GBPUSD Sell Key Levels Updated. A Detailed Technical Analysis.
Technical Overview
The GBP/USD pair is showing a bullish trend as I draw in the chart, but it could face a bearish backlash at the 1st resistance at 1.31400, a level that has resisted multiple swings in the past. If that happens, the price could fall to the 1st support at 1.30000. This level is a pullback support, meaning it could attract some buyers. Further down, the 2nd support at 1.2847 is another pullback support, indicating more possible buying interest. On the other hand, if the price rises, it could meet selling pressure at the 2nd resistance at 1.32800, a level that overlaps with previous resistances, which could trigger a price reversal.
Fundamental point of View
The US inflation rate was expected to drop from 4% to 3%, but no one thought it would happen so soon. Everyone was betting on a more gradual decline, maybe to 3.1%. This dampened the appetite for the US dollar. But the reality was even more surprising, as inflation fell to 3.0%. This convinced everyone that the Federal Reserve would only raise the interest rate one more time. Some even speculated that the Fed might pause its policy tightening. It’s possible that by the end of the year, the interest rate in the US will start to go down. And the dollar immediately lost value, even though it was already quite cheap. So, it’s time to think about a bounce or a minor correction. But there needs to be a good reason for that. Officially, this role was assigned to the UK industrial production report. UK’s industrial production kept shrinking as it dropped 2.3% in May. This was slightly better than the predicted 2.4%. But now investors are more worried about the interest rate gap. So, further shrinkage in industrial production only slowed down the dollar’s weakness a little bit. But this could lead to a corrective movement, maybe with some delay. So, a rebound seems more likely. But before that, the market will stay calm for a while.
The UK unemployment data did not bother the traders this week. Neither did the GDP and industrial production data yesterday. The US inflation report is surely more relevant, but the pair has been on the rise for three days, ignoring everything else. The GDP shrank by 0.1% in May, less than the expected -0.2-0.3%. The industrial production slipped by 0.6%, despite more hopeful forecasts. So, both reports were disappointing, but the pound kept climbing since the morning. Such a climb can only end when the bullish traders are happy and start taking profits.
The bulls are gaining momentum, but this could backfire on them. The faster the move, the sooner it will end and the harder the retracement. The highs and lows are still rising. According to my point of view a strong reversal signal is expected soon and a break below the last trend line will favor the US dollar.
Conclusion
My advice to traders is to trade GBPUSD only at the key levels and wait for the trend lines to break. Also keep an eye on the fundamentals as I expect GBP to drop in September. Another strategy to go short is to wait for the 50EMA and 200SMA crossover.
The GBP/USD pair is showing a bullish trend as I draw in the chart, but it could face a bearish backlash at the 1st resistance at 1.31400, a level that has resisted multiple swings in the past. If that happens, the price could fall to the 1st support at 1.30000. This level is a pullback support, meaning it could attract some buyers. Further down, the 2nd support at 1.2847 is another pullback support, indicating more possible buying interest. On the other hand, if the price rises, it could meet selling pressure at the 2nd resistance at 1.32800, a level that overlaps with previous resistances, which could trigger a price reversal.
Fundamental point of View
The US inflation rate was expected to drop from 4% to 3%, but no one thought it would happen so soon. Everyone was betting on a more gradual decline, maybe to 3.1%. This dampened the appetite for the US dollar. But the reality was even more surprising, as inflation fell to 3.0%. This convinced everyone that the Federal Reserve would only raise the interest rate one more time. Some even speculated that the Fed might pause its policy tightening. It’s possible that by the end of the year, the interest rate in the US will start to go down. And the dollar immediately lost value, even though it was already quite cheap. So, it’s time to think about a bounce or a minor correction. But there needs to be a good reason for that. Officially, this role was assigned to the UK industrial production report. UK’s industrial production kept shrinking as it dropped 2.3% in May. This was slightly better than the predicted 2.4%. But now investors are more worried about the interest rate gap. So, further shrinkage in industrial production only slowed down the dollar’s weakness a little bit. But this could lead to a corrective movement, maybe with some delay. So, a rebound seems more likely. But before that, the market will stay calm for a while.
The UK unemployment data did not bother the traders this week. Neither did the GDP and industrial production data yesterday. The US inflation report is surely more relevant, but the pair has been on the rise for three days, ignoring everything else. The GDP shrank by 0.1% in May, less than the expected -0.2-0.3%. The industrial production slipped by 0.6%, despite more hopeful forecasts. So, both reports were disappointing, but the pound kept climbing since the morning. Such a climb can only end when the bullish traders are happy and start taking profits.
The bulls are gaining momentum, but this could backfire on them. The faster the move, the sooner it will end and the harder the retracement. The highs and lows are still rising. According to my point of view a strong reversal signal is expected soon and a break below the last trend line will favor the US dollar.
Conclusion
My advice to traders is to trade GBPUSD only at the key levels and wait for the trend lines to break. Also keep an eye on the fundamentals as I expect GBP to drop in September. Another strategy to go short is to wait for the 50EMA and 200SMA crossover.
