10 year looks to be heading to 5 or 5.5 %. MACD and RSI showing upward trend on weekly still. Upward fib extension looks to retest previous high or beyond if Fed doesn’t lower rates anytime soon. Looking for CPI prints to see whether Inflation is going back up which may impact 10 year and I believe the market will continue down while 10 year heads upwards so I’m...
My projection for this week was a bit late but nonetheless, bullish projections of lowest displacement fair value gap was the target and yields achieved it, topping out just before CE was met @ 4.696%. Shortly after, yields witnessed a sharp paintbrush retracement mid week and never closed out higher than the highs printed on Wednesday 17th April 2024.
On...
Sometimes a drawing can speak better than words, or at least present an idea in a better and more efficient way. This project involves projected tendencies and forces that might affect the price, represented with the curves as attractors and influencers with their respective arrows pointing the direction of the potential simulated pressure applied to the...
1O YR yields may have topped and are retracing to 4.4%. ⤵️
TLT which have an inverse relationship with the yields are reversing back up. 📈
Time to short 10 YR YIELDS and Long TLT? 🤔
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Introduction:
I won't have many comments on the US 10-Year Treasury Bonds (US10Y) as the statements made by Chairman Powell could alter the chart. In my estimation, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts for a while, which could have positive implications for the price of gold.
Technical Analysis:
The chart for US 10-Year Treasury Bonds...
To be or not to be – the rate cut this year? The markets switched their expectations from March and May toward September, although currently not with high certainty. Recent data show still high resilience of the US economy on tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was a figure much higher from 0.3% expected by...
The US treasury market is becoming agitated at the latest Fed stance that rates may most likely remain unchanged through the 2Q2024 and 3Q2024 which has put upward pressure on the US treasury yields. US 10-year yields broke back above 4.50% last week and a continued sell-off will see yields spike back to 5.00% for as long as the current Fed narrative holds it...
Last weeks bullish projection played out as expected with the monthly OB and liquidity void being met by the end of this weeks trading.
Trend is your friend and although it's not guaranteed we will continue to trend upwards, there's a higher probability that US10Y does rather than not on a weekly timeframe. This does not mean this weeks price action will reprice...
US short term funding requirements (33% of existing debt to mature next year) + a clean unbroken trend seems to head the 10 yr yield to 5.2%. This view doesn't constitute investment advice.
It's reasonably well appreciated that the biggest component of the dollar index DXY is the euro. Therefore when trying toanalyse the future direction of the Dollar one needs to consider what is happening to the spread between yields in the two main economic areas (US and Germany as a proxy). If we look at US10Y-DE10Y historically we can see, as might be expected,...
This is my perspective on the forces that might apply on the UK 10Y Gilt. It can climb along the red rectangles to fall down to the big green or if the first red rejects it or the bottom arc attracts it, we might see support in that area. The vertical green is a special one where unusual or special circumstances and price action might occur, either higher...
Another TLT play is about to start. The 20 year bond yields are rejecting off the channels resistance and will likely move back down to the 200 mda and maybe the bottom of the 4 months upward channel. TLT will respond inversely to this. I have been playing TMV and TMF back and forth since November. I'm up 70% over that time. I'll will likely buy into TMF...
Historically when Bonds and US Dollar DXY are down, then Commodities go up. Their inverse correlation is currently broken.
Just something to monitor and warning that something is out of order which should be ringing alarm bells
US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield X Right Prices for year 2024.
4.729%
4.892%
4.862%
4.954%
April Distribution price: 5.031%, 5.061%
It may also arrive at 5.212%
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After the Distribution price we will expect a drop to, 4.622% range.
Then expecting the prices for Advance stage:
5.344%
5.471%
5.700%
We may have mid Retest...
