5500 7-9 NO TIME ROUGH DRAFT, 2460 AND 2....370?
Intro - Don't have any time this morning, so to sum it dungo jinxed London sessio now we have to do 2460 the hard way.
Details - Ditto. Obviously 2460 right? Is that still obvious? Will add if time.
Details - Ditto. Obviously 2460 right? Is that still obvious? Will add if time.
Comment:
By the way - This is a very rough draft ok? Take it easy. But just stay long overall.
Comment:
9:59 AM 2404.XX finally in 2400s.
a) remember that today is bar 99
b) and Sunday night is 1/3 of bar 100
c) that's it for this part of the rally
d) I see a double top coming at 2450-2460
e) then WE SHOULD correct some before to to 25xx
f) the standard pattern (now that 2400s are late) is a check to 2370
g) but I don't know if bears have a setup for that
h) so?
i) so how about 2395? something like that
j) we will get to that Monday-Tuesday
k) in the meantime, it is overall long to 2450-60
l) I think we can do 2440s today
m) consider what happened yesterday
n) NY got us from 2327 to 2377
o) Tokyo got us to 2395 and London add 5 pts
p) so it's obvious the money is coming out of NY
q) be aware of this theme as we move into 25xx and 26xx
r) that's a wrap for Friday notes
a) remember that today is bar 99
b) and Sunday night is 1/3 of bar 100
c) that's it for this part of the rally
d) I see a double top coming at 2450-2460
e) then WE SHOULD correct some before to to 25xx
f) the standard pattern (now that 2400s are late) is a check to 2370
g) but I don't know if bears have a setup for that
h) so?
i) so how about 2395? something like that
j) we will get to that Monday-Tuesday
k) in the meantime, it is overall long to 2450-60
l) I think we can do 2440s today
m) consider what happened yesterday
n) NY got us from 2327 to 2377
o) Tokyo got us to 2395 and London add 5 pts
p) so it's obvious the money is coming out of NY
q) be aware of this theme as we move into 25xx and 26xx
r) that's a wrap for Friday notes
Comment:
12:17, wooo.. just walked by
a) why is 2430 a big deal?
b) we were going to get a rug pull anyway
c) but I didn't think that would happen until 50-60, right?
d) what does that mean?
e) remember DRAFT 6-2, 6-3?
f) it makes you think:
a) why is 2430 a big deal?
b) we were going to get a rug pull anyway
c) but I didn't think that would happen until 50-60, right?
d) what does that mean?
e) remember DRAFT 6-2, 6-3?
f) it makes you think:
Comment:
Comment:
g) go play that, that sucker just keeps on hitting
h) I don't have anything right now, just letting you know there are 2 situations here
i) I don't think it's that one, but I haven't look at new curves to "say that with confidence"
j) and have a good weekend, anyone want to hire a good forecaster?
k) if so let me know soon, or I'm going to take my next job
h) I don't have anything right now, just letting you know there are 2 situations here
i) I don't think it's that one, but I haven't look at new curves to "say that with confidence"
j) and have a good weekend, anyone want to hire a good forecaster?
k) if so let me know soon, or I'm going to take my next job
Comment:
l) by the way, it looks just like that one, dammit
n) can't help you now
n) can't help you now
Comment:
o) I said in the last post that it scared me ... because it hit so strong so early...
p) that gave it "room for error"
q) but once we were well over 2400s, I took a coffee break ...
r) came back, and wtf???
p) that gave it "room for error"
q) but once we were well over 2400s, I took a coffee break ...
r) came back, and wtf???
Comment:
s) well offer stands if you need forecaster, let me know, have a good one
Comment:
t) why 2430?
u) what so special about that???
u) what so special about that???
