We are witnessing extremely critical times. I see the price action from the lows more corrective than impulsive. We are the upper area of the channel with an AB=CD in a massive change of polarity zone.
I see bulls having hard time breaking this zone. This would imply EURO strength and DAX weakness.
On the other hand, I see EURO going down against Aussie and...
What is the Bund?
The Bund is the German 10-Year Treasury bill, also known as a government bond. A holder of a bond is a creditor, and the issuer of a bond is called a borrower or debtor. When the price of the Bund increases, the yield received on that bond decreases and vice versa.
What is the relationship between Bund and EURUSD? Why is this relationship...
- Ichimoku setup remains bearish. Kijun Sen stopped short term buyers again, Price turns down from 152+ bearish support.
- Heikin Ashi showed undecision yesterday, and sell signal confirmed today.
I am just thinking about the meaning of this price action:
1. Maybe market is not scared of this Greek story at all. Bund doesn't act as safe haven, no panic buying.
2....
As expected, the pull back worked, Price retested Kijun Sen, which again proved to be a strong bearish support.
Bund is still a sell. The 5th bearish wave has started today. Let's see how deep it goes.
However looking at the weekly chart, I have the feeling that we will see some normalisation in volatility. That means we'll see less agressive moves, and maybe...
What a collapse! Of course I closed my previous short too early, but never mind, on such a volatile mkt like Bund is recently, it is hard to call bottoms and these kind of profits in 2-3 days are still quite good.
Watch out now! Bund reached important resistance on weekly. We will likle ysee some pull back up to bearish supports. I opened some counter trend...
The support area in the rectangle has some unique characteristics that makes it a good place to expect the recent Bund sell-off to halt:
1- Trendline
2- 50% Retracement
3- Change of Polarity zone
Until that area, I don't see any reliable support on the chart and expect the Bund price to keep falling.
Good luck,
Ali Sharifazadeh, CFTe
Risk Disclaimer -Technically it look right but fundamentally the ECB is backing the Bund. Will you fight it?
Short at 156.02 (or start building from 1.55.90)
Stop at 156.56 (risk is 54 pips)
Target 1 at 154.07 (Gap with reward at 195 pips)
Target 2 at 153.92 (Gap with reward at 210 pips)
We currently see a correction of the massive selloff, which triggered some panic all around the financial space. Investors, espec leveraged guys started to panic, bears who had been chasing it before and missed the break started to panic, aaaaaand especially the guys at ECB started to panic: "WTF??? Collapse in bonds when we do QE? + EURUSD up to 1,15 from 1,05...
Greece is threatening default, it has been declared that there is no money to make the IMF payment and negotiations are going bad. This is a clear triangle count that should should be wave iv of an impulse down in Bund. It is consistent with the risk of default and Bund ratings that are fragile at the this point in time. Sell the Bund on the breakdown!
The recent drop did not happen because Bill Gross said it should happen. Bund futures is one of the biggest markets, if not the most liquid, so Bill Gross might have been short for a while, but him alone can not move the price. What he as one of the oldest and smartest bond investors can achive though is to open others' eyes with his comments.
I think that is what...
You may think equities are in bubble. but in fact the real and massive bubble is in the global bond markets.
The Bund has reached all time low yield at 31 bps (0,31 %), which is now lower than Japan 10y bond yield at 35-36 bps. If I want to be sarcastic, I could say "what a great value!". But in fact this is a great example of how distorted mkts can become due to...
Daily: Absolutely long term bullish picture, but Slow Stoch and MACD warns for a possible correction down to Kijun Sen, which is in line with horizontal support marked by Chikou Span peaks.
4 Hrs: No real sell signal yet, watch Kijun Sen here at 147,95. This level is in line with Daily Tenkan Sen.
1 Hr: Top consolidatio with Price enterring Kumo, flat Tenkan...
Despite the fact that price advanced to a major sell area, it could advance higher. The 142.00 level was a 50% retrace of the previous upswing which started 2014.
Bund tried to break higher, but it was enough only for a Kijun retest. Price turned down again from 144 level, and by now is back into the Kumo. 142-144 range is expected to stay for some time, but the bias is bearish.
Slow Stoch sell signal, MACD turnind down again, DMI is zig-zag with low ADX, Future Kumo bearish cross.
Sell in 143-143,50 range in more clips...
