2500-3100-4200-6000, DRAFT 7-1, 2340 IN 2 DAYS, 2445 IN 6 DAYS
Introduction - Once more, with conviction in due diligence and much, much anticipation, Binary Forecasting Service presents: 2350, 2440, and by extension 2520 all before 04/23/24. At publishing on Saturday March 30th, that is 12.85% range in 17 trading days but counts as 25% if the trend engine can nail the 150-pt "V" move (for an extra 300 pts) between 04-09 and 04-11.
Details - After delivering 2150 and 2195 on time, Binary Forecasting Service did not make good on 2320-2360 in the previous three weeks. Well fate has funny ways of working out because with the favor of GOLD gods, the state of the art trend engine intend to deliver 2350 in 2 trading days and 2440 in 6 trading days. 2500s still await the bulls in the last week of April ahead of May 1st FOMC. On Friday, previous DRAFT 6-9 called for 2300 but - like literal clockwork at 3 AM ET - the bears of the UK showed up with intentions to break the bull's trend line since 2027. With the GOLD gods in favor of the bulls, price refused to take no for answer and closed NY aftermarket at 2233 in spot and 2254 futures. In notes of DRAFT 6-6, which was the background for 7-1, I explained in detail what this close meant for this coming week AND ultimately raising the "four highs" to 2500, 3100, 4200, and 6000. The technical analyst experts have woke up to the obvious 2250 and 2300 targets. When gold gears up for 2440 ahead of Friday's incoming NFP, BFS trend engine suggest they might have to wake up again.
Details - After delivering 2150 and 2195 on time, Binary Forecasting Service did not make good on 2320-2360 in the previous three weeks. Well fate has funny ways of working out because with the favor of GOLD gods, the state of the art trend engine intend to deliver 2350 in 2 trading days and 2440 in 6 trading days. 2500s still await the bulls in the last week of April ahead of May 1st FOMC. On Friday, previous DRAFT 6-9 called for 2300 but - like literal clockwork at 3 AM ET - the bears of the UK showed up with intentions to break the bull's trend line since 2027. With the GOLD gods in favor of the bulls, price refused to take no for answer and closed NY aftermarket at 2233 in spot and 2254 futures. In notes of DRAFT 6-6, which was the background for 7-1, I explained in detail what this close meant for this coming week AND ultimately raising the "four highs" to 2500, 3100, 4200, and 6000. The technical analyst experts have woke up to the obvious 2250 and 2300 targets. When gold gears up for 2440 ahead of Friday's incoming NFP, BFS trend engine suggest they might have to wake up again.
Comment:
Notes - Here is zoomed in for Sunday-Tuesday:
Comment:
Comment:
a) for chart above starting with Sudnay night:
b) I think price opens gap up to 2040s and run to 2048
c) next move is closing the GAP and checking 2222
d) it's not obvious that it will check before moving to 2260s,
e) but because of trend maps do NOT show another good opportunity to "retest 2222"
f) I think it should happen Sunday night to Monday AM
g) after that 2265, 2300, zig-zag, and get to 2350 by noon of Tuesday
b) I think price opens gap up to 2040s and run to 2048
c) next move is closing the GAP and checking 2222
d) it's not obvious that it will check before moving to 2260s,
e) but because of trend maps do NOT show another good opportunity to "retest 2222"
f) I think it should happen Sunday night to Monday AM
g) after that 2265, 2300, zig-zag, and get to 2350 by noon of Tuesday
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
8:45 PM SATURDAY, A TEST OF CLOSED HOURS:
a) the test is do missing bars count??
b) I've stated before my preference to forecast with XAUUSD ticker from ICE or FX_IDC
c) because of their impressive BAR HISTORY AND BAR COUNT REGULATION
d) based on all other tickers (futures/spot without exception), price should hit 2250-ish
e) then stall to NY premarket session and spent the rest of Monday moving to 2315
f) AND SHOULD REALLY DO THAT BY 6 PM ET Monday
g) but if missing bars count like FX_IDC says...
a) the test is do missing bars count??
b) I've stated before my preference to forecast with XAUUSD ticker from ICE or FX_IDC
c) because of their impressive BAR HISTORY AND BAR COUNT REGULATION
d) based on all other tickers (futures/spot without exception), price should hit 2250-ish
e) then stall to NY premarket session and spent the rest of Monday moving to 2315
f) AND SHOULD REALLY DO THAT BY 6 PM ET Monday
g) but if missing bars count like FX_IDC says...
