How long do we have before the next crash?
How many months until we've reached the market top? Hopefully not yet!
My estimate is a top in June 2024, when the FED starts cutting rates.
Every time the yield curve has gone negative, a market crash follows eventually. The trick is knowing when that happens. Nobody knows.
When the yield inversion starts rising again, that's a sign it's about to pop. Better start selling out of markets into USD. DXY will start rising again eventually.
Looking at the charts, my guess is 3-6 months tops before we...
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The carry trade - an investment strategy that takes advantage of differences in borrowing costs between countries - has provided bumper returns this year as most central banks have hiked rates, causing yields to rise, but at different paces.
"The world's favourite carry trade," according to Bank of America, involves investors borrowing Japanese yen where the...
US Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%.
At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in...
Going into this weeks trading, I was exuberant about the third profit @ 4.40% but the highest yields went up to was 4.321% before a shift in market structure occurred on a smaller timeframe.
Currently closed @ 4.184% with a higher possibility of macro EQ @ 4.137% being the next target.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below):
Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the...
I know the idea of lower rates / lower equities sounds silly by classic theory but if you close social media and go through the historic events you'll see it's more common.
When rates are rising we usually rally for at least 3-6 months and more commonly somewhere like a year.
The classic sell signal at the top of big trends has been price selling off a bit...
Based on the moves from Treasury yields during the previous week, it seems that Fed's rate cuts are coming. This is what the market is saying, however, we still need this input from the Fed. At this moment, it is irrelevant whether it will be at March`s FOMC meeting or later within the course of this year, the important thing is that the market is now certain...
US10Y broke out of the orange rising wedge downward.
It bounced off of the teal upward trendline, retesting the rising wedge.
Last week it also printed inverted hammer candle stick.
Next support level would be 3.3%.
We started with continued upside movement with Friday creating the shift in market structure. My overall bias was bullish and still is on a macro perspective up to 4.40%.
Thursday and Friday were the days that we witnessed buy stop raid before a reverse which gives me the idea that we are in the cards for some form of continued retracement, at least up to the...
It seems that the market would have to wait longer than initially anticipated for the first rate cut. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed during the previous week showed that Fed officials are optimistic regarding the outcome of already taken monetary measures, however, they would like to be certain that the inflation is clearly on the road toward the targeted 2%,...
US10Y weekly parabolic trend crosses.
As we know US10Y is one of the most important parameters for all investors.
In this idea,
- Shows parabolic trends in logaritmic scale.
- Added date for parabolic trend crosses.
This chart is published as an educational purpose and not a financial advice in any case.
All responsibilty of useage this charts is yours.
