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RECESSION PROABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES JAN - JUN 2024

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (FRED:T10Y2Y)  
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FRED:T10Y2Y   10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
Trend Analysis Fundamental Analysis Beyond Technical Analysis recession recessionindicator unemployment unemploymentrate yieldcurveinversion yeildcurve
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trendanalysis fundamental beyondta recession recessionindicator unemployment unemploymentrate yieldcurveinversion yeildcurve
10Y/2Y Yield Spread & Unemployment Rate

Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts)

Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level)

We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability.

Continuous jobless claims are reaching pre-recession warning levels in both time and volume. Meaning more and more people are becoming unemployed and remaining unemployed for longer. More info in links below.

snapshot

The average interest rate pause timeframe is closing in fast at June 2024 also(Contained in Charts below also).

snapshot

Its time to pay very close attention. The initial 6 months of this year

Stay safe out there

PUKA

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