Comment:
w) and BTW, those drafts showed rugpull to 2275
x) I haven't looked at this thoroughly bc I don't have risk on
y) so see ya later
x) I haven't looked at this thoroughly bc I don't have risk on
y) so see ya later
Comment:
12:43 PM ET, 2371.XX
a) next couple hours decide whether or not this is actually those drafts
b) and by now, I think it is, I just need more evidence
c) but WHAT ELSE CAN IT BE?
a) next couple hours decide whether or not this is actually those drafts
b) and by now, I think it is, I just need more evidence
c) but WHAT ELSE CAN IT BE?
Comment:
d) if price intends to be SOMETHING ELSE...
e) then bounce to 2400 AND HOLD
f) anything weaker is a problem
e) then bounce to 2400 AND HOLD
f) anything weaker is a problem
Comment:
g) 1:13 PM, 2360.XX watch out I said 2275 for a reason
Comment:
h) shouldn't we get to 2385 once again?
i) what's the rush to get down so fast?
i) what's the rush to get down so fast?
Comment:
1:33 PM WRAP UP, 2356.xx this thing is done, it's 6-2 and 6-3
a) that is obvious now
b) that's it then...
c) see you in a few months? no?
a) that is obvious now
b) that's it then...
c) see you in a few months? no?
Comment:
d) bc NOTHING gonna happen until 6/12 fomc
e) so you might as well skip it
e) so you might as well skip it
Comment:
Comment:
a) in chart above, this thing is heading for 2200 like draft 6-2/6-3
b) and that's a wrap for this gold rally
c) I may be back NEXT gold rally
d) I'm going to skip this zone to June
b) and that's a wrap for this gold rally
c) I may be back NEXT gold rally
d) I'm going to skip this zone to June
Comment:
2:20 PM ET, BTW, its AN OBVIOUS SHORT TO 2200 ok?
a) just just 6-2, 6-3 as a guide
b) you'll be fine
a) just just 6-2, 6-3 as a guide
b) you'll be fine
Comment:
IF YOU WANT ME TO QUIT MY WORK/JOB OFFERS AND GO DO FORECASTS FOR YOU:
1) if you have followed me long enough
2) you know that what I do is actually "a failed software project"
3) it just so happened that eventually, my "daily notes became really strong trading information"
4) long story short, I have to HAVE REAL DEMAND TO QUIT WHAT I DO NOW
5) that means I need 400 people paying that wants to pay $100/month
6) why 400?, because I would not it if it's 200 people
7) and I have to assume worst case scenario 6 months out...
8) a situation that I lose half of that 400 clients' demand
9) so that's something you REALLY want, send me message saying "you want it"
10) 200 people is not enough, 300 is worth figuring out, 400 is instant decision
11) but be serious ok?, bc I have 5 kids, they got eat and go to college
12) that's it, have a good one
1) if you have followed me long enough
2) you know that what I do is actually "a failed software project"
3) it just so happened that eventually, my "daily notes became really strong trading information"
4) long story short, I have to HAVE REAL DEMAND TO QUIT WHAT I DO NOW
5) that means I need 400 people paying that wants to pay $100/month
6) why 400?, because I would not it if it's 200 people
7) and I have to assume worst case scenario 6 months out...
8) a situation that I lose half of that 400 clients' demand
9) so that's something you REALLY want, send me message saying "you want it"
10) 200 people is not enough, 300 is worth figuring out, 400 is instant decision
11) but be serious ok?, bc I have 5 kids, they got eat and go to college
12) that's it, have a good one
Comment:
13) think about this, my arts/crafts job pays 12k/MONTH and it's EASY....
