2360-2600-3300-5400 DRAFT 6-6: RUNAWAY TOP INTO GIANT TRIANGLE
Introduction - Looks like we are moving for 2300 and 2400 in a runaway top for 3/31 and 4/01.
As of 5:28 PM ET on 03/25/24, every prerequisite is in place and Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine explicitly calls for this move to be the outright favorite. For the next 10 hours, if price stays under 2175, this makes this outcome even more likely as the trend coiling will reach its maximum possible stage to reach for 2400 before NY opens on 04/01/24.
Details - See previous drafts for details. Per usual will add more as we go. In chart above, the blank rectangle in the middle is Good Friday. The light blue route was the previous "favorite outcome". However, with price "'super coiling" under 2180, it is not obvious the spike will stop at 2307. Odds favor a check-down to 2250-ish and immediately moving for 2400. This is illustrated by the bright yellow hi-light. And our giant triangle, is not going away:
As of 5:28 PM ET on 03/25/24, every prerequisite is in place and Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine explicitly calls for this move to be the outright favorite. For the next 10 hours, if price stays under 2175, this makes this outcome even more likely as the trend coiling will reach its maximum possible stage to reach for 2400 before NY opens on 04/01/24.
Details - See previous drafts for details. Per usual will add more as we go. In chart above, the blank rectangle in the middle is Good Friday. The light blue route was the previous "favorite outcome". However, with price "'super coiling" under 2180, it is not obvious the spike will stop at 2307. Odds favor a check-down to 2250-ish and immediately moving for 2400. This is illustrated by the bright yellow hi-light. And our giant triangle, is not going away:
Comment:
Comment:
8:38 PM ET, shifting now:
Comment:
a) in chart above, it's 2195-2005 tomorrow PM
b) either afternoon or before midnight
c) right now, it's starting to look like before NY close
b) either afternoon or before midnight
c) right now, it's starting to look like before NY close
Comment:
Comment:
10:10, insisted on checking to 2167 for symmetry
a) so at this point in time, this double spike to almost 2400 is still the favorite
b) we know now that 2200 is late Tuesday OR early Wednesday
c) if it shifts to mid-day Wednesday, then odds start to swing for light blue route in chart at top
a) so at this point in time, this double spike to almost 2400 is still the favorite
b) we know now that 2200 is late Tuesday OR early Wednesday
c) if it shifts to mid-day Wednesday, then odds start to swing for light blue route in chart at top
Comment:
11:12 PM ET, 2169.xx it's not going to be that fast.
a) odds are dropping now
b) I I had shifted a couple hours ago I just didn't look hard enough
c) so what now?
d) we are going up, to 2365-2380
e) I give up on trying to nail the date
f) bc this one was literally perfect and it just broke ....
g) just buy and hold to 2350 and sell it there
h) I'm so annoyed with these maps now
a) odds are dropping now
b) I I had shifted a couple hours ago I just didn't look hard enough
c) so what now?
d) we are going up, to 2365-2380
e) I give up on trying to nail the date
f) bc this one was literally perfect and it just broke ....
g) just buy and hold to 2350 and sell it there
h) I'm so annoyed with these maps now
Comment:
5:58 AM, 2191, dropping from 2195 spike
a) my problem is the constant shifting nature of these maps
b) all can say is we are going are higher
c) but really can't "adjust to it continuously"
d) only software can do that
a) my problem is the constant shifting nature of these maps
b) all can say is we are going are higher
c) but really can't "adjust to it continuously"
d) only software can do that
Comment:
e) does that make sense?
f) so now that we have the spike up
g) I really don't trust this runaway spike anymore than I trust the other route
h) see two routes in chart at top
i) the only way to be sure continuously is to update continuously
j) but we already knew that the last time we this setup in December when it ran to 2140s
f) so now that we have the spike up
g) I really don't trust this runaway spike anymore than I trust the other route
h) see two routes in chart at top
i) the only way to be sure continuously is to update continuously
j) but we already knew that the last time we this setup in December when it ran to 2140s
Comment:
k) we already knew that when I was doing daily binaries around the clock
l) so back to your strategy
m) i's hold to a big target
n) trading in and out is only doable if you have "a new draft" 3-4 times a day
o) and we already knew that last October...
l) so back to your strategy
m) i's hold to a big target
n) trading in and out is only doable if you have "a new draft" 3-4 times a day
o) and we already knew that last October...
