Continuous Jobless Claims Continues to Increase
U.S. Continuous Jobless Claims
Rep: 1,895 🚨 20k HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨
Exp: 1,875K
Prev: 1,865k (revised down from 1,871k)
20,000 higher continuous claims than expected. This is keeping the long term trend rising and remains one of thee most concerning charts out there.
Chart Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims increased from 1.302m to 1.895m (593k+).
This is significantly concerning trend and suggests that an increasing number of people that have become unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer.
Recession Watch
For the last 6 Recessions the 2.86m level was surpassed confirming or coinciding with recession initiation (see red dashed line). This is noted as the “Last 6 Recessions Threshold” on the chart. This is a level that was surpassed on confirmation of recession commencement (recessions are in red). The blue levels are pre-recession increases which are the warnings we are trying to interpret to get a lead.
The above chart above has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased the pre recession risk. Right now this chart demonstrates we are at max timeframe and close to max levels for an advance recession warning.
PUKA
Rep: 1,895 🚨 20k HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨
Exp: 1,875K
Prev: 1,865k (revised down from 1,871k)
20,000 higher continuous claims than expected. This is keeping the long term trend rising and remains one of thee most concerning charts out there.
Chart Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims increased from 1.302m to 1.895m (593k+).
This is significantly concerning trend and suggests that an increasing number of people that have become unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer.
Recession Watch
For the last 6 Recessions the 2.86m level was surpassed confirming or coinciding with recession initiation (see red dashed line). This is noted as the “Last 6 Recessions Threshold” on the chart. This is a level that was surpassed on confirmation of recession commencement (recessions are in red). The blue levels are pre-recession increases which are the warnings we are trying to interpret to get a lead.
The above chart above has min, avg and max levels on the bottom right to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased the pre recession risk. Right now this chart demonstrates we are at max timeframe and close to max levels for an advance recession warning.
PUKA
Comment:
U.S. Continuous Jobless Claims
Rep: 1,905k 🚨HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨
Exp: 1,874K
Prev: 1,860k (revised down from 1,889k)
Continuous claims came at 1,905k which is 45,000 higher than last weeks revised 1,860k.
Continuous claims have increased from lows of c.1,302k in Sept 2022 to c.1,925k in Nov 2023 (623k increase). Subsequently we stretched up to reach close to these highs at the beginning of Feb 2024 reaching up to c.1,894k. We then dropped to1,860k (last week) and now we are reaching up to 1,905k surpassing recent highs.
Chart Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims has increased from 1.302m to 1.905m (603k+).
Rep: 1,905k 🚨HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨
Exp: 1,874K
Prev: 1,860k (revised down from 1,889k)
Continuous claims came at 1,905k which is 45,000 higher than last weeks revised 1,860k.
Continuous claims have increased from lows of c.1,302k in Sept 2022 to c.1,925k in Nov 2023 (623k increase). Subsequently we stretched up to reach close to these highs at the beginning of Feb 2024 reaching up to c.1,894k. We then dropped to1,860k (last week) and now we are reaching up to 1,905k surpassing recent highs.
Chart Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims has increased from 1.302m to 1.905m (603k+).
Rep: 1,862k ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 1,900K
Prev: 1,889k (revised down from 1,895k)
Continuous claims came in 27,000 lower than last week (1,889k down to 1,862k). This is also 38,000 lower than what was expected this week (1,900k vs 1862k).
The long term trend in continuous claims does not match the recent short term decline. Continuous claims have increased from lows of c.1,302k in Sept 2022 to c.1,925k in Nov 2023 (623k increase). Subsequently we stretched up to reach close to these highs at the beginning of Feb 2024 reaching up to c.1,894k. Since then we have reduced down to 1,862k (a 32k reduction).
Chart Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims has increased from 1.302m to 1.862m (560k+).
This is significantly concerning trend and suggests that an increasing number of people that have become unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer.