Introduction - This is closure for binary forecasting for the people who follow it. Consider this draft as clarification for these two months as it relates to the standing long term forecast in Rumors of a Pivot, Part 3: Details - These are two most likely routes to June FOMC. In theory, whatever ultimately happens should be simple variations of these two...
Introduction - Bulls are setting up for a double bottom with a "V" reversal. This means the median will hold. This means 2500-ish on or before 05/23. This does not mean a straight line there though, because medium term 2-way vol is set to stay high all the way to June. Details - See previous drafts for how we got here. Warning - If you are new to this...
Introduction - So since the move to 2311-2314, I have to "play it by ear" because price is moving faster than my ability to map "an intermediate thesis" that is in sync with price action from here to August. In order to stay relevant and ahead of price action, let's talk less and do better. Details - Continuing from DRAFT 9-3, price chose yellow route to 2291...
Introduction - As anticipated overnight, bulls didn't put enough fight in at 2365 and ferocious bears took out the 43-year trend line. While it's not even obvious they are finished yet - because Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine still see 2323-27 as possible Monday targets before rebounding - I have strong conviction that gold is getting ready to nowhere...
Introduction - Bulls are holding 43-year trend line at 2360s while NASDAQ bears formed a soft ceiling at 2400 that should hold past through May 1st FOMC. The result has gold range bound, predominantly between 2367-2392 for the incoming nine trading days, after which gold should head for 2444 and higher. Details - Follow up to 9-1 DRAFT's failure to break out...
Don't think #GOLD is done by any means. HOWEVER....... Sold some positions around the date of bearish engulfing. As of today the precious metal is still @ that price level. We missed a lil more upside but it wasn't much oi the whole scheme of things. #SILVER shows same exact signs except the Bearish Engulfing. AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV
Miners didn't accelerate to the upside like metals because they do better in lower interest rate environments, whereas metals do better for volatility events. You could buy ITM puts here on JNUG, NUGT, GDX or GDXJ and see a good return, or just wait for this to bottom in a couple of weeks and ride the lightning. THIS opportunity is one of the 2 that I see this...
This has broken out of two downward trends and Powell is about to be dovish with the dollar and let inflation rip again for Biden to get reelected. I see a VERY ATTRACTIVE options play right now - Endeavor's May Call contract at $2.50 is .20 right now and the O/I is off the charts. $5 is .05 or $5 a call. If silver blasts off like I think then these guys could...
Introduction - London, of all places, vigorously defended 2373 and destroyed scheming bears' setup for 2285 this morning. Is this a sign that miracles do happen? No, it simply means 2444 is next. This also means a slow side-ways-to-up to 25xx in mid-May before MAJOR CORRECTION ahead of 6/12 FOMC. As always, we trade one day at a time and will cross that bridge...
Introduction - Didn't your mother ever tell you not to play with your food? Bulls with upper hand near 2400s once again trapped by hubris. Believing themselves invincible post Powell speech allowing bears to hang around with the door to 2275 still wide open. Will they regret this indecisive decision? Only time and Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine will...
Intro - This should be the next step on our way to 4800. 5500 is now unlikely considering what Friday's top means going forward. Details - Will break it down as we go. But be aware, I am not going to as helpful as I usually am.
I rally between now and April-May looks like a good risk-reward, however those gains are likely to get faded very fast as capital flows back into discounted equities, and other growth assets Of all the minerals mined from the Earth, none is more useful than gold (this is speculation). Its usefulness is derived from a diversity of special properties. Gold...
the fundamentals on gold aren't good: 1. its a rock, King Midas can make the supply infinite 2. mining it is an environmental mess and energy waste 3. value is primarily speculative 4. ton of overhead bagholders from 1,500-2,000 days 5. crypto currency stealing new retail 6. being hoarded by fragile states/ regimes 7. regulatory risk during crisis...
Introduction - This is continuation of a series that intends to deliver you 5500 in November 2025. I did say I would not make another public post because of what I felt was bad policy. That should not, however, punish the entire field of TradingView users from the benefits of the incoming rally to 2450, 2500, and ultimately 2675+ before 05/01 FOMC. From Here On...
🚨 🚨 🚨 #Gold is forming a Bearish Engulfing on the daily charts. Volume is almost there for a confirmation of the pattern. Money Flow is low. Overbought. Weekly we see Gold forming a doji = battle bulls & bears. #Silver is at a major resistance. This should be an interesting week... AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ AMEX:SLV
Introduction - After proof checking DRAFT 7-5 for all weak spots, this updated and detailed draft is the base case guide going into today's open in six and a half hours. Details - All background information, data, concepts, suggestions, and etc... can be found in previous DRAFT 7-5. This post is for continuous updates/notes/commentary on live price action from...
Introduction - With both pride and humility but pure anticipation, I present you my life's work summarized in one day's price action. DRAFT 7-5 is the latest of a series that attempts to accurately map gold's heroic route to 5500 (due November 2025) with respect to both price and time. Since nailing the 1810 low in October 2023, this proprietary "fractal...
Introduction -I've been looking for this move 4 weeks now. I think it's now, RIGHT NOW! Details - My daily notes bat pretty well but I've been very frustrated not hitting one "giant but quick super rally" for last four weeks. These things have a "very specific look" that I call "reverse one step water fall". Will explain later. So when they show up in major...