5500 DRAFT 7-4 CRAZY RALLY RIGHT NOW
Introduction -I've been looking for this move 4 weeks now. I think it's now, RIGHT NOW!
Details - My daily notes bat pretty well but I've been very frustrated not hitting one "giant but quick super rally" for last four weeks. These things have a "very specific look" that I call "reverse one step water fall". Will explain later. So when they show up in major rally phases, you should get a really big one. This has not hit once yet! So it must be now!
Details - My daily notes bat pretty well but I've been very frustrated not hitting one "giant but quick super rally" for last four weeks. These things have a "very specific look" that I call "reverse one step water fall". Will explain later. So when they show up in major rally phases, you should get a really big one. This has not hit once yet! So it must be now!
Comment:
CALLED IT AT FIRST POSSIBLE MOMENT:
Comment:
1. chart above from last post(2400 in 12 hours)
2. called it at 2292 AND SAID this is going to be huge!
2. called it at 2292 AND SAID this is going to be huge!
Comment:
3) the two qualities of this type of rally are
a) HUGE!
b) & VERTICAL!
a) HUGE!
b) & VERTICAL!
Comment:
c) three arrows in chart at top mean orange happen right now
d) the first gray is if all one giant leg (base case)
e) the second gray is it waits for NFP
f) my call is first gray so NFP call hard sell the top
d) the first gray is if all one giant leg (base case)
e) the second gray is it waits for NFP
f) my call is first gray so NFP call hard sell the top
Comment:
g) let's nail this giant rally first
h) and I'll answer why YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO SWITCH SIDES WHEN FACTS HAVE CHANGED
I) keep that in mind
h) and I'll answer why YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO SWITCH SIDES WHEN FACTS HAVE CHANGED
I) keep that in mind
Comment:
Comment:
11:08 AM 2294.xx it's waiting for 2 waves to turn, but soon!
Comment:
11:26 AM, 2293.XX, just a little bit longer, it's gonna be so awesome!
Comment:
11;33 AM, Structure will be ready in like 5-10 minutes BUT WE HAVE A SITUATION...
a) Powell is speaking at 12:00, in 27 min
b) it literally could sit there and do nothing until that time
a) Powell is speaking at 12:00, in 27 min
b) it literally could sit there and do nothing until that time
Comment:
1 min to POWELL:
Comment:
1:0 PM ET 2286.XX he're's what I know:
a) it's going to happen
b) this move will test the ceiling near 2400
c) it can start anytime now but doesn't have "catch fire" until Friday AM
d) so I leveraged up here just now 2287.55
e) the problem is:
a) it's going to happen
b) this move will test the ceiling near 2400
c) it can start anytime now but doesn't have "catch fire" until Friday AM
d) so I leveraged up here just now 2287.55
e) the problem is:
Comment:
f) I won't know what it looks like until it gets to 2300 again
g) I have to see the lead in to know wt will do and in how many waves
h) obvious it has skipped the first opportunity to launch with zero lead in
i) so now we wait for lead in to figure out shape and time
g) I have to see the lead in to know wt will do and in how many waves
h) obvious it has skipped the first opportunity to launch with zero lead in
i) so now we wait for lead in to figure out shape and time
Comment:
j) had it made that move first window, the shape would be predicatable
k) now:
k) now:
Comment:
1) in chart above depending on the shape of the move to 2305..
