If you expect an uptick in inflation like I do in the US, the Financials could be a good way to play this.
With USD down more than 10% this year, commodities having risen by more, and continued labour market tightness, inflation could surprise to the upside over the next few months and $XLF could be the proxy to play this, rather than being short bonds - which...
Why has the relationship between inflation and unemployment reversed in recent times? (Phillips curve) -
1. 1980s vs 2017 - Expansion in govt and consumer credit, economic boom, demographics
2. unemployment manipulation/ part time, participation rate 4pts lower 63 vs 67.
3. Servicing debt rather than consuming more goods/ services - wage v debt differential