Comment:
h) then THAT STALLING FINISHES AT MIDNIGHT
i) 2315 gets hit before 10 AM Monday
j) or within the first hour of market open
i) 2315 gets hit before 10 AM Monday
j) or within the first hour of market open
Comment:
k) so under all scenarios, we are at 2315 or higher Monday night
l) so after discussing all above scenarios, my base case is
m) open gap up to 2250, check down to 2210, move for 2265, and settle at 2230s before NY OPEN
n) spend the rest of NY session moving for 2315
just now
o) closing NY with 23xx, that is base case
l) so after discussing all above scenarios, my base case is
m) open gap up to 2250, check down to 2210, move for 2265, and settle at 2230s before NY OPEN
n) spend the rest of NY session moving for 2315
just now
o) closing NY with 23xx, that is base case
Comment:
Sunday, 03/31, I moved the four targets too much
a) previously it was 2360-2600-3300-5400
b) it should now be 2500-2900-3500-5400
c) not sure why I pushed it to 5400 in previous drafts, but that's about right
a) previously it was 2360-2600-3300-5400
b) it should now be 2500-2900-3500-5400
c) not sure why I pushed it to 5400 in previous drafts, but that's about right
Comment:
11:17 AM I found it
d) so from drafts 6-1 to 6-2 it was a typo that I didn't cattch
e) because from 6-1 to 6-2 I didn't change the other 3 highs, just the last one (5000 to 5400)
f) and didn't put in any notes for it
d) so from drafts 6-1 to 6-2 it was a typo that I didn't cattch
e) because from 6-1 to 6-2 I didn't change the other 3 highs, just the last one (5000 to 5400)
f) and didn't put in any notes for it
Comment:
h) so for this set it should 2500, 2900, 3500 and 5300
i) 5400 is a bit much
i) 5400 is a bit much
Comment:
j) NO, its' not, because the third number is too low
k) so should be 2500-2900-3700-5500, and I am keeping the round numbers on the low end
l) could easily be 2550, 3000, 3900, and 5800
k) so should be 2500-2900-3700-5500, and I am keeping the round numbers on the low end
l) could easily be 2550, 3000, 3900, and 5800
Comment:
m) once we get to the first high around 4/23 or earlier
n) we I'll know what that first number is
o) my base case is 2520
n) we I'll know what that first number is
o) my base case is 2520
Comment:
Comment:
7) continuing with chart above, those details make the most sense
8) again, the call is 2350 on Tuesday, the exact route is a best guess that's all
9) but be aware of which series of retrace you are in
10) for example:
8) again, the call is 2350 on Tuesday, the exact route is a best guess that's all
9) but be aware of which series of retrace you are in
10) for example:
Comment:
Comment:
a) so the previous chart detailing the run up to what I really think is 2365 ...
b) deals only with this between now and Tuesday
c) but we start counting on 02/13 at 1987
d) so at the first 2140 high, the biggest check down was 26
e) after PPI it was 50
f) after FOMC it was 65
g) so the next one should be 100 meaning 2365 to 2265
h) and because of the detailed crossovers in the trend, this 100-pt drop ...
i) is going to be super quick like a flash crash
j) next one should be at 2450 checking 2300 for 150-pt
b) deals only with this between now and Tuesday
c) but we start counting on 02/13 at 1987
d) so at the first 2140 high, the biggest check down was 26
e) after PPI it was 50
f) after FOMC it was 65
g) so the next one should be 100 meaning 2365 to 2265
h) and because of the detailed crossovers in the trend, this 100-pt drop ...
i) is going to be super quick like a flash crash
j) next one should be at 2450 checking 2300 for 150-pt
Comment:
Sunday, 5:14 PM, wave reconciliation say 2365 is too high for Tuesday
a) that means 2 things
b) either the Tuesday high it is only 2350
c) or it will be 2365 but on Wed AM
d) we will cross bridge when we get there
e) the implications of that stat is that the next high is not 2265, but maybe just 2255
f) it should be 2265-2222- and up
g) maybe closer to 2255 2215 and up
a) that means 2 things
b) either the Tuesday high it is only 2350
c) or it will be 2365 but on Wed AM
d) we will cross bridge when we get there
e) the implications of that stat is that the next high is not 2265, but maybe just 2255
f) it should be 2265-2222- and up
g) maybe closer to 2255 2215 and up
Comment:
h) no, more like 2255-2212-then 2285 instead of 2300
i) whatever, we take it one step at a time
i) whatever, we take it one step at a time
Comment:
5:31 PM the engine seems to be saying...
