difference
e) and might even push the other way
g) THIS TIME I'm not so sure
h) my math says at spot 2465, front contract would still be 2475+ (8 or more)
i) which is CRAZY!
j) what is crazier?
k) if I'm overestimating (I'll review later) and it's actually +16
l) this would essentially confirm my view of "new world of prices"