Following weekly chart.
This week we're nearly getting a short signal, posting earlier but I am nearly sure about the signal.
TP1 3.26
TP2 3.01
SL 4.1 - Please wait for weekly close.
FOMC has raised interest rates for 9 times in a row. The next Fed interest rate decision will be publicly announced on Wednesday 5/3/23 at 2pm. The market consensus is expecting FOMC to raise interest rates for the 10th time in a row.
FOMC rate hikes:
3/16/22 +0.25% = 0.50%
5/4/22 +0.50% = 1.00%
6/15/22 +0.75% = 1.75%
7/27/22 +0.75% = 2.50%
9/21/22 +0.75% =...
Just like the 3 month bond yield, the 2 Year is also short term and mainly determined by the fed policy. 5.5 Maybe the next stop for the short 2 Year bond yields where the market will pause, consolidate and then breakout/reverse. The fed may also maintain the rates at around 5.5.
The 2 year yield saw one of its biggest divergences from the Fed Fund rate during the banking collapse.
Now that the banks have settled the 2 year yield is closing the distance on the Fed Fund rate.
Recapturing the daily 200 MA is bullish for the short term yields.
This move up in yields could be signaling inflation starting to uptick as the economy & labour...
Looking @ a few different #yields
(Not shown)Weekly 6month and 1Yr easier to notice BEAR FLAG & the pattern is close to being annulled.
Daily 2Yr looking good, breaking out of channel.
Hard to short dull market but seeing #bond yields climbing is worrisome for short term.
TVC:TNX 10Yr looks like 2Yr.
Banks reported profits, bank fears are gone, yields rising, lol.
Aside from my index futures indicators (which predicted a red day anyways), rising yields are causing the market to drop. The whole pump this week was about "disinflation", but yields were down on bank fears so now the reverse play, lol.
Gold and cryptos down along with everything besides...
Good times until late 2023.
We might form a huge double top on the SPX.
At the tops, before 2000 + 2008 crash, the US02Y/US10Y had started to fall.
Right now it's still holding flat. We probably have a couple months before markets crash. Bull run until then.
Thoughts on the yield curve ?
Shall we stabilize from here (uninvert?)
Shy is the two year rising away from the other treasuries in the face of a slowing economy?
The US02Y has been trading on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 4 weeks, closing above it on all occasions. This is a key time for (primarily) the stock market as the last time the US02Y broke and closed below its 1W MA50 (week of December 31 2018), a massive rally on stocks (which on this chart are portrayed by the S&P500 and the black trend-line) was...
Tue, 04/04 ~
2023 has printed a HH into LL @ gfib; a setup for reversal. Next wave should form LH. This should be btwn 4.361%-4.580%
Us govt reversed 2/3 of QT recently (hence recent downtrend) so could see weakness in 2yr over coming months
Rmb Bonds down, mkt up and vice versa
Having covered Gold & the Equity Index last week, this week we will look at how we could leverage both to trade on the move we’re watching!
Quite a happening market we first covered Gold two weeks ago.
Firstly, the interest rates market had a sizeable correction, with the 10Y-2Y yield now trading at close to -0.45% instead of the -1% range just 3 weeks ago....
Sun 03/27 ~
Got the rejection we were looking for off the “key” support and mkts pumped. Saw a HH into LL @ gfib; a setup for reversal. Next wave should form LH
Us govt reversed 2/3 of QT recently so could see weakness in 2yr over coming months
Rmb Bonds down, mkt up and vice versa
...Fed rate cuts should be dead ahead. This shows how the US02Y leads the Fed Funds Rate. Based upon this, should the Fed hike 25BPS this week - as it is (currently) expected to do - that hike should be the last unless the US02Y rises again.
