BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
It was 69 days of real hell, as Bitcoin crashed to a 61.8% Fib.

Some will recall (or not) that I had said the daily trend switch was important. I was not flavour of the last 2 months for sure. Was I a doomsday predictor? I was not! The chart said something - not me.

And now there is mounting excitement at the 61.8 Fib. Depending on which news you read, you will hear that some are calling 30,000 as a way point for a reversal, to 500,000! Some say, "It can't go any lower." How do they know? What people want is someone to predict the future for them.

This daily chart is saying something important: 'The trend south is not over'. A significant level for a trend change would be above 40 ,000. But getting above 40 ,000 is not 'the thing'. The speed at which price gets above 40 ,000 would be important. How? Price behaves like a physical object, it tends to carry momentum. I tend to look for accelerations and sustained lift off (or breakdown).

So - what's next? How would I know? I'm waiting on the market to tell me. At this particular point in time (on the daily time frame), the chart is saying 'probability is still for the south'. The news is saying 'long now!' Is the trend your friend or is the news your friend? The choice is yours.

Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
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