14) so that's why that "forecasting as a service" never sounded real to me
15) you want make it happen, send me a message
14) so that's why that "forecasting as a service" never sounded real to me
15) you want make it happen, send me a message
Comment:
16) sorry about that message setting, I didn't even know about it
17) yeah, just send me a message if you want me to do it
17) yeah, just send me a message if you want me to do it
Comment:
9:43 PM ET, For everyone that sent a message. You know who you are and I thank you for your appreciation.
a) it's just not meant to be
b) I just ran out of time and gotta move on to the next job
c) would've stayed if gold kept going
d) but its done for while
e) and this "bull market" will never make 5500
f) having top here, it's 3600 tops in late 2025
g) have a good life!
h) this is the last "last time"
a) it's just not meant to be
b) I just ran out of time and gotta move on to the next job
c) would've stayed if gold kept going
d) but its done for while
e) and this "bull market" will never make 5500
f) having top here, it's 3600 tops in late 2025
g) have a good life!
h) this is the last "last time"
Comment:
9:39 AM ET, TO ANSWER THE QUESTION WHY NOT GIVE IT A CHANCE:
1) I did, I set the bar high 300-400 so I can hit half of that
2) and I have 21 people now
3) sure, I will wait for responses to come in
4) but it's not realistic, that's why
1) I did, I set the bar high 300-400 so I can hit half of that
2) and I have 21 people now
3) sure, I will wait for responses to come in
4) but it's not realistic, that's why
Comment:
12:30 TO CLOSE THIS OUT, THIS DIDN'T SHOW UP ON THE MESSAGE BOARD.
a) its doing weird things right now so once again,
b) UNTIL THEN IF EVER AGAIN:
a) its doing weird things right now so once again,
b) UNTIL THEN IF EVER AGAIN:
Comment:
Comment:
1:18 PM ET, my last note on how drafting works:
a) used to put these warnings/suggestions in the header of each post
b) and it would say to "replay previous drafts fore reference"
c) so yellow route above is edited version of blue route above
d) which is edited version of 6-3, which itself is a "proofed" or heavily editted version of 6-2
e) 6-2 was just inclusive/stylized version of DRAFT 5, "the 6 rejections of at 2350"
f) if you replay it here:
a) used to put these warnings/suggestions in the header of each post
b) and it would say to "replay previous drafts fore reference"
c) so yellow route above is edited version of blue route above
d) which is edited version of 6-3, which itself is a "proofed" or heavily editted version of 6-2
e) 6-2 was just inclusive/stylized version of DRAFT 5, "the 6 rejections of at 2350"
f) if you replay it here:
Comment:
g) the overall THEME of this move was "chosen previously chosen by price"
h) the only part was just "the details"
i) a reader - kemifost - said in comments that his target was 2223
j) if you remembered, there was a short period where I had price retracing to 2222
k) several times before it move up strong
l) long story short, it DID NOT DO THAT, so it's going back there
m) my target is 2195 on 04/30
n) BUT IF KEMIFOST IS RIGHT AND IT STOPS AT 2222 ...
o) then the route from 5/1 FOMC TO 6/12 FOMC should look ...
p) MORE LIKE DRAFT 5 right above here, THAN ANY OF THE OTHER ONES
q) through and through, you're just talking "details"
r) because the blast off date, has been 6/12 ever since we made "2150 by 03/08"
s) so be aware of the drafting process
t) this is also why in order to trade well, you have to have "updates all the time"
u) bc short term price action DO NOT HAVE TO MAKE SENSE AT ALL
h) the only part was just "the details"
i) a reader - kemifost - said in comments that his target was 2223
j) if you remembered, there was a short period where I had price retracing to 2222
k) several times before it move up strong
l) long story short, it DID NOT DO THAT, so it's going back there
m) my target is 2195 on 04/30
n) BUT IF KEMIFOST IS RIGHT AND IT STOPS AT 2222 ...
o) then the route from 5/1 FOMC TO 6/12 FOMC should look ...
p) MORE LIKE DRAFT 5 right above here, THAN ANY OF THE OTHER ONES
q) through and through, you're just talking "details"
r) because the blast off date, has been 6/12 ever since we made "2150 by 03/08"
s) so be aware of the drafting process
t) this is also why in order to trade well, you have to have "updates all the time"
u) bc short term price action DO NOT HAVE TO MAKE SENSE AT ALL
Comment:
v) hence there's ONLY 2 INTERMEDIATE TRADES WORTH TRADING UNTIL 6/12
w) first is SHORT to 2200
y) and if 2200 hits, second would then be long to 2350
z) after that is not obvious but you are - generally speaking - just waiting to 6/12 fomc
z1) so all that I can do for you ahead of 6/12 FOMC, I have done
z2) have a good one, and remember to trade defensively!