Comment:
6:09 AM ET, What did we learn from the "2150 by 03/08" series?
a) its ended up doing one of the older drafts (that were closed)
b) so it's not like I am going to be surprised if ends up doing DRAFT 5
c) by the time we are on "DRAFT 6-25" or something
a) its ended up doing one of the older drafts (that were closed)
b) so it's not like I am going to be surprised if ends up doing DRAFT 5
c) by the time we are on "DRAFT 6-25" or something
Comment:
6:35 AM ET - WRAPPING THIS POST
a) so it's already shifted
b) so choose a big target like 2250, 2300, 2350 and trade those
c) the wort case scenario 2365 on 4/12 or Sunday 4/14
d) have a good one
a) so it's already shifted
b) so choose a big target like 2250, 2300, 2350 and trade those
c) the wort case scenario 2365 on 4/12 or Sunday 4/14
d) have a good one
Comment:
7:48 AM - to answer what "shifted meant
a) we are going up to 2365-2385
b) but the timing and in-between check-downs require constant drafting
c) so just buy and hold and choose a big number 2250-2300-2350
d) once over 2350 (44-year trend line)
e) watch out for rugpull at anytime w/o warning
f) that's it...
a) we are going up to 2365-2385
b) but the timing and in-between check-downs require constant drafting
c) so just buy and hold and choose a big number 2250-2300-2350
d) once over 2350 (44-year trend line)
e) watch out for rugpull at anytime w/o warning
f) that's it...
Comment:
g) if I have to choose, yellow route (for this post) remains the favorite until proven otherwise
h) but I can already see how 2307 will not break
I) so it's the favorite, but super long term trend spot THE HIGH on 04/12 or 04/14
m) but those trends also have 25xx for that date... which I disagree with bc it's too early
n) but if 2385 hits before Monday open in London, then it's also NOT obvious the long term trends are wrong about 25xx
o) it's too much analyzing
p) in summary buy and hold for a big number
h) but I can already see how 2307 will not break
I) so it's the favorite, but super long term trend spot THE HIGH on 04/12 or 04/14
m) but those trends also have 25xx for that date... which I disagree with bc it's too early
n) but if 2385 hits before Monday open in London, then it's also NOT obvious the long term trends are wrong about 25xx
o) it's too much analyzing
p) in summary buy and hold for a big number
Comment:
10:56 AM 2180.XX even though it looks different now, we are still aiming for 2365 or higher by 4/12, so:'
a) yesterday I posted this in previous draft:
a) yesterday I posted this in previous draft:
Comment:
b) this is still true
c) the way that price corrected the move to 2166 by moving to 2200+ earlier...
d) outpace the runaway spike
e) so now it's not the favorite, the favorite for Sunday is 2305-ish top
f) but that doesn't change the nature of the entry right here
c) the way that price corrected the move to 2166 by moving to 2200+ earlier...
d) outpace the runaway spike
e) so now it's not the favorite, the favorite for Sunday is 2305-ish top
f) but that doesn't change the nature of the entry right here
Comment:
11:42 AM 2172.XX put a stop in somwhere
Comment:
Comment:
Thursday, March 28th, 7:49 PM, re-continuing here from DRAFT 6-9. First, the critical notes:
1) replay chart at top, you need to see it to understand
2) yes, I am aware that both 6-4 and 6-5 ARE ACTUALLY MORE ACCURATE...
3) but that's only at face value
4) the break down all trends that make up the move...
5) has 6-6 WINNING CONVINCINGLY WITH NO RESERVATIONS
6) what does that mean?
7) so I read 10 different trend maps, what do they with agree with
8) ALL OF THEM AGREE IT SHOULD BE 6-6 (this draft you are reading)
1) replay chart at top, you need to see it to understand
2) yes, I am aware that both 6-4 and 6-5 ARE ACTUALLY MORE ACCURATE...
3) but that's only at face value
4) the break down all trends that make up the move...
5) has 6-6 WINNING CONVINCINGLY WITH NO RESERVATIONS
6) what does that mean?
7) so I read 10 different trend maps, what do they with agree with
8) ALL OF THEM AGREE IT SHOULD BE 6-6 (this draft you are reading)
Comment:
7:57 PM ET, What is so important about this draft?
1) the "curve of the price" matches price action the most
2) as opposed to 6-4 and 6-5, they have stronger hi-lights
3) but the underlying curves mis-match
4) and I've said over and over bout the 44-year trend line:
1) the "curve of the price" matches price action the most
2) as opposed to 6-4 and 6-5, they have stronger hi-lights
3) but the underlying curves mis-match
4) and I've said over and over bout the 44-year trend line:
Comment:
Comment:
5) continuing with chart above, it took price 3 tries to touch the 2011-2020 red line
6) and the third time was December at 2145 and the response was NOT KIND...
7) and it took 3 months to end up with our "2150" by 03/08 series
8) now we are faced with a more daunting challenge
9) 1981-2011 black trend line
10) THIS DRAFT CALLS FOR THAT BREAK ON THE FIRST TRY
11) AND TO DO IT BY TUESDAY 04/02, reaching 2400
12) that is what we are talking about here
13) AND
14) resolve ALL OF THIS ...