2) will know how long and how many waves
3) the super quick version is literally 5 hours
4) while the longer version is roughly 12 hours
5) it can have one big wave or two smaller waves
6) or one big wave that separates at the end in two
7) there's way to many combinations to be worth mapping
8) it's jus easier to wait for 2300, the faster we get there .. the faster the move will be
9) but the ceiling is 2425 no matter what
2) will know how long and how many waves
3) the super quick version is literally 5 hours
4) while the longer version is roughly 12 hours
5) it can have one big wave or two smaller waves
6) or one big wave that separates at the end in two
7) there's way to many combinations to be worth mapping
8) it's jus easier to wait for 2300, the faster we get there .. the faster the move will be
9) but the ceiling is 2425 no matter what
Comment:
10) here's basis shape:
Comment:
a) in chart above, first, the move to 2300-2310
b) it should feature a double top
c) or if it's just one wave, that wave should have two tops
d) that's it..
e) and remember tomorrow is NFP
d) the lead in should completed way ahead
e) so NFP will be before or after or between the two tops
b) it should feature a double top
c) or if it's just one wave, that wave should have two tops
d) that's it..
e) and remember tomorrow is NFP
d) the lead in should completed way ahead
e) so NFP will be before or after or between the two tops
Comment:
AND THE OBVIOUS SIGNAL PRICE IS LAUNCHING:
Comment:
a) in chart above
b) it does not matter when that check down happens
c) that is the ALL READY SIGNAL
b) it does not matter when that check down happens
c) that is the ALL READY SIGNAL
Comment:
d) no excitement unless over 2303
Comment:
Comment:
a) ooh it just touched it now too..
b) so I didn't expect this so early.. after it decided to not move at first opportunity
c) so now it's taking second wiindow?
d) I don't know, it's 2299.xx an it doesn't 'count unless you're above looking down
e) just in case and be aware if it tries again soon...
f) that means AT LEAST ONE TOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT
g) small chance of two tops before midnight
b) so I didn't expect this so early.. after it decided to not move at first opportunity
c) so now it's taking second wiindow?
d) I don't know, it's 2299.xx an it doesn't 'count unless you're above looking down
e) just in case and be aware if it tries again soon...
f) that means AT LEAST ONE TOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT
g) small chance of two tops before midnight
Comment:
Comment:
2:39 PM ET,, 2299.xx and for chart above...
a) if it goes through before NY CLOSE at 4:00, so next 80 mins
b) it is NOT OBVIOUS THAT this rally needs Friday complete both tops
c) but if you see that soon, we can hit 2nd top before midnight
d) favored? not sure
a) if it goes through before NY CLOSE at 4:00, so next 80 mins
b) it is NOT OBVIOUS THAT this rally needs Friday complete both tops
c) but if you see that soon, we can hit 2nd top before midnight
d) favored? not sure
Comment:
2:54 PM 2303.XX and that means broke through resistance we talked about
a) that means BOTH TOPS BEFORE MID NIGHT
b) when is first top? hmmm...
c) we need to get higher and "check down to 2303
a) that means BOTH TOPS BEFORE MID NIGHT
b) when is first top? hmmm...
c) we need to get higher and "check down to 2303
Comment:
d, first top should be on or before 9 PM ET..
f) can it hit in after market by 5PM???
g) not sure but it is TRYING HARD AF right now look at that angle on price
f) can it hit in after market by 5PM???
g) not sure but it is TRYING HARD AF right now look at that angle on price
Comment:
Comment:
a) in chart above, why?
b) bc it counts same as check down from higher
c) it can just go straight up now if wants
b) bc it counts same as check down from higher
c) it can just go straight up now if wants
Comment:
d) 3:12 PM ET, its going to try to bust through again
e) it's hart do imagine getting through even with after market
e) it's hart do imagine getting through even with after market
Comment:
3:48 PM ET 2283.and we need a 2294 close or else
a) or else what?
b) price under 2294 CAN VOID OUR THESIS ...
c) an would end this post series altogether
a) or else what?
b) price under 2294 CAN VOID OUR THESIS ...
c) an would end this post series altogether
Comment:
4:00 NY closed 2285, we will see what after market close is..
a) bc this is a big deal so....
a) bc this is a big deal so....
