Since mid-summer 2014 the 10-Year Treasury Yield started correlating with WTI Crude Oil, which can be seen on the image below: The correlation was established as a result of dynamics of oil prices, when falling oil was perceived as a risk to inflation. Expectations of lower inflation have driven the 10-Year Yield down with the WTI Oil. Market has perceived...
Gold is hated but most because it is the antithesis of greed, which has been feed for years by central banks around the world. I'll be frank, I was rather bearish on the shiny metal an forecasted $1,035 per toz. in 2013. However, as the charade of lackluster growth and quasi-monetary policy continued, gold's fundamentals are bullish. It is too simplistic to...
Overvalued Swiss franc? On march 19th, 2015 SNB left benchmark interest rates @ -1.25% and -0.5% and -0.75% on deposits, to discourage holding investments in Swiss Franc. The bank believes that the Franc is overvalued and should continue to weaken overtime. The SNB revised down growth in the Swiss economy to 1% from 2%. They believe that a stronger Franc keeps...
Traders knocked gold below $1,200 for the time being, as market participants determine whether or not the Federal Reserve will hike the Fed funds rate for the first time since 2006. The Fed is stringing along financial markets. Either the economy is strong and deserve a tightening of monetary policy, or it is not. The voting members of the FOMC still remain...
To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective. Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by...
Historically, gold and the US dollar move inverse of each other. Time to abandon this preconception? The US dollar is going strong, but is it time to change the preconception that a strong US dollar is automatically bad for gold? Perhaps. The inverse relation has historically occurred, but in times of uncertainty, the inverse breaks and gold typically remains on...
(Originally posted yesterday with appropriate charts) Gold takes a breather, while negative data continues to pour in. Gold’s inability to close above $1,300 is a mild hit for bulls, but prices will likely consolidate prior to the next leg higher. Prices declined to $1,280 per toz., just above the descending trend line, now support. The likely scenario is that...
I was inspired by a really poorly done analysis showing the current administration's (huge successes) policy on the markets and jobless claims. Basically making the claim about how much further we can still go with jobless claims. Also wanted to play with utilizing Quandl data within Tradingview. So, I took a step back (because they only published the last 5 years...
Gold is up 9 percent YTD. Gold is on a tear since I warned that negative price action was waning on January 6 (here). Gold has been able to overtake the $1,240 per toz. hump and chug along on global growth concerns. The IMF, just among the bunch, lowered the outlook for growth prospects; and the second largest economy – China – is pulling back, down to the...
Gold climbs higher on traders looking for safety, albeit crude, equities, the ECB or Greece. As what was considered a year for the “secular” bull market to continue higher, 2015 is looking to start the year rather tumultuous. In “Gold $1,200 – A Line in the Sand,” gold began to form a descending channel after breaking through the previous ascending channel. I...
Gold is probably the most hated financial instrument among the Wall Street elite. Higher gold prices would assume that this so-called economic recovery was not as real as they thought. Given the bearish all-out attack on gold and the well-sought after $1,000 mark, gold has be resilient and rallied quite nicely. There are a few factors for gold's rally....
I am bearish on the US dollar, and I expect the loonie to gain ground. The BoC is not engaging in reckless monetary policy, even though, at times, traders found them absent. Canadian CPI is stronger - just above two percent YoY - than in the US, which should favor CAD. The Fed wants a weaker dollar. The Fed said it; Yellen said it. Don't fight the Fed, right? The...
Here is my short-term view: tinyurl.com A continued weakened USDCHF will support gold prices.
We've arrived at heavy demand area. Pair should reman consolidated until we encounter a solid reason to break through this level or bounce up. Seems like situation will be simillar to the one when we were at this price level previuosly /yellow square @ Feb 2014/, yet the outcome might be opposite. I'd suggest playing it safe&technical now = from support to...
We have a quiet situation again where the further movements are dependent to the upcoming data about the US economy. If the economy has positive results the price will fall and if not then it may break upwards.
It looks like everyone is trying to pick the bottom on EUR/USD in last few days, is there any chance that last week lows at 1,336 level will work as an bottom for few next weeks ? Just to clarify I'm bearish on EUR/USD in Longer term but we really might be starting an corection phase here and now. Techs : * 1,335 - 1,34 Level is an Huge demand zone at daily and...
We do have 2 datas in hand. 1-FED will not review its interest rate on the upside before 1Q15. 2-BoJ is planning to reach it's inflation Target. Japan will release important figure this week that may affect the pair. therefore one should be very caution before entering the market. Having said that, on a long term basis, BoJ and FED are planning to increase...
Coincidentally, TIP has a reverse head and shoulder breakout. This seems to suggest inflation expectation is on the rise, and owning GLD is more favorable than owning DXY (dollar).