15) into a giant triangle into 6/12 FOMC (see chart at top)
16) so let that sit in your mind BEFORE SUNDAY OPENS
17) bc I have STRONG EVIDENCE NOW, that this the route!!!
18) dead, dead, dead serious!!
6) and the third time was December at 2145 and the response was NOT KIND...
7) and it took 3 months to end up with our "2150" by 03/08 series
8) now we are faced with a more daunting challenge
9) 1981-2011 black trend line
10) THIS DRAFT CALLS FOR THAT BREAK ON THE FIRST TRY
11) AND TO DO IT BY TUESDAY 04/02, reaching 2400
12) that is what we are talking about here
13) AND
14) resolve ALL OF THIS ...
15) into a giant triangle into 6/12 FOMC (see chart at top)
16) so let that sit in your mind BEFORE SUNDAY OPENS
17) bc I have STRONG EVIDENCE NOW, that this the route!!!
18) dead, dead, dead serious!!
Comment:
Friday, March 29th, 12:34 PM ET. THIS IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, OK? SO PAY ATTENTION!
1) you can NOT make serious money trading $5-$10 moves and you get that
2) but big moves DO NOT COME ALL THE TIME ...
3) and to have conviction in personal due diligence to say that I have it down to next week is SOMETHING SO HARD TO DO
4) like you don't even know the hours I put in to make this thing work
5) but before I explain what is coming next week, let me be clear about my personal conviction
6) the conviction I have is in my skill and understanding of price action
7) it is what I know that I know
8) but at end of the day, I am man of faith and family
9) and any skill and knowledge I have are gifts from the lord
10) gift that He meant to make the world a better place
11) and that the purpose of my writing these posts
12) is to an attempt to fulfill that His intentions
13) meanining that:
14) I am dead serious about this ok?
1) you can NOT make serious money trading $5-$10 moves and you get that
2) but big moves DO NOT COME ALL THE TIME ...
3) and to have conviction in personal due diligence to say that I have it down to next week is SOMETHING SO HARD TO DO
4) like you don't even know the hours I put in to make this thing work
5) but before I explain what is coming next week, let me be clear about my personal conviction
6) the conviction I have is in my skill and understanding of price action
7) it is what I know that I know
8) but at end of the day, I am man of faith and family
9) and any skill and knowledge I have are gifts from the lord
10) gift that He meant to make the world a better place
11) and that the purpose of my writing these posts
12) is to an attempt to fulfill that His intentions
13) meanining that:
14) I am dead serious about this ok?
Comment:
NOW ABOUT NEXT WEEK:
a) if you were here since the fall
b) I usually titled targets with dates
c) and I started to drop the dates after missing 2315, 2320, 2340, 2360 (in the last 3 weeks)
d) all of which I really thought should've happened by now
e) and because they have not happened and of my confidence of gold's bull market
f) I raised targets and set highs further out
g) so what was 23xx, 25xx, 27xx is now 2360-2600-3300-5400 all running to end of 2025
h) and part of the reason I did not believe gold can move faster and higher than that
i) is because of that 44- year trend line, since it took 3.5 years to break an 11-year trend line
j) so to be able to say that gold will do this on its first try, next week
k) requires AN EXTREMELY HIGH QUALITY OF EVIDENCE IN PRICE ACTION
l) EVIDENCE that in terms of mathematical, scientific, concrete evidence
m) CANNOT BE DENIED
n) in other words, the signal that I have, CANNOT GET BETTER THAN THIS
o) so to have a general understanding of the current picture
p) you need to read the recent notes I wrote last while we were still in DRAFT 6-9
a) if you were here since the fall
b) I usually titled targets with dates
c) and I started to drop the dates after missing 2315, 2320, 2340, 2360 (in the last 3 weeks)
d) all of which I really thought should've happened by now
e) and because they have not happened and of my confidence of gold's bull market
f) I raised targets and set highs further out
g) so what was 23xx, 25xx, 27xx is now 2360-2600-3300-5400 all running to end of 2025
h) and part of the reason I did not believe gold can move faster and higher than that
i) is because of that 44- year trend line, since it took 3.5 years to break an 11-year trend line
j) so to be able to say that gold will do this on its first try, next week
k) requires AN EXTREMELY HIGH QUALITY OF EVIDENCE IN PRICE ACTION
l) EVIDENCE that in terms of mathematical, scientific, concrete evidence
m) CANNOT BE DENIED
n) in other words, the signal that I have, CANNOT GET BETTER THAN THIS
o) so to have a general understanding of the current picture
p) you need to read the recent notes I wrote last while we were still in DRAFT 6-9
Comment:
PRICE ACTION:
1) so we need to hit 2248 and 2264
2) then we stall and may check to 2222
3) that is all of Sunday and Monday
4) then we move for 2300-2320 area and check to 2195
5) that is Monday evening to Tuesday evening
6) WED AND THURS IS A MOVE THAT I BELIEVE NO ONE ELSE CAN CALL
7) UNLESS THEY RESEARCH AND THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE SAME EVIDENCE
8) and that is a move that breaks 2400 past 2450
9) and the problem I have?