a) that I am wrong about the 2-way vol
b) meaning there should be less zig zag a bit more vertical
c) it seems to be saying it should be 2350 but on Tuesday morning around NY OPEN or earlier
d) AND .. the sell off should not be immediate
e) overall same picture just different details, but expect less 2-way vol until 2350
a) that I am wrong about the 2-way vol
b) meaning there should be less zig zag a bit more vertical
c) it seems to be saying it should be 2350 but on Tuesday morning around NY OPEN or earlier
d) AND .. the sell off should not be immediate
e) overall same picture just different details, but expect less 2-way vol until 2350
Comment:
5:58, 2 min to open, the most important thing?
a) if you happen to see 2210-2115
b) you HAVE TO BUY IT, if you are not in
c) and leverage up if you are in
a) if you happen to see 2210-2115
b) you HAVE TO BUY IT, if you are not in
c) and leverage up if you are in
Comment:
d) 6:00 as expected gapped up and running, I saw 44.xxx
e) will tab in soon
e) will tab in soon
Comment:
f) 6:13, 2240.XX, the 15sec bar chart says 1 more high in 5-6 inutes
g) AND THAT WILL BE THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
g) AND THAT WILL BE THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
Comment:
h) BUT NOT OBVIOUS HOW BIG
Comment:
i) in my opinion, if under 2236 once more, it's hard to put in one more high
j) we will see
j) we will see
Comment:
k) 6:21, still looking up, but watch your micro trend lines
l) if under 39 again, probably done for tonight
l) if under 39 again, probably done for tonight
Comment:
m) 6:25, not obvious this thing can break 2251
Comment:
n) but IF IT DOES... watch for 2263, that should be THE TOP until NEW YORK
Comment:
m) 6:29, this part important, watch you mircro trend lines
n) we have a shot for 2251-2263, but if the trend break it's over ok?
n) we have a shot for 2251-2263, but if the trend break it's over ok?
Comment:
o) 6:39, 2237.xx trend broke, but it it really over for now?
p) not sure, that level at 2251-52 not getting hit is really weird
q) so bulls have to HOLD 2236 AND FIGHT BACK UP for that position
r) right now it's 55/45 bulls in my opinion (for 2252, vs move now to 2210)
p) not sure, that level at 2251-52 not getting hit is really weird
q) so bulls have to HOLD 2236 AND FIGHT BACK UP for that position
r) right now it's 55/45 bulls in my opinion (for 2252, vs move now to 2210)
Comment:
Comment:
6:44 PM in my humbled opinion, as long as bulls hold 2236 they still have shot at 2252
a) not getting 2252 here is WEIRD AF, and should be - not a red flag but - an orange flag for sure
b) WHY?, bc bull markets should act like bull markets and hit the right bollingers on time
a) not getting 2252 here is WEIRD AF, and should be - not a red flag but - an orange flag for sure
b) WHY?, bc bull markets should act like bull markets and hit the right bollingers on time
Comment:
c) 6:57, I think odds are 70% or better now of hitting 2252
d) 2263 not obvious
d) 2263 not obvious
Comment:
7:01, bulls need to defend 2236, break that and its really hard to say we keep going up
a) as long as that holds, we are still good for 2252
b) and if we do that quickly can reach for 2263
c) that's it for tonight from me
d) after high in, it's check down to 2210-2222 (depending on the high you get)
e) and after check down bull 2280-90 in NY session tomorrow
a) as long as that holds, we are still good for 2252
b) and if we do that quickly can reach for 2263
c) that's it for tonight from me
d) after high in, it's check down to 2210-2222 (depending on the high you get)
e) and after check down bull 2280-90 in NY session tomorrow
Comment:
Comment:
7:38 PM ET, 2242.81, so now that odds obvious favor a break of 2245 for new record
a) there's ONE OUT COME I didn't get into because it seems TOO fast for tonight
b) that is 2263 hits BEFORE 10 PM ET OR EARLIER
c) I think breaking 2264 is really hard tonight
d) but not impossible, we are in gold bull with momentum
e) so you have watch for 2285... just use your micro lines
f) if they break its going down
g) but if's down and sideways for a while then use new lines if it bounces
h) that's it, have a good night
a) there's ONE OUT COME I didn't get into because it seems TOO fast for tonight
b) that is 2263 hits BEFORE 10 PM ET OR EARLIER
c) I think breaking 2264 is really hard tonight
d) but not impossible, we are in gold bull with momentum