Comment:
b) 4:26 PM, 2291.XX ,better, but not great.
c) the routes have changed greatly bc of that swing already
d) so if bulls are serious, they should push or 2294 or better
e) if bulls are too legit to quit, they push things small rally to 2303 now
f) that would make a statement and preserve the schedule
g) other wise right now, the schedule for 2 highs are midnight and 6 AM
c) the routes have changed greatly bc of that swing already
d) so if bulls are serious, they should push or 2294 or better
e) if bulls are too legit to quit, they push things small rally to 2303 now
f) that would make a statement and preserve the schedule
g) other wise right now, the schedule for 2 highs are midnight and 6 AM
Comment:
6:06 PM -- that close DID NOT fix our problem:
Comment:
a) for chart above, that move needs to get "unwinded" bc it effed up all intraday trends
b) meaning you will zig zag to NFP
c) and then run to 2365, check down
d) and finish to 2425 Sunday night
e) that's the end of this rally too
f) have a good weekend
b) meaning you will zig zag to NFP
c) and then run to 2365, check down
d) and finish to 2425 Sunday night
e) that's the end of this rally too
f) have a good weekend
Comment:
No it's momentum first.
2275.
2240?
If they push while you sleep.
It's over.
2275.
2240?
If they push while you sleep.
It's over.
Comment:
That drop today when I said get over 2303 and fly.
And you turned around and it's down 20.
That's rejection.
Why else would that setup fail?
Why go looking for another set up?
And you turned around and it's down 20.
That's rejection.
Why else would that setup fail?
Why go looking for another set up?
Comment:
Because if they can kill it today. They can kill it tomorrow. So the tide has turned. Bc today's setup was so pretty. I'm done with this too. Have a good life!
Comment:
Comment:
a) for chart above AND THE PREVIOUS CHART from last night...
b) the chart from last night assume 2275-2280 would hold and means 2350-65 today
c) followed by 2400s Sunday and Monday
d) but they pushed int under 2270 and trust me when I say that matters
e) bc you from "no way they can break this" to ...
f) "if someone wanted this taken down, it's been done before"
g) so that's where you are at
h) not knowing if we make 2350-65 today
i) and the schedule is EVERYTHING, bc the April high determines ...
j) THE REST OF THE WAY
k) that's why I am so tired of it
l) I need it to break to 2350 today for things to work out for me
m) I really need gold to give me a reason here
b) the chart from last night assume 2275-2280 would hold and means 2350-65 today
c) followed by 2400s Sunday and Monday
d) but they pushed int under 2270 and trust me when I say that matters
e) bc you from "no way they can break this" to ...
f) "if someone wanted this taken down, it's been done before"
g) so that's where you are at
h) not knowing if we make 2350-65 today
i) and the schedule is EVERYTHING, bc the April high determines ...
j) THE REST OF THE WAY
k) that's why I am so tired of it
l) I need it to break to 2350 today for things to work out for me
m) I really need gold to give me a reason here
Comment:
n) honestly since February low ...
o) I've made a lot, and doing really well today
p) but I have another job easier and pays better
q) so my calls doing really well today
r) but I need them to do really, really well
s) so it's worth it for me
o) I've made a lot, and doing really well today
p) but I have another job easier and pays better
q) so my calls doing really well today
r) but I need them to do really, really well
s) so it's worth it for me
Comment:
t) my wife ask me all the time, is it worth it?
u) I still cannot say yes to that
u) I still cannot say yes to that
Comment:
Comment:
1:02 PM ET.. 2327, we are still favored to move up
a) and if we do here's what that means
b) it means 24xx Sunday to Monday
c) AND IT MEANS 25xx before this is done in under 2 weeks
d) AND IT MEANS 5500 before the entire gold rally is done I under 2 years
a) and if we do here's what that means
b) it means 24xx Sunday to Monday
c) AND IT MEANS 25xx before this is done in under 2 weeks
d) AND IT MEANS 5500 before the entire gold rally is done I under 2 years
Comment:
Comment:
1:09 PM ET and 2328.94 .. and what if we don't take out 2350
a) remember, it took us 4 tries in three and a half YEARS...
b) to break the trend line from 2011-2020
c) so this is NOT A SMALL FEAT even though it's 22 pts away
a) remember, it took us 4 tries in three and a half YEARS...
b) to break the trend line from 2011-2020
c) so this is NOT A SMALL FEAT even though it's 22 pts away
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
TYPO IN NOTES in chart above:
1) that number is 2325-ish right now (2225 is obviously too far)
2) what that means is if gets under that again...
