The 20 year bond yield is finishing up a 5 month Bear Flag Pattern and on the inverse TLT is finishing up a 5 month Bull Flag Pattern. The Bond Market smells a Fed Pivot in the works. I bought TLT on 3/21/24 and will hold until we reverse at resistance at $96.50. If we break through resistance at $96.50 then momma gets a new card baby because we are going above...
Playing safe this week as last weeks projection was stretched to 4.401% but top formed @ 4.348%.
Immediate Swing high and low in relation to current price means we are currently in a discount market with last weeks updated projection of 4.19% still up for grabs and macro EQ @ 4.137% also up for debate if the sell programme continues.
My philosophy is...
Interesting what one day can do for a chart!
The trend is still up but #interestrates look fairly weak today.
The 1 & 2 year are not so bad but the 10 & 30 year look weaker.
TVC:TNX
US #Dollar still looks okay though, at least for now.
TVC:DXY
Let's look at rates for a bit.
Short term #yield is slowly climbing the trend line.
1 & 2 Year.
Longer term #interestrates look similar to the short term.
10 & 30 Year.
US #Dollar not as strong as bond yields but it is trading similar to them.
TVC:TNX TVC:DXY
Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some...
High U.S. Yields vs. Alternative stocks such as NASDAQ:TSLA #Tesla OMXCOP:VWS #Vestas OMXCOP:ORSTED #Ørsted OMXSTO:PCELL #Powercell.
Thesis is yields down, alternatives up.
This is the yearly perspective Ten-year Treasury. Note the break of the secular downtrend and the push above the 3.35% pivot. It's worth noting that the MACD oscillator has turned higher for the first time since 1985.
The basic definition of an uptrend is a market consistently defining higher highs and higher lows. For instance, a great example of a downtrend...
Understanding yield curve correlations is essential for traders and investors seeking diversification and hedging opportunities across forex, indices, and commodity markets. The yield curve, a graphical representation of bond yields across different maturities, provides valuable insights into interest rate expectations, economic conditions, and market...
Discussing the sell off in semis today.
Potential reversal in Nat gas
Bitcoin & crypto selloff.
FOMC tomorrow: No rate cut.
Will Powell come out hawkish tomorrow? its looking likely he will based off of the BOJ rate hike. Oil surging doesn't help the dovish case.
Commodities breaking out doesn't help the inflation fight.
Analysing the US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Fed Meeting Focus and Key Resistance Levels
Market attention is currently fixated on the upcoming two-day Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. The expectation is for the Fed to maintain interest rates at their current level, with investors closely monitoring any updates to economic projections and...
4.329% - 4.354% is unfinished business!
A healthy retracement to 4.200% is not ruled out and would be considered as 'healthy' as price action would still be in a premium.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
-...
Since the beginning of this year, until last week, the markets were certain that inflation is on the down-path and that the Fed might cut interest rates somewhere in May this year. However, the February inflation data made the markets rethink their initial assumptions. The inflation seems to be more persistent than initially estimated, in which sense, the rate...
The 20 year Bond Yields has been in a channel since 12/2023. On the weekly, it has hit resistance twice and bounced off. We are approaching a third attempt to break through. Iff it does, whhen it does, its' going to 6%.
This week was a waterfall.
Next week will be the week of short seller payback!
A continuation of yields trading @ CE; 4.046%, even sweeping Sellside liquidity @ 4.038% is still a possibility but for the past 4 days, the sentiment is more weighted to the downside rather than the upside, with the lowest displacement NWOG being my last line of defence @...
The SG10Y Bond Yields spiked and got back into the range. Then it spiked further today attempting to breakout from the Gann Fan trendline. MACD somewhat supportive but not yet crossed over.
An early indication of an imminent retracement (indicated within the range).
Any further and stronger break would suggest a bigger correction incoming; IMHO, overdue.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target...