e) so you have watch for 2285... just use your micro lines
f) if they break its going down
g) but if's down and sideways for a while then use new lines if it bounces
h) that's it, have a good night
Comment:
8:17 AM, I HAVE A SIGNAL SAYING 2250.X WAS TOP
a) it look like top for tonight
b) so becareful
a) it look like top for tonight
b) so becareful
Comment:
c) as long as trend line doesn't break you are safe
d) but that line breaks it's over
d) but that line breaks it's over
Comment:
e) line held, and pushing pasta 54 means 2263-64
f) that''s last high I can see and because of the route price chose
g) it needs to do it on this run
h) bc breaking that trend line now is really bad for the curves
f) that''s last high I can see and because of the route price chose
g) it needs to do it on this run
h) bc breaking that trend line now is really bad for the curves
Comment:
8:50 PM it' son the line right now at 2251, becareful
a) I think the check is 2210
b) bc high is 2255 (from notes earlier)
a) I think the check is 2210
b) bc high is 2255 (from notes earlier)
Comment:
9:58 here's the trend lines to watch
a) again, I said BEFORE MARKET OPENED THAT IF YOU SEE 2210, that is STRONG BUY
b) so just go line by line, it needs to break 2 lines to get to the 2210 floor
b) so just go line by line, it needs to break 2 lines to get to the 2210 floor
Comment:
c) broke red line means it wants 2263, I said earlier that it needed to do it on this run
d) looks like it's still trying
e) whether or not I makes 2263, we are within points of HARD TOP for tonight
d) looks like it's still trying
e) whether or not I makes 2263, we are within points of HARD TOP for tonight
Comment:
Sunday night wrap up 9:30 PM ET
a) at 59.xx for tripple top
b) so either make 63-64 and it's top
c) or top now
d) doesn't really matter
e) next move is obviously 2233, 2222, and maybe 2212
a) at 59.xx for tripple top
b) so either make 63-64 and it's top
c) or top now
d) doesn't really matter
e) next move is obviously 2233, 2222, and maybe 2212
Comment:
Monday, 12:04 AM so made a new line... and aiming for 2171
a) price has exceeded it "hard ceiling at 63"
b) so I don't know what it wants from here besides 2171
c) just use your micro lines
d) but London opens in 2 hours, there will be a sell off
e) but now that it has hit 65 floor should be 2222 or maybe even higher if ...
f) price takes out 2270
a) price has exceeded it "hard ceiling at 63"
b) so I don't know what it wants from here besides 2171
c) just use your micro lines
d) but London opens in 2 hours, there will be a sell off
e) but now that it has hit 65 floor should be 2222 or maybe even higher if ...
f) price takes out 2270
Comment:
g) watch out for rug pull here
Comment:
12:53 AM, 2259.XX, so best guess right now:
Comment:
a) watch your trend lines
b) that red line don't exist until price breaks to 54 or something
c) but once it does it will make a line
d) and price usually get under that line, go across, and checks from top down
e) but if price move up again...
f) then it may not do that, and just continue sideways until NY and keep moving up to 2280s
g) and then starting selling off in the near NY close
h) again, the target is 2350 on Tuesday , how it gets there is up to price to decide
b) that red line don't exist until price breaks to 54 or something
c) but once it does it will make a line
d) and price usually get under that line, go across, and checks from top down
e) but if price move up again...
f) then it may not do that, and just continue sideways until NY and keep moving up to 2280s
g) and then starting selling off in the near NY close
h) again, the target is 2350 on Tuesday , how it gets there is up to price to decide
Comment:
2:48 AM, getting close to that time of day
1) when bears the UK show up
2) not sure if they strong enough to sell this one down
3) but the classical TA say you can't go up with at least checking 2222
4) and really 2210 hasn't been checked either
5) are we bullish enough to skip it?
6) because bears have 10 hours and they have to start now...
7) if they wait until morning, it's not obvious they can break under 2245
1) when bears the UK show up
2) not sure if they strong enough to sell this one down
3) but the classical TA say you can't go up with at least checking 2222
4) and really 2210 hasn't been checked either
5) are we bullish enough to skip it?
6) because bears have 10 hours and they have to start now...
