CAD weighted index, Daily on the left, we have the general bearish structure (impulse + flag, although its a flat top triangle, the general wick directions point for a massive bearish move)
Weekly on the right, shooting star closure
I do believe CAD is about to lose a very serious amount of strength, unless we close above the trendline +flat top triangle on a...
As shown, the current price action of this pair is testing a pivot point that has been prevalent throughout May and June. This coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level, derived from the swing high on the 22nd May. Due to this combination, if the support around the 81.00 holds, expect a short term reversal to around the 81.9 mark. Stop loss below 50% Fib....
After going short on this pair and banking around 60-70 pips recently I've noticed this has finally had 3 or 4 touches and broke my trendline, Looks to be retesting to go long now
Simple analysis
CADJPY
It looks like we will be pretty active with this pair over the coming weeks, we are first looking for a short, then if this plays out, we will be looking to buy back to the potential 61.8 Fib zone before shorting again to new lows.
Price started the descend earlier than expected. Now it is respecting the 0.786 zone on the 1hr chart it looks like it's heading upwards to finish forming the right shoulder. I expect it to keep rising to respect the trend line or the 4hr 0.618.
Price has reached the trend line and will either go long or break the trend and go short. From my analysis at the beginning of the week I expect price to carry on upwards. I'm just waiting for a bullish candle before entry.
The Canadian Dollar vs. the Japanese Yen. When a trader is unsure about trading the US Dollar, the CADJPY is often determined to be a suitable replacement. However, the historically higher yield of the Canadian dollar in the past has made the CADJPY more sensitive to market wide sentiment changes than the USDJPY. Also, Canada’s large amount of energy exports, most notable oil, causes it to be affected by crude oil prices.
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