w) first is SHORT to 2200
y) and if 2200 hits, second would then be long to 2350
z) after that is not obvious but you are - generally speaking - just waiting to 6/12 fomc
z1) so all that I can do for you ahead of 6/12 FOMC, I have done
z2) have a good one, and remember to trade defensively!
Comment:
4:16 PM ET... PLEASE IGNORE ALL THE CHARTS I'VE JUST POSTED ABOVE
a) regarding triangle from now to 6/12
b) I realize now IT'S PROBABLY NOT A TRIANGLE
c) this means that the drop to 04/30 has a 2250 floor until proven wrong
d) this is just too many adjustments that are needed to be useful
e) so just IGNORE ALL OF IT OK?
f) I don't want any body losing money bc outdated trend maps
g) sorry!!
a) regarding triangle from now to 6/12
b) I realize now IT'S PROBABLY NOT A TRIANGLE
c) this means that the drop to 04/30 has a 2250 floor until proven wrong
d) this is just too many adjustments that are needed to be useful
e) so just IGNORE ALL OF IT OK?
f) I don't want any body losing money bc outdated trend maps
g) sorry!!
Comment:
h) bc the range of outcomes, I don't want to suggest a
Comment:
i) route to June
j) and then NOT UPDATE if I see changes
k) so just forget it
j) and then NOT UPDATE if I see changes
k) so just forget it
Comment:
5:08 PM ET, I haven't been paying attention to the news, Israel/Iran either.
a) so ignore all recent posts
b) this is a situation that requires continuous updating
c) that is not something I can do anymore
a) so ignore all recent posts
b) this is a situation that requires continuous updating
c) that is not something I can do anymore
Order cancelled:
d) so to prevent any misunderstanding:
Comment:
e) there, everything cancelled going forwtard
Comment:
f) the only thing I can give you guys is this
g) if price wants to stop 2275-2222-2195 scenario
h) it must put in A NEW HIGH 2465 soon
i) this type of forecasting has to be done cotinuously
j) I am cannot help you anymore
g) if price wants to stop 2275-2222-2195 scenario
h) it must put in A NEW HIGH 2465 soon
i) this type of forecasting has to be done cotinuously
j) I am cannot help you anymore
Comment:
k) ultimately, it is almost impossible to avoid 2222, now that this top has happened
l) even if gold hits 3 more highs after this into 25xx
m) it would still have to correct to 2222 minimum ahead of 6/12 fomc
n) it's just a matter of how you get there
l) even if gold hits 3 more highs after this into 25xx
m) it would still have to correct to 2222 minimum ahead of 6/12 fomc
n) it's just a matter of how you get there
Comment:
o) but if war can delay the move to 2222
p) then first bulls have to show up at 2320 to slow the bears down
q) THEN MUST DEFEND 2303 and force price back up
r) this is very difficult to accomplish in its current setup
s) but war might do that
p) then first bulls have to show up at 2320 to slow the bears down
q) THEN MUST DEFEND 2303 and force price back up
r) this is very difficult to accomplish in its current setup
s) but war might do that
Comment:
t) in this scenario, price would go SIDEWAYS TO UP AFTER 2303
u) and move UP after 05/01 FOMC to 25xx BY 5/10
w) but by 5/30, would still go down to 2222
x) that's it from me, have good one.
u) and move UP after 05/01 FOMC to 25xx BY 5/10
w) but by 5/30, would still go down to 2222
x) that's it from me, have good one.