7) if they wait until morning, it's not obvious they can break under 2245
Comment:
6:57 AM 2247.XX bears made it to 44.xx but it's a critical area
a) if they want to make it to 2222 or 2212...
b) they have to 2244 AND HOLD for a while
c) while they did not wait until morning to push this down
d) they also don't have any extra time
e) it's almost 7:00 and they have 4-5 hours to make it there
f) so they have to "hold the curves"
g) if they start zig-zaging, bulls will crush them
h) bulls will crush them either way
i) it's just a question of what the low is before they do it
a) if they want to make it to 2222 or 2212...
b) they have to 2244 AND HOLD for a while
c) while they did not wait until morning to push this down
d) they also don't have any extra time
e) it's almost 7:00 and they have 4-5 hours to make it there
f) so they have to "hold the curves"
g) if they start zig-zaging, bulls will crush them
h) bulls will crush them either way
i) it's just a question of what the low is before they do it
Comment:
8:55 AM ET at 2252.xx and bears running out of time:
a) they have 4-5 hours to tag 2233, bc it's not ovious they can do 2222
b) so they need to get to it
c) in the same strain, that also means we are approaching "low in scenario"
d) at previous tag of 2244
e) while I don't think that's the low, the curves are turning to into spike up...
f) by 10 AM ET is when all of today's reports will clear
g) once bulls get past that, its hard to argue they won't spike up
a) they have 4-5 hours to tag 2233, bc it's not ovious they can do 2222
b) so they need to get to it
c) in the same strain, that also means we are approaching "low in scenario"
d) at previous tag of 2244
e) while I don't think that's the low, the curves are turning to into spike up...
f) by 10 AM ET is when all of today's reports will clear
g) once bulls get past that, its hard to argue they won't spike up
Comment:
10:08 AM ET 2235.XX after tagging 2233
a) with the spike down, bears can still hit 2222
b) and 2212 if they try hard enough
c) but again, the clock is ticking
a) with the spike down, bears can still hit 2222
b) and 2212 if they try hard enough
c) but again, the clock is ticking
Comment:
11:44, 2237.xx bear zone is almost up and what that means
a) so bears tagged 2227.XX on IDC/ICE bid ask
b) in my opinion good enough for a low
c) but I don't actually know
d) it's not obvious that low is in
e) but then this is a gray situation area
f) so I leveraged up, but not a lot
a) so bears tagged 2227.XX on IDC/ICE bid ask
b) in my opinion good enough for a low
c) but I don't actually know
d) it's not obvious that low is in
e) but then this is a gray situation area
f) so I leveraged up, but not a lot
Comment:
MONDAY WRAP UP: 12:27 PM ET, low probably in and 2242.xx as I type:
a) I've said this before and in long rallies, I am "leveraged long long"
b) so leveraged long for a long time
c) I lever up and down but I don't really mess with it that much
d) while I do provide notes for traders, I don't trade like that personally
e) so sometimes, it's annoying to post a lot especially when I just want to sleep
f) anyways so... we want a 2260+ close
g) I prefer a close at 2265+ but we will see, it's not like price care what I prefer
h) this thing is going to WHAT I THOUGHT WAS 2365, but we will see
i) I "think" at 2300, we should get a check to 2265..
j) in that case, I would be confident that we move to 2365
k) but if we don't check at 2300 and move straight to 2335.. we will see what happens
l) bc unlike this check-down today
m) the next one is not obvious to me
n) it is much harder to see
o) but if I have to pick one scenario it is: 2300 check to 2265 move to 2350
p) but I don't have a lot of confidence in it, it is just the only one I can think of
a) I've said this before and in long rallies, I am "leveraged long long"
b) so leveraged long for a long time
c) I lever up and down but I don't really mess with it that much
d) while I do provide notes for traders, I don't trade like that personally
e) so sometimes, it's annoying to post a lot especially when I just want to sleep
f) anyways so... we want a 2260+ close
g) I prefer a close at 2265+ but we will see, it's not like price care what I prefer
h) this thing is going to WHAT I THOUGHT WAS 2365, but we will see
i) I "think" at 2300, we should get a check to 2265..
