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Recently USTs moved a lot lower as yields continued to push higher on inflation fears and hawkish guidance and communication from Fed. With investors and traders focusing on the 3.5% before any significant correction in stocks.
However with the recent push hitting 3.23%, US stocks plunged sparking global risk off sentiment. As such USTs found support from safe ...
Are you afraid of the Italians? Yes. The 10-year government bond interest rate track shows no optimistic signs. Although we are waiting for a slump because of the pace of the first wave of the triple wave structure at the correction phase of the first wave of the triple wave structure, but a few days maybe a week and the decline in the interest rate may end. Then, ...
US10Y long. Future forecasts for dollar interest rates may rise further. The US10Y exchange rate may start the second wave of a triple ascending wave structure. A D1 ATR axle rising, the second wave top being 3.16% environment. Then, we wait for correction again before reaching the third wave periodus whose top is 3.42%.
Triangle of minor fourth wave still in play (just completed c possibly). Higher in d then pullback in e to finish wave iv before thrust higher to 3.80% in coming weeks/months to finish wave 3/C before wider consolidation at higher yield levels
secondary top in place on FOMC now headed down in wave 3 or c towards (beyond?) 2.60s%
Follow up to posts from around a month/6 weeks ago....Italian 10yr yields headed higher to at least 3.80% imo.
Currently in a wave iv triangle (just finished c, need to do d then e) before a thrust higher in yield towards target in coming few weeks/months
Looks like we finished wave 2/B higher and now set for a C/3rd leg lower to low 2.60s %
Just updated trading scenario from a month ago (yields at 3% looking for top 3.10-3.20% zone, actual high 3.13%). Recent fall in yields potentially only the first leg lower in a larger drop. Possible H+S top pattern in play on break and close below 2.75% could easily see sub 2.50% and perhaps 2.35% area despite FED next week (expecting +25bps) which should lead to ...
Since the recent close above 1.40% the spread widening has accelerated as anticipated. MAY (repeat may) get some pause in the 2.00%-2.12% zone but imo the next logical stopping points are not until those levels marked on the chart....
10-year yield curve US-German comparison. The comparison aims at further understanding the EURUSD track. The DE10Y yield curve shows that the decreasing correction structure (red line) is shorter. But it can also be seen that the size of the fractals (green wave) before them is getting smaller. It can have two consequences. The first is that a drop in yields is ...
It still looks to me like we have more room on the upside for US 10y yields (bond prices lower) short term. FED tonight probably a wash but a hike in June is locked in currently so expect yields to rise over coming days/weeks until something changes.
Potential Short bringing the Yields back down to 2.5% pricing in the next leg up.
US10Y is watching the world now. The exchange rate is in the form of a downward correction and a double rising waveform. The bottom of the current correction is 3,013 The current waveform (BC) can be of a similar size to the predecessor first wave structure (0A). If the technical identification is correct, the (BC) wave structure target price is 3.289
Monthly inside bar failure in play.
Reversal pattern on a smaller time frame, with identifiable stops above to reach IHS target.
triple top, key resistance, high volume target at the 50% fib following the strong rally and break of channel.
pullback to 50% would be a nice return to volume area following an anticipated sustained rejection at resistance currently.