3) then odds of making 2350 today start falling like a rock
4) and it depending on what the aftermarket close is today...
5) Sunday open is going hard AF to handle
6) trust me when I say that EVERYONE IS WATCHING 2350
7) not just IF IT GETS HIT..
8) but second and third response to it
9) 44-years is long time for a trend
10) break that trend and it's going to mean something
1) that number is 2325-ish right now (2225 is obviously too far)
2) what that means is if gets under that again...
3) then odds of making 2350 today start falling like a rock
4) and it depending on what the aftermarket close is today...
5) Sunday open is going hard AF to handle
6) trust me when I say that EVERYONE IS WATCHING 2350
7) not just IF IT GETS HIT..
8) but second and third response to it
9) 44-years is long time for a trend
10) break that trend and it's going to mean something
Comment:
2:00 PM ET 2326.XX it's about to give up
a) odds just went to flat
b) and soon will favor check down
a) odds just went to flat
b) and soon will favor check down
Comment:
Comment:
c) continuing with chart above ...
d) so either move up now
e) or drift for next 3 hours with a flat close, which from here is 26-28
f) this would be another setup for gap up and run up for Sunday open
d) so either move up now
e) or drift for next 3 hours with a flat close, which from here is 26-28
f) this would be another setup for gap up and run up for Sunday open
Comment:
g) so if we don't break out to 2350 like right now
h) then odds for 2400-2500 for next 2 weeks start disappearing
i) and pin last hopes for a miracle next week
j) we can still make 2350-2365
k) but the miracle here is to hold 2350 for a week without retracing
l) that's a wrap for Sunday
h) then odds for 2400-2500 for next 2 weeks start disappearing
i) and pin last hopes for a miracle next week
j) we can still make 2350-2365
k) but the miracle here is to hold 2350 for a week without retracing
l) that's a wrap for Sunday
Comment:
2:51, watch out for rug pull.
Comment:
3:16, at 2321.xx, if bulls don't stop this....
a) bears aiming for 2311
b) and that would destroy any odds for a higher high
c) rally in effect maybe over completely
a) bears aiming for 2311
b) and that would destroy any odds for a higher high
c) rally in effect maybe over completely
Comment:
3:29 bulls stopped them,
a) bcecause of the weakening trend
b) bulls need to close at day's high or over it
c) why?
d) to make sure 2365 gets hit Sunday night
e) and to make 2425 a possible runaway target
f) that's the only way left to survive a sell off and keep 2500 an option
a) bcecause of the weakening trend
b) bulls need to close at day's high or over it
c) why?