j) in that case, I would be confident that we move to 2365
k) but if we don't check at 2300 and move straight to 2335.. we will see what happens
l) bc unlike this check-down today
m) the next one is not obvious to me
n) it is much harder to see
o) but if I have to pick one scenario it is: 2300 check to 2265 move to 2350
p) but I don't have a lot of confidence in it, it is just the only one I can think of
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Monday 04/01, 2:30 P ET 2240.XX this stalling is a problem
1) we really need a 2255+ close
2) it's not obvious why the close will be
3) that's a giant problem
4) so I am de-leveraging until I figure this one out
1) we really need a 2255+ close
2) it's not obvious why the close will be
3) that's a giant problem
4) so I am de-leveraging until I figure this one out
Comment:
5) so this post has ended, I'll post 7-2 when I have something
Comment:
3:25 PM ET, 2241.41, deleveraged completely
a) just regular long super long (like September)
b) this close is a problem
c) I have too many conflicting signals right now
d) and I can't see how this gets resolved
e) I can't prove that "low is in"
f) I also can't prove that it wont get ugly
g) there's big retrace built in to this run
h) and I had thought that we would reach at least 2320 before it would kick in
i) but the trend engine says "it's kicking in now"
j) but the run "has not run out its course"
k) but if the close is under 2244, that's giant problem
l) why?
m) bc it I have to take the retrace signal more seriously than I take the ...
n) "rally not over" signal
a) just regular long super long (like September)
b) this close is a problem
c) I have too many conflicting signals right now
d) and I can't see how this gets resolved
e) I can't prove that "low is in"
f) I also can't prove that it wont get ugly
g) there's big retrace built in to this run
h) and I had thought that we would reach at least 2320 before it would kick in
i) but the trend engine says "it's kicking in now"
j) but the run "has not run out its course"
k) but if the close is under 2244, that's giant problem
l) why?
m) bc it I have to take the retrace signal more seriously than I take the ...
n) "rally not over" signal
Comment:
o) sorry to disappoint again
p) everything was going according to plan until the last few hours
q) will post something if I have it, but this one is real puzzle for me
r) part of the reason is that the Good Friday holiday caused huge disagreements
s) between small bars and big bars, so they literally say different things
t) have a good one.
p) everything was going according to plan until the last few hours
q) will post something if I have it, but this one is real puzzle for me
r) part of the reason is that the Good Friday holiday caused huge disagreements
s) between small bars and big bars, so they literally say different things
t) have a good one.
Comment:
4:36 PM 2248.XX in aftermarket
a) so a after market I going to close strong
b) does that mean we are back on track?
c) no
d) because their's a "hard ceiling forming at 2265
e) meaning if this run get up there
f) will get shot tomorrow
g) so we a second maybe a third bottom
a) so a after market I going to close strong
b) does that mean we are back on track?
c) no
d) because their's a "hard ceiling forming at 2265
e) meaning if this run get up there
f) will get shot tomorrow
g) so we a second maybe a third bottom
Comment:
5:00 PM aftermarket closed 2250...
a) again more mixed signals
b) a 55 close would've clear things up
c) a 50 close in aftermarket leaves a lot of gray
d) but it does mean this draft MAY NOT BE DEAD
a) again more mixed signals
b) a 55 close would've clear things up
c) a 50 close in aftermarket leaves a lot of gray
d) but it does mean this draft MAY NOT BE DEAD
Comment:
5:08 PM ET, I am trying to crank out 7-2 draft before market re-opens in 50 min:
a) while I do that, consider:
a) while I do that, consider:
Comment:
b) b in chart above, yellow is draft 7-1
c) blue route is implied by NY close
d) gray route is "possible" by aftermarket close
e) NOT FAVORED, but POSSIBLE
f) with a VERY UGLY HARD DROP TUES TO WED
g) right now, it's not obvious that blue should be favored either
h) so our only option is to "play it by ear" and take whatever the market gives us
c) blue route is implied by NY close
d) gray route is "possible" by aftermarket close
e) NOT FAVORED, but POSSIBLE
f) with a VERY UGLY HARD DROP TUES TO WED
g) right now, it's not obvious that blue should be favored either
h) so our only option is to "play it by ear" and take whatever the market gives us
Comment:
i) 5:20 PM, not enough time to make new draft
j) basically gray is a DELAYED AND SHARPER VERSION OF YELLOW ROUTE
k) that's all that it is, so we will continue here until we prove/disprove it
l) because the lateness of the move back up IS A PROBLEM
m) and if you remember my notes before ...
n) late means it will get shot down BEFORE IT FINISHES
o) like FOMC move to 2222, late, so shot down
n) this one though still have enough time to make the train
j) basically gray is a DELAYED AND SHARPER VERSION OF YELLOW ROUTE
k) that's all that it is, so we will continue here until we prove/disprove it
l) because the lateness of the move back up IS A PROBLEM
m) and if you remember my notes before ...
