In this chart I'm sharing my breakdown of the relative strength analysis of currencies, as suggested by Ashraf Laidi in his book 'Currency trading and intermarket analysis', a great read that was reccomended to me by David Alcindor. Thanks for that one David. I'll quickly summarize my train of thought here: I see the cnh and gbp as interesting long prospects...
Some fundamentals: + Norwegian inflation is at 3.3% (little or no room for monetary easing) +Price of Brent recovering + Massive current account surplus -Huge drop in GDP growth to 0,1% - Deteriorating consumer sentiment
A series of events took place causing me sit back and contemplate market participants (in)sanity. First, it is known that I've was one of the first to stick my neck out and tell it how it is – the U.S. Is facing a recession in 2016 – last April. Soon after, various investment banks flirted with the potential but gave the very realistic situation very low...
It is clear that the U.S. dollar has been one of the biggest hedge fund crowded trades, and still remains despite recent pullbacks in the greenback. And, although, the DXY saw a violent decent following last week's dovish FOMC-minutes report, there is still an underlying dynamic that supports a much higher dollar. History may not repeat, but it often rhymes....
Gold prices have been volatile, flucuating between $1,275 and $1,220 as markets remain indecisive on what stance to take: is the Federal Reserve going to continue hiking assuming the economy will "gradually improve," or with traders continue to look for safer locations to place there cash? According to recent capital flow data, the GLD has seen redemption as...
macro money margin market models momentum net offer ofset open order options paid pair patient pips portfolio profit pullback put quoStill waitingte rally range rate realmoney retail risk sector sell settlement short slippage spot stoploss swap swiss takeprofit technical trade trading trader traderslife trend unemployment value volatility wedge work
Despite what so-called gold bugs have been trying to predict for years, it still remains seen how valuable the most "hated" asset on Wall Street can be. Calls of $10- or $50,000 gold have made headlines and often laughs, but when investors take into account the supporting fundamentals, gold can be extremely beneficial during these centrally-planned...
Is the once Goldman Sachs "slam dunk sell" turning into a layup buy? I cannot hate the initial call from many investment bank analysts it to sink to $1,000 because, in 2013, I issued a $1,035 bear-call. However, I do ridicule these analysts for unwillingly (either through ignorance or moral hazard) understanding the dynamics of gold. But in 2014 I turned rather...
Traders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback. Here , we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11...
Caddy approaching serious technical support zone (1,33-1,34) -200 dma + trendline Need to watch for crude oil price as USDCAD and WTI intraday correlation is very strong. Also waiting for bullish reversal candlestick formation, not opening position without seeing that. Fundamentally both US and Canadian GDP figures outperformed, inflation momentum is picking...
The recent risk rally has encouraged commodity currencies higher. As crude ignores the globalized downturn in economic output and ongoing "pump at all costs" mantra of producers, the Canadian dollar has hit a three-month high against the dollar. Crude aside, traders have also factored in the fact that the potential for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada had...
Gold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months. After gold volatility hit...
With markets on edge and Japanese inflation data this week, those short the yen are hoping the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko " Kamikaze " Kuroda, will further increase the balance sheet through more quantitative easing. Because when everything else fails, he'll try to go all in. Or will he? Essentially, his brilliant idea to implement negative rates, or NIRP,...
Brent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.) Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but...
Long term view of the dow since the post war boom adjusted for consumer prices. Symbol: DJY0 / CPIAUCSL
Currently, gold is budding up against intraday resistance, following two consecutive sessions of gains on a weaker dollar. As the rate hike came and went, many – even those who ushered in the hike with excitement – are beginning to wonder if the Federal Reserve waited far too long to boost interest rates. The yellow metal had began its two-day rally by finding...
Precious metals jump higher ahead of today’s FOMC minutes and potentially the first rate hike in the U.S. since 2007. Why? It’s most likely contributed to the fact that the majority of market participants believe Fed Chair Janet Yellen will remain extremely dovish post-rate increase. A dovish hike may be a hard sell , as Nomura suggests, but precious metals may...
Primary correction ABC with B as a triangle indicates (C) is the final move before the trend change. Is the Fed going to the printing presses to drive heightened inflation leading to sub .6 target for primary circle 3? See analysis from 11 months ago...