Comment:
y) it's really hard to stop 2275 now
z) no matter what scenario plays out, because it's a momentum spiral
z1) these are insanely difficult to escape from
z2) so even if you think war will stop 2200
z3) I don't think it can stop 2275
z) no matter what scenario plays out, because it's a momentum spiral
z1) these are insanely difficult to escape from
z2) so even if you think war will stop 2200
z3) I don't think it can stop 2275
Comment:
z4) so the first part of the yellow draft above is still strong no matter the scenario
z5) that is 2365 then 2275
z6) everything else have to come afterwards
z5) that is 2365 then 2275
z6) everything else have to come afterwards
Comment:
z7) but the shape of that move would change to be more direct, instead of sideways first
z8) the only scenario to escape 2275 is straight up from here
z9) I've never seen that happen in this setup
z8) the only scenario to escape 2275 is straight up from here
z9) I've never seen that happen in this setup
Comment:
z10) that's not saying it's impossible, but I've never seen that happpen
Comment:
z11) no there's still one more scenario with 2303 floor...
z12) forget it, just too much time, bye
z12) forget it, just too much time, bye
Comment:
9:09 PM ET: Isreal Iran open 2430? Prove it.
Here's my base case despite war fever:
1) sideways under 2370 to Tuesday night NY time
2) crash 90 more to 2275 on Wed
3) let's see price prove either thesis
Here's my base case despite war fever:
1) sideways under 2370 to Tuesday night NY time
2) crash 90 more to 2275 on Wed
3) let's see price prove either thesis
Comment:
10:09 PM ET 2360.xx, bulls have a 3, maybe 4 hour window to push back up hard.
a) if they slow and stall
b) you can forget 24xx for weeks
a) if they slow and stall
b) you can forget 24xx for weeks
Comment:
c) in my humbled opinion
d) if bears push this to 2350s in an hour
e) then they shut the window early
f) my base case remains the same as last notes
g) sideways under 2370 and move down to 2275
d) if bears push this to 2350s in an hour
e) then they shut the window early
f) my base case remains the same as last notes
g) sideways under 2370 and move down to 2275
Comment:
h) this means that I see bulls' window
i) but I don't think they show up for it
i) but I don't think they show up for it
Comment:
j) so I think next step is 2340
k) I am going to bed and not updating, goodnight
k) I am going to bed and not updating, goodnight
Comment:
LET'S WRAP THIS ONE UP. THIS CAN KEEP YOU GOING TO WEDNESDAY, DRAFT 8-1:
Comment:
12:00 PM the fight is over this red line here:
Comment:
a) same red line since Sunday night
b) since Thursday, depending on how you count..
c) bears have broke that line 4-9 times, and now matter how deep bulls have came in to support it
d) we're at 2388.xx as I type, this part is important bc bears have setup for 2280 that is
e) approaching completion
f) unless bulls keep prices c above 2380
g) they don't have to hold red line, bc that's not sustainable over time
h) they just have to 2380 for 2 days and that should kill bears' 100 pt rug pull setup
i) at THIS POINT IN TIME, I think they are finally favored to prevent the rugpull
j) and this is the first time since Friday that they bulls look like I they can do this
k) Powell's speech is coming up soon, and 15 pt swing down to 73 would shift the odds again
l) that's a fair assessment of where we are
b) since Thursday, depending on how you count..
c) bears have broke that line 4-9 times, and now matter how deep bulls have came in to support it
d) we're at 2388.xx as I type, this part is important bc bears have setup for 2280 that is
e) approaching completion
f) unless bulls keep prices c above 2380
g) they don't have to hold red line, bc that's not sustainable over time
h) they just have to 2380 for 2 days and that should kill bears' 100 pt rug pull setup
i) at THIS POINT IN TIME, I think they are finally favored to prevent the rugpull
j) and this is the first time since Friday that they bulls look like I they can do this
k) Powell's speech is coming up soon, and 15 pt swing down to 73 would shift the odds again
l) that's a fair assessment of where we are
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