Captain_Walker

BTCUSD: North only - or 50% correction?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
'Everybody' want's BTC to go north only. Well, you know what I mean. People want to know why Bitcoin is flaking out. Some will say 'Anytime soon to $75,000!" There are several indicators on this chart. No predictions here. I don't do predictions. Only probabilities.

The chart shows some conflicting information. BTC is now coming into a zone of congestion and just nudged below the 100 MA. These two things suggest that 'everybody' who was holding their powder dry will be looking for a good deal. And sure they may make a few bob (as we say in England). There is no 'death cross' so 'everybody' is relaxed.

But there is a problem. The ATR on the daily has shown a sharp switch. This is not a good sign for a bullish market on this daily time frame. It indicates a probability for further movement south. But hold on - I didn't say price is going south 'now'!

Possible scenarios:
1. Price collapses dramatically now.
2. Price goes into consolidation and then collapses.
3. Price consolidates and moves north for while.
4. Price rockets to the moon right now.

The indicators are showing some interesting areas, that others may be watching. Caution: Indicators rule no market in the world. They give us a probability. So for every probability south there is a residual probability north e.g. if 62% north then 38% for the south (note this is just an example). And what does north mean? North doesn't mean to the moon. It means that price in any market may move a certain distance north which nobody can predict how far. Substitute 'south' for a bearish outlook. But I don’t imagine many people want to think about that one.

But note also that technical analysis does not rule markets. There a fundamental issues that rule too. But charts have a hard time mapping out fundamentals (unless it's some specific type of fundamental data).

What's spooking the Bitcoin market? The chatter in the blogosphere is about a ban on Bitcoin coming from the US, UK, China, Turkey and India (probably other countries as well). A few months ago I referred to when Gold was banned. I was laughed at. No problem. People simply said, "Nobody can ban crypto!! No chance! Impossible to enforce." Well it doesn't matter. The point is that those who made their killing ain't taking the chance that it could be banned.

The next issue is that there is word on the block of a wave of capital gains taxes to hit. Are people going to wait on Biden to finalise it? Some will, some won't. Those who made their money are probably cashing in and not waiting for bad news. I don't blame them.

The history of the Gold ban is one that people should dig deep into. I'm not saying that Bitcoin is gold . I'm saying that your leaders who invented and protected fiat currencies, are most unlikely to allow an independent store of value to challenge their world order.

I don't want Bitcoin to flake out. I love its rebelliousness. But that particular feature is what may make it intolerable to 'the authorities'. Four times (approx) the price of gold (at peak) is serious provocation.

Trend is more important than price. Some say the trend is their friend. Some don't believe that.

Oh my mate (not on Tradingview), held on at $51,000 instead of bailing out. Tonight it's around $48,000 🙄 . Why do people hold on? They 'know', or they 'hope', it's going back north. The 'enemies within' rule. This mate of mine is not a trader. She'll probably hold on some more and if it pushes back to 56,000 will say 'See what I mean - I was right!' That's some kind of confirmation bias or something. But folk like these don't have an exit strategy. I don't tell people what to do with their money or investments.

Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Comment: Errata: Gold was say 1600 for easy figures so 64,000 is forty times! Not 4 times!
Comment: Where we are now.
Comment: Ooops!
Comment: In case some did not see it, there was a better than 50% correction form the top.
FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus https://youtu.be/NjTdvALChwk ]

Comments

I think the anger and superiority of longs such as @ZXSPECCY76, here is enough to show the top is near. Great post. Watch out for the "fundamentals" lols. Nothing ever changes
+1 Reply
ZXSPECCY76 dRends35
@dRends35, Haha, I'll be sure to come back and remind you that you know nothing about this asset in a few months. Top is near...little bit vague don't you think? Not sure how any of my responses come across as angry either. You must live a very sheltered life. 🤣🌺
+1 Reply
dRends35 ZXSPECCY76
@ZXSPECCY76, There are a million like you. Don't look down.
Reply
ZXSPECCY76 dRends35
@dRends35, and a Million like you. I see all your ideas around Bitcoin are in the Bear market. Your bias is evident. A good trader can operate in both a bear market and a bull market and there is nothing to suggest the trend has changed currently.
+1 Reply
Captain_Walker ZXSPECCY76
@ZXSPECCY76, Except the sharp ATR switch clearly shown in my analysis.
Reply
ZXSPECCY76 Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, Making trades based off one indicator. How's that going for you?
+1 Reply
Captain_Walker ZXSPECCY76
@ZXSPECCY76, I'm not aware that I make trades based on one indicator and have never made such a claim.

You said ".. there is nothing to suggest the trend has changed". I responded to show an indicator that showed there was a trend change.
Reply
ZXSPECCY76 Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, A single indicator doesn't prove a trend change. In my view a trend change can only be confirmed when several indicators point to such a change. If it rains once during a prolonged period of hot sunny weather I don't then turn around and say...that's it now, summer's over.
Reply
Captain_Walker ZXSPECCY76
@ZXSPECCY76, You made a statement that was NOT about an indicator.

You said "...there is nothing to suggest the trend has changed currently." My statement was to show that there was 'something to suggest' - differently.

I'm not into a debate about 'a single indicator' defining a trend change.
Reply
ZXSPECCY76 Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, a single indicator doesn't define a trend change...I stand by my statement. In fact, nothing you stated in your entire text showed there was an increased probability of a trend change. Anyhoo, I'm bored of this now.
Reply