10) IS I AM NOT SURE THAT IS THE TOP
1) so we need to hit 2248 and 2264
2) then we stall and may check to 2222
3) that is all of Sunday and Monday
4) then we move for 2300-2320 area and check to 2195
5) that is Monday evening to Tuesday evening
6) WED AND THURS IS A MOVE THAT I BELIEVE NO ONE ELSE CAN CALL
7) UNLESS THEY RESEARCH AND THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE SAME EVIDENCE
8) and that is a move that breaks 2400 past 2450
9) and the problem I have?
10) IS I AM NOT SURE THAT IS THE TOP
Comment:
11) what I know is this, THERE ARE FOUR BIG HIGHS (maybe 5, but too early)
a) the March/April high
b) the July/August high
c) the January 2025 high
d) and the November 2025 high
12) and until yesterday, I did not believe that first high could be higher than 2360s
13) that is 44-year ceiling 2350 + 0.5% to 1.0%, so more than 2360 but less than 2370
14) because that was the evidence
15) now what I the math says is the March April high is a break of 2427
16) so that's why I said 2450, but should really be 2445
17) the next ceiling after 2445 is 2588
18) so the BASE CASE is 2445 next week
19) but that IS NOT THE TOP TO MARCH APRIL TOP
20 bc once you make it past the 44-year ceiling, the March/April to is 2588
a) the March/April high
b) the July/August high
c) the January 2025 high
d) and the November 2025 high
12) and until yesterday, I did not believe that first high could be higher than 2360s
13) that is 44-year ceiling 2350 + 0.5% to 1.0%, so more than 2360 but less than 2370
14) because that was the evidence
15) now what I the math says is the March April high is a break of 2427
16) so that's why I said 2450, but should really be 2445
17) the next ceiling after 2445 is 2588
18) so the BASE CASE is 2445 next week
19) but that IS NOT THE TOP TO MARCH APRIL TOP
20 bc once you make it past the 44-year ceiling, the March/April to is 2588
Comment:
3/29, 2:00 PM ET, but here is the important part:
1) if the March April high is 2588
2) then the four highs should be:
3) 2580, 2900, 3900, 6000
1) if the March April high is 2588
2) then the four highs should be:
3) 2580, 2900, 3900, 6000
Comment:
4) so before I post draft 7-1 Sunday afternoon
5) let that sink in, that if we nail 2580 in April
6) the final high should be 6000
5) let that sink in, that if we nail 2580 in April
6) the final high should be 6000
Comment:
3/29, 2:35 PM THE PROBLEM WITH GOOD FRIDAY AND SUNDAY OPEN:
1) why does it have to be Sunday open after a holiday?
2) normally, this area being so close to long term vol limits ...
3) would not gap up or if it does, gap up huge
4) price sometimes ACT LIKE IT NEEDS TO "COVER THE HOLIDAY"
5) if it does, and if I use IDC/ICE ticker spot gold ticker (which I do) and it does cover missing bars
6) it does this with flat bars
7) we may get all of Monday and Tuesday's price action
8) to fit by Monday's close
9) meaning Sunday Monday strategy is:
a) 2240s, 2264, then 2222 OR MAYBE JUST 2240, then 23xx, then 222
b) normally that would fit in 2 days
c) but it's Sunday after a holiday Friday that closed at new all time highs
d) based on that WE SHOULD EXPECT TO FIT ALL OF THAT to Monday by NY CLOSE
1) why does it have to be Sunday open after a holiday?
2) normally, this area being so close to long term vol limits ...
3) would not gap up or if it does, gap up huge
4) price sometimes ACT LIKE IT NEEDS TO "COVER THE HOLIDAY"
5) if it does, and if I use IDC/ICE ticker spot gold ticker (which I do) and it does cover missing bars
6) it does this with flat bars
7) we may get all of Monday and Tuesday's price action
8) to fit by Monday's close
9) meaning Sunday Monday strategy is:
a) 2240s, 2264, then 2222 OR MAYBE JUST 2240, then 23xx, then 222
b) normally that would fit in 2 days
c) but it's Sunday after a holiday Friday that closed at new all time highs
d) based on that WE SHOULD EXPECT TO FIT ALL OF THAT to Monday by NY CLOSE
Comment:
3/30, 2:04 PM ET, THIS POST HAS TOTALLY ENDED. HERE IS DRAFT 7-1:
Related Ideas
a) if it doesn't move to 68-ish first, but rise gradually from here
b) then the ceiling drops from 2400-ish to 2385
c) but we have enough now to say this move is outright favorite