n) late means it will get shot down BEFORE IT FINISHES
o) like FOMC move to 2222, late, so shot down
n) this one though still have enough time to make the train
Comment:
o) but as a rule, that means 2350 is NOT OBVIOUS .. BUT WE CAN DO 2300
Comment:
Comment:
6:26 PM 2254.30, just pay attention to that line
a) it cannot break
b) if it breaks, that's A PROBLEM
c) otherwise, we are going to 2300 by 8:30 AM ET
d) so 14 hours..
e) not a quick one, but not slow either
a) it cannot break
b) if it breaks, that's A PROBLEM
c) otherwise, we are going to 2300 by 8:30 AM ET
d) so 14 hours..
e) not a quick one, but not slow either
Comment:
6:53 PM ET.. WAITAMINITE ...
a) maybe not 14 hours ...
b) one trend map I'm looking at right now
c) say undeniably ... in half that time???
d) so by 2-3 AM ET
e) right before bears of the UK show up for rug pull
f) we will see... we will see
a) maybe not 14 hours ...
b) one trend map I'm looking at right now
c) say undeniably ... in half that time???
d) so by 2-3 AM ET
e) right before bears of the UK show up for rug pull
f) we will see... we will see
Comment:
g) no sideways adjustment for that map still say 7 AM
h) can't sleep.. must ... make .. more .. money
h) can't sleep.. must ... make .. more .. money
Comment:
8:45 PM ET 2253.xx, annoying:
A) it's not gray or blue
B) it's not bearish
C) it's just really hard to make out what the route should be
A) it's not gray or blue
B) it's not bearish
C) it's just really hard to make out what the route should be
Comment:
D) so until I know what it should be
E) no leverage
F) good night
E) no leverage
F) good night
Order cancelled:
9:12 PM ET
A) no clue at all here
B) I'm out
A) no clue at all here
B) I'm out
Trade active:
11:20 PM ET 2254.XX
a) so Im fully leveraged
b) and this is why
c) I know we were going to 2300 next, followed by 2350, followed by higher
d) but I can't tell you what the route is now
a) so Im fully leveraged
b) and this is why
c) I know we were going to 2300 next, followed by 2350, followed by higher
d) but I can't tell you what the route is now
Comment:
e) and the reason is that the 12 to 36 hour curves are a mess
f) its a really bad sign for bulls IN ANY OTHER SITUATION
g) except this one
h) bc the foundation is so strong, it's saying we're going no matter what
i) but remember that I am leveraged long long
j) I am willing to handle a lot of swings to get to what I think is 2440 after 2350
k) and it could all by this coming Monday like chart at top
l) but again I cannot figure out how it's supposed to happen
f) its a really bad sign for bulls IN ANY OTHER SITUATION
g) except this one
h) bc the foundation is so strong, it's saying we're going no matter what
i) but remember that I am leveraged long long
j) I am willing to handle a lot of swings to get to what I think is 2440 after 2350
k) and it could all by this coming Monday like chart at top
l) but again I cannot figure out how it's supposed to happen
Comment:
m) bc I don't have an example to go buy
n) I just know its going to happen
o) that's it, good night
n) I just know its going to happen
o) that's it, good night
Comment:
p) by the way...
q) if you play chart at top, I chose route for increasing vol as you go up bc usually that is
r) what happens
s) but the route that we are now is more gradual
t) so therefore less 2-way vol
u) it is kind of saying that if it moves slower, it can avoid the 100pt, 150 pt swings
q) if you play chart at top, I chose route for increasing vol as you go up bc usually that is
r) what happens
s) but the route that we are now is more gradual
t) so therefore less 2-way vol
u) it is kind of saying that if it moves slower, it can avoid the 100pt, 150 pt swings
Comment:
Tues 4/2. I've got the route.
a) it's this week
b) all of it this week
c) and really seems like BEFORE FRIDAY'S NFP
d) which makes means get out Thursday night.. hehe...
e) I'll post DRAFT 7-2 later today
f) in the mean time it is like I thought... less 2-way vol on the way up
g) until the last 2 moves one to 2320...
