Firstly, I want to congratulate those who follow my short sell signal of GBPUSD in my previous Idea.
Technical Analysis :
In a weekly Time Frame GBPNZD is approaching the Major Resistance area of 2.10500. A Massive rejection has seen many times in past. Whenever GBPNZD reached 2.10500 level a strong rejection occurred and trader hold GBPNZD sell trades for long. This time i am expecting the same scenario to happened again as history repeats itself in Forex also. Apart from that we will also see this from fundamental point of view.
I have mentioned some levels where rebound is expected and connected it with the Fibonacci retracement lvels. Both Support and Fibonacci levels coincides and showing the same values.
Fundamental Analysis
Today, the United Kingdom unveiled the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating that it remained steady at 8.7% compared to the previous month. Conversely, the core CPI witnessed a rise from 6.8% to 7.1%, deviating from traders' predictions of a 6.8% decrease. Nevertheless, similar to the headline inflation, there was no decline.
It is important to note that this report neither disappointed the bearish nor bullish sentiments; instead, it confirms the evident fact that inflation in Britain is gradually decelerating, despite the Bank of England's implementation of 12 interest rate hikes. Although there might be a thirteenth hike tomorrow, it is clear that inflation shows minimal response to the regulatory actions taken.
In light of this report, the British pound demonstrated mixed performance, initially experiencing a slight increase but subsequently declining. At the time of writing, the decline continues. The market is likely to lose confidence in the British pound since raising rates becomes futile if inflation fails to decrease.
Traders previously expected further tightening from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), but now the Bank of England cannot confidently assert a 2% rate increase, as doing so would only exacerbate the struggles of an already weakened economy. Rate hikes will soon come to an end, although there will be a 0.25% increase tomorrow.
COT Report Data
you can search COT Report Data. As i am not PRO members thats why i am unable to post links here.
According to the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, the sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders has shown a slight decrease in bullishness during the recent reporting week. Speculators have increased their long contracts by 11,320 units, while short contracts have risen by 17,069. Although the overall sentiment of major players remains mostly bullish, the number of long and short contracts now stands at approximately equal levels, with 76,000 and 69,000 contracts respectively.
The British pound demonstrates positive prospects for further growth, supported by current information that favors it over the NZD. However, I do not foresee a significant surge in the value of the pound sterling in the upcoming months. The outcomes of the Bank of England's meeting this week will provide further clarity on the pound's future outlook.
Conclusion : In connection with technical and Fundamental analysis that we have done above i expect GBP to fall in coming months as GBP is not offering any thing to traders also inflation is not slowing down as fast as expected. The market will likely to lose confidence in the British pound since raising rates becomes futile if inflation fails to decrease. Increasing Rates would only burden an already struggling economy. Rate hikes will soon come to an end and then Investors will open Massive Shorts on GBP.
Additional Comments
If we compare GBPJPY, GBPNZD, GBPAUD and the most favourite all time pair GBPUSD. we will find a common relation, GBP is reaching higher level on all these pairs and everyone will short GBP from these levels.
Massive Sell Levels:
GBPJPY : 194.5000
GBPNZD: 2.10500
GBPUSD: 1.30000
GBPAUD: 1.92500
Hopefully, this will benefit all traders.
Technical Analysis :
In a weekly Time Frame GBPNZD is approaching the Major Resistance area of 2.10500. A Massive rejection has seen many times in past. Whenever GBPNZD reached 2.10500 level a strong rejection occurred and trader hold GBPNZD sell trades for long. This time i am expecting the same scenario to happened again as history repeats itself in Forex also. Apart from that we will also see this from fundamental point of view.
I have mentioned some levels where rebound is expected and connected it with the Fibonacci retracement lvels. Both Support and Fibonacci levels coincides and showing the same values.
Fundamental Analysis
Today, the United Kingdom unveiled the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating that it remained steady at 8.7% compared to the previous month. Conversely, the core CPI witnessed a rise from 6.8% to 7.1%, deviating from traders' predictions of a 6.8% decrease. Nevertheless, similar to the headline inflation, there was no decline.
It is important to note that this report neither disappointed the bearish nor bullish sentiments; instead, it confirms the evident fact that inflation in Britain is gradually decelerating, despite the Bank of England's implementation of 12 interest rate hikes. Although there might be a thirteenth hike tomorrow, it is clear that inflation shows minimal response to the regulatory actions taken.
In light of this report, the British pound demonstrated mixed performance, initially experiencing a slight increase but subsequently declining. At the time of writing, the decline continues. The market is likely to lose confidence in the British pound since raising rates becomes futile if inflation fails to decrease.
Traders previously expected further tightening from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), but now the Bank of England cannot confidently assert a 2% rate increase, as doing so would only exacerbate the struggles of an already weakened economy. Rate hikes will soon come to an end, although there will be a 0.25% increase tomorrow.
COT Report Data
you can search COT Report Data. As i am not PRO members thats why i am unable to post links here.
According to the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, the sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders has shown a slight decrease in bullishness during the recent reporting week. Speculators have increased their long contracts by 11,320 units, while short contracts have risen by 17,069. Although the overall sentiment of major players remains mostly bullish, the number of long and short contracts now stands at approximately equal levels, with 76,000 and 69,000 contracts respectively.
The British pound demonstrates positive prospects for further growth, supported by current information that favors it over the NZD. However, I do not foresee a significant surge in the value of the pound sterling in the upcoming months. The outcomes of the Bank of England's meeting this week will provide further clarity on the pound's future outlook.
Conclusion : In connection with technical and Fundamental analysis that we have done above i expect GBP to fall in coming months as GBP is not offering any thing to traders also inflation is not slowing down as fast as expected. The market will likely to lose confidence in the British pound since raising rates becomes futile if inflation fails to decrease. Increasing Rates would only burden an already struggling economy. Rate hikes will soon come to an end and then Investors will open Massive Shorts on GBP.
Additional Comments
If we compare GBPJPY, GBPNZD, GBPAUD and the most favourite all time pair GBPUSD. we will find a common relation, GBP is reaching higher level on all these pairs and everyone will short GBP from these levels.
Massive Sell Levels:
GBPJPY : 194.5000
GBPNZD: 2.10500
GBPUSD: 1.30000
GBPAUD: 1.92500
Hopefully, this will benefit all traders.
