A mayor crash is due soon, T10y02y spread just trigger my entryA mayor crash is due soon, T10y02y spread just trigger my entry point. I will be opening a short position on SPY. A huge short position
About 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
T10y2y suggesting a credit crunch I have been following the spread between these two yields for a while. It seems the trend is reversing and soon we could see it moving to the upside. Guppy emas confirming the close we are to that trend reversing. Unfortunately this conditions leads to pain to financial markets like in the past. And
RECESSION PROABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES JAN - JUN 202410Y/2Y Yield Spread & Unemployment Rate
Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts)
Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level)
We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability.
C
T10Y2Y 3M chart: Plotted US recessions since 1980US recessions since 1980 plotted on the T10Y2Y 3M chart.
Orange circles indicate value on the curve and the Stoch RSI value at the start of the first month and year of recession.
Red vertical bars are length of recessions.
Orange vertical lines on the Stoch RSI are the first month and year of the
Still not a good time to short.Reminder, when the yield curve turns positive, that's your warning to get out of stocks. AMEX:SPY , SP:SPX , $^ES
Past SPX action after the 10y-2y yield inversion unwoundI made a chart to show past SPX action after the 10y-2y yield inversion unwound.
Dec 2000: SPX was already in bear market and continued down.
May 2007: SPX topped, then made a double top, then collapsed.
Aug 2019 (atypical): SPX made a +10% move, then collapsed.
10/2 Inverted Yield StrategyThe inverted Yield is basically 6/6 as an indicator of an oncoming recession. At initial inversion the stock market sees initial growth as rates go higher. It isn't until on average 16-19 months that a recession occurs after initial inversion.
www.putnam.com
A study by Bloomberg tracked performan
Qualitative Fundamental Analysis of US Economy Oct.2023The most important factor for the economy is the behaviour of GDP. Several economic indicators are tracked to determine the overall economic situation and GDP growth.
A technical recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP.
If GDP grows less than 3% on average for the year,
Finally Figured out how to make the 10Y-2Y yeild curve inversionLink: www.tradingview.com
your welcome! #WAGMI
Yield curve prediction for 2024I feel we have 107 days to ride the bull market starting next week, if govt. shutdown is not happening. Lets ride the bull. :)
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