Of course, all ideas are my opinion alone. SHOP went a bit crazy last week but still rejected the same gap from the Winter 22' pullback. Looking at this head and shoulders on the daily, PA seemingly looking for a touch of the gap below around $64. May have to wait for the first week of April for the move to be underway. Keep on Watch, with a Bullish Market, $82+...
The idea is shown on this 120 minute. With the new sticky inflation data, the writing is on the wall. Likely the rate cut will be kicked down the time road. When is in consideration may be a rate hike in the meanwhile. Mortgage rates unchanged makes the banks suffer. Loan applications are down. Treasuries are being affected. So are tech stocks that have a...
GIS a consumer staples is set up long and is a good defensive play for recession or black swan events. The idea is on the chart. I am long since the first of the year. Adding for small dips on the daily or 180 minute chart. Food is about as basic as it gets. GIS is a market leader. TSN idea also. What about McDonalds?
The bigger the pattern the bigger the consolidation the more explosive the move how about this Chart Porn? Cup and handle I expect the log tgt not only to be made but surpassed given yesterdays event's in #baltimore Yup Massive east coast supply chain disruptions to be expected Ports jammed Aviation fuel disruptions Major economic ripples could transpire...
The market's recent rally (indices are up 25% since November!) feels frustrating. It doesn't seem to reflect the economic realities we're facing. Inflation is cooling, but it's still above targets. The labor market is strong, which might seem good, but it could be unsustainable with high interest rates. We're seeing layoffs, which contradicts the market's...
After Trading for some time ive gotten into all types of analysis, i personally found Elliot waves and Fibonacci retracements the most interesting, i look at long term and short term trends, and the other day i was looking at the S&P500 and DJI over large spans of time, and the more you trade using patterns and waves things just click when you see them, I...
On the FRED:UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession. Currently, FRED:UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever...
BLUE SKIES Would you have believed it If you were told a year ago. When every expert was predicting a recession. (which will come of course but when no one is expecting it ) So the conditions are set for a melt up I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next (grab some bitcoin miners!) ENJOY THE NEXT few months! #CNBC will trumpeting SOFT...
ECONOMICS:GBGDPQQ Great Britain officially entered in Recession due to Two Consecutive Negative Quarters. The British economy contracted 0.3% on quarter in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% decline in Q3, worse than market forecasts of a 0.1% fall, preliminary estimates showed. The economy entered recession amid a broad-based decline in output, namely in services...
ITS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! as i can see last time bitcoin did not breake 49k and had hard resistance and in Weekly Chart bitcoin is showing alot of bearish signs no matter what u put on chart is always showing for bearish my idea is that Bitcoin can retest again 45-49K zone if it dosnt manage to breakeout we will see again the lows which is gonna be good for buying...
Is the FED's caution on inflation justified? Absolutely! Here is why, secondary inflation spikes are very common when an economy does not enter a recession. The FED knows that. Hence their apprehension moving too fast to lower rates. I think it is a mistake for people to believe inflation is over, running around with a major hard-on to lower rates. On the other...
Just as in 2002-2003 when America invaded Iraq looking for WMDs (emphasis on the W). George W Bush (again, W) went to eliminate WMDs in Iraq. When said WMDs were not found, it was time to short the Iraq war. However there is a long and profitable path before us until our lies are exposed and we would be fools to not take advantage of this opportunity. We have the...
Macro Monday 31 U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index This Index is compiled from a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to assess the health of manufacturing activity in the state of Texas. It provides insight into factors such as production, employment, orders, and prices, offering a snapshot of economic conditions in the region. ...
10Y/2Y Yield Spread & Unemployment Rate Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts) Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level) We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability. Continuous jobless claims are reaching pre-recession warning levels...
Hello everybody, I have been keeping a close eye on our economy and indices and it looks like we are already in a recession. This will be one of the biggest recessions in history and will make 1929 and 2008 look like a correction. As job layoffs continue, we expect this to increase dramatically for the next couple of years. On a technical level we are witnessing a...
MACRO MONDAY 9 Initial Jobless Claims Historical Analysis and Important upcoming levels Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. "Initial claims" refers to the government report on the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for...
MACRO MONDAY 11 Continued Jobless Claims ECONOMICS:USCJC Continued Jobless Claims are the continued unemployment benefits claimed by workers who made their first “Initial claim” and remained unemployed in the weeks that followed. In other words, Initial Jobless Claims account for only the people that claimed their first week of unemployment benefit whilst...
Current economic, fundamental, and now technical data suggest that we are potentially nearing the start of the US Recession. Here are the technical factors that suggests the recession may have already begun⤵️ On the 1W chart, Price has rejected the $4.8k key resistance level on the 1D chart, the price is overbought and the RSI is indicating a bearish...