d) to make sure 2365 gets hit Sunday night
e) and to make 2425 a possible runaway target
f) that's the only way left to survive a sell off and keep 2500 an option
Comment:
g) if they lose 2320 again
h) bears may drive to 2300
h) bears may drive to 2300
Comment:
3:43 I've closed all my longs including really long term ones
a) 17 min to NY CLOSE
b) if bulls can't stop rug pull, they deserve to die
c) 17 min for all the marbles
a) 17 min to NY CLOSE
b) if bulls can't stop rug pull, they deserve to die
c) 17 min for all the marbles
Comment:
4:27 PM ET 2324.XX barring no rug pull surprise in next 32 min of aftermarket
a) next high will be 2375
b) but most of this here to 2365
c) should hit by midnight before clock turns Monday
d) hold on, let's see if this thing wants to go nuts right now
e) I got a feeling it might got nuts NOW
a) next high will be 2375
b) but most of this here to 2365
c) should hit by midnight before clock turns Monday
d) hold on, let's see if this thing wants to go nuts right now
e) I got a feeling it might got nuts NOW
Comment:
f) continuing after 2329 close
g) didn't go nuts but closed as requested very close to day's high
h) so again, for Sunday night gap up by a little bit is favored and most of run
i) will be Sunday night first 5 hours and I think they did push the ceiling to 24xx
j) let me see
g) didn't go nuts but closed as requested very close to day's high
h) so again, for Sunday night gap up by a little bit is favored and most of run
i) will be Sunday night first 5 hours and I think they did push the ceiling to 24xx
j) let me see
Comment:
6:38 PM I'll post draft 7-5 when I have it
a) we have a swing up and down situation 70 up and probably 100 down
b) if you were 12/01 when I called 2140 and called for it to crash immediately]
c) almost exact situation numbers wise
d) so is 2400 Sunday night
e) 2300 Monday morning
f) BUT MUST CLOSE MONDAY AFTERMARKET AT 2330 AGAIN
a) we have a swing up and down situation 70 up and probably 100 down
b) if you were 12/01 when I called 2140 and called for it to crash immediately]
c) almost exact situation numbers wise
d) so is 2400 Sunday night
e) 2300 Monday morning
f) BUT MUST CLOSE MONDAY AFTERMARKET AT 2330 AGAIN
Comment:
g) the difference this time is the speed of the move up is more gradual
h) we need all of Sunday night to hit 2400
i) and the drop to 2300 SHOULD BE OVERALL SLOWER TOO
j) so apparently gold wont let me walk away yet
h) we need all of Sunday night to hit 2400
i) and the drop to 2300 SHOULD BE OVERALL SLOWER TOO
j) so apparently gold wont let me walk away yet
Comment:
Comment:
a) for chart above
b) and AGAIN if we close well Monday
c) that is defined as same close today
d) we are going to absolutely crush this move to 2540
e) it's finally here, FINALLY!
b) and AGAIN if we close well Monday
c) that is defined as same close today
d) we are going to absolutely crush this move to 2540
e) it's finally here, FINALLY!
Comment:
9:11 PM ET - There's too many combinations that I have here and it's just not clear:
1) the range of the top is 2375-2425
2) 2400 just happens to me the middle
3) I don't have good evidence that it's 2400
4) I have MORE EVIDENCE THAT IT SHOULD BE 2425
5) so?
6) I also don't know what happens after the top
7) obviously it would get sold
8) but when/where it stops isn't clear AT ALL
1) the range of the top is 2375-2425
2) 2400 just happens to me the middle
3) I don't have good evidence that it's 2400
4) I have MORE EVIDENCE THAT IT SHOULD BE 2425
5) so?
6) I also don't know what happens after the top
7) obviously it would get sold
8) but when/where it stops isn't clear AT ALL
Comment:
9) the resemblance to the 2140 move is even more annoying
10) it means TOP IN
11) and it means 2300 DOES NOT HOLD
10) it means TOP IN
11) and it means 2300 DOES NOT HOLD
Comment:
12) we will handle that problem Monday and we will see
13) to sum that up
a) we're going up
b) top range 2375-2425
c)) and not sure where the selling stops afterwards
13) to sum that up
a) we're going up
b) top range 2375-2425
c)) and not sure where the selling stops afterwards
Comment:
14) 9:42 PM ET this is going to be so nasty... hold on...
Comment:
SATURDAY, 04/06, 9:54 AM ET:
1) THIS POST HAS ENDED
2) I PRESENT YOU, MY LIFE'S WORK, DRAFT 7-5:
1) THIS POST HAS ENDED
2) I PRESENT YOU, MY LIFE'S WORK, DRAFT 7-5:
Related Ideas