h) and the second one, I want to say 2365
I) but that's not a lot over 2320 considering all the work price put in since
m) since Valetine's Day 1990s
n) so the second should be higher
o) but you are talking about a 44-year trend line sitting at 2350
p) I am not confident enough to say price spikes to 24xx vs that line
q) so there
a) it's this week
b) all of it this week
c) and really seems like BEFORE FRIDAY'S NFP
d) which makes means get out Thursday night.. hehe...
e) I'll post DRAFT 7-2 later today
f) in the mean time it is like I thought... less 2-way vol on the way up
g) until the last 2 moves one to 2320...
h) and the second one, I want to say 2365
I) but that's not a lot over 2320 considering all the work price put in since
m) since Valetine's Day 1990s
n) so the second should be higher
o) but you are talking about a 44-year trend line sitting at 2350
p) I am not confident enough to say price spikes to 24xx vs that line
q) so there
Comment:
4/2, 9:41 AM, 2263.XX, so here's what I have until I write it up:
Comment:
11:31, HOLD ON, WATCHING THIS SELL OFF FROM 76 TO 2253...
a) gotta make sure
b) in case
a) gotta make sure
b) in case
Comment:
c) that was reaction to just ONE of 16 FED SPEAKERS FROM TODAY TO FRIDAY..
d) I gotta make REALLY SURE here
d) I gotta make REALLY SURE here
Comment:
e) on the scale of this move a 27 pt retrace is not a big deal
b) but the fact that happened that quickly causes some technical damage
c) for short term intraday regression waves
d) is not "a problem" yet
e) this can be corrected by moving back to 2270 soon, like today, twice
f) meaning bc of zig zag, price need to get back in that zone twice to ..
g) "correct the waves"
b) but the fact that happened that quickly causes some technical damage
c) for short term intraday regression waves
d) is not "a problem" yet
e) this can be corrected by moving back to 2270 soon, like today, twice
f) meaning bc of zig zag, price need to get back in that zone twice to ..
g) "correct the waves"
Comment:
h) 12:01 PM 2259.XX first opportunity is in 15 min
i) but we have another fed speaker in 5 min....
j) so we need to get to 68-70 before people can react to the speech
i) but we have another fed speaker in 5 min....
j) so we need to get to 68-70 before people can react to the speech
Comment:
k) 12:16 PM ET... so not quick route meaning slow route
l) in which the requirements are::
1) obviously hold 2250
2) stair case up
3) NEW HIGH OVER NIGHT BEFORE WED AM
4) 2285-2290 need to get hit
5) why?
6) to correct the technical damage of this spike down
7) or it's not happening
8) I took the opportunity here to leverage up at 2254 just in case I'm right
9) I am so extremely leveraged it's so dumb, I better get this right or else
l) in which the requirements are::
1) obviously hold 2250
2) stair case up
3) NEW HIGH OVER NIGHT BEFORE WED AM
4) 2285-2290 need to get hit
5) why?
6) to correct the technical damage of this spike down
7) or it's not happening
8) I took the opportunity here to leverage up at 2254 just in case I'm right
9) I am so extremely leveraged it's so dumb, I better get this right or else
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
a) in chart above, viewed from a trader's position (daily)
b) if you get a spike for 20 pts out of nowhere
c) you SELL THAT, so it's just normal price action and nothing to worry about
d) YET
b) if you get a spike for 20 pts out of nowhere
c) you SELL THAT, so it's just normal price action and nothing to worry about
d) YET
Comment:
12:49 trend engine says bulls want vengeance
a) so they want a quick resolution '
b) meaning they want 2280-90 TONIGHT, maybe 10 PM ET OR EALIER
c) and OF COURSE, IT WILL GET SOLD FURIOUSLY AGAIN
d) I'm almost done with 7-2
a) so they want a quick resolution '
b) meaning they want 2280-90 TONIGHT, maybe 10 PM ET OR EALIER
c) and OF COURSE, IT WILL GET SOLD FURIOUSLY AGAIN
d) I'm almost done with 7-2
Comment:
1:33 PM ET, 2261.XX, THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS DRAFT 7-2:
Comment:
2:30 ooh... interesting... not selling off of 71...
a) spike ceiling is 84. are they gonna go for it?
b) seems too quick but this rally has been repressed for 3 weeks now so ..
c) you need a main long position that DOESNT GET TRADED for this to be worth it
a) spike ceiling is 84. are they gonna go for it?
b) seems too quick but this rally has been repressed for 3 weeks now so ..
c) you need a main long position that DOESNT GET TRADED for this to be worth it
Related Ideas
