An inversion between the 2yr UST yield and the Federal Funds effective rate normally does not exceed -1%. When that happens, it's an indication the bond market is not getting the reaction from the Fed that it "expects" (or maybe it is a "want"). Inversions of this degree have normally been unkind to the equity market, but that is clearly not the case here in...
Please note that these are my premature ideas. I don't claim any certain things. I just evaluating the Technical Charts, which are important indicators to me for unknown upcoming global events. I added my comments on the charts with text boxes. I am sure that you can also understand what is going on.
TVC:US02Y 2Y Yields heading lower. Sometime over the next 12-18ish months, I believe we'll see 2Y yields fall to 200-275 bps. Headline inflation numbers are lower and dropping. The Fed has effectively pulled a rabbit out of a hat in the act of raising interest rates by ~500+ bps, while avoiding the obliteration of the economy. (thus far) If the economy...
Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar. Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar. Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar. Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar. Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar.
Continuation of 2 year dictating (foreshadowing) the business cycle with housing prices added for reference. MACD doing the heavy lifting.
US10YR and USD vs USDPLN. Just a chart to see how the USDPLN compares to the US treasuries
Offering symmetry with my bonds analysis, I am seeing a bearish '22 model with a clear area that looks like an original consolidation. I am also bearish on on all assets that directly correlate with yields.
This video tutorial, we will learn the difference between: • Interest rates and yield • Healthy yield curve and an inverted one and • The risks and opportunities with a prolong inverted yield curve (since March 2022) Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) =...
As many of you might know we apparently have reached the peak of rates ... by rate markets we are going to hv next time a cut! Trend down
Bulls still have a wave count supporting the final spiky move up in 2 year yield to 5.50%
Up coming Federal Reserve meeting, there's still underlying inflation in the USA but the amount of interest on debt + Japan buying US debt while their currency is almost completely free falling. Would be one of the worst fiscal policy disasters since 2009. Looking at Japan's society they're completely clueless of how close they are to blowing up.
GOOD MORNING! These will be DAILY charts but what we really need to see is how the week will close for all of these (this was thread on X) TVC:DXY & TVC:TNX both look like they're running out of steam. The #Dollar does seem to be fighting this break. 30YR Treasury, read above statement. 1YR stopped going up long ago. Are 2 Yr #Yields finally breaking?
The market looks very exposed as one of the big 7 tech stocks performed poorly this earnings season. Also, interest rates look like they may have peaked however, history shows when the short-term rates fall vs long-term rates (or when rates are cut) there is a correction in the stock market.
Watch this curve because the market always knows, and the market isn't as free as many think. Gives us a sign when the true risk off kicks in. Might be due for a short relief soon, and then it starts. A potential bounce area is market as white, might not match and steepen now, but the breadth indicates that more likely than not we will get it in a matter of weeks...
2 Year Yield will be the first to go down when the Fed starts cutting rates.
The US Treasury bond 2 year yield is at a level last seen in May 2006. In July 2022 the yield broke out of what was a long term down trend since 1989. Now we can see what happens next. Will the rates breakout above this level? If they do then that could indicate a real trend shift.
Divergence implies we have seen highs in rates. RSI making lower highs as yields move up. Looking for a bull steepener as economy enters recession or slows. Applicable to traders in bonds. The short rate is most affected by Fed policy. A weakening in 2 year yields May presage Fed cuts.
#1-This Is The US02Y Your Broker Doesnt Want You To Know About Trading these bonds can be a challenge if you dont know technical analysis. #2-What Everybody Ought To Know About The US Government Bonds 2 Year Yield Business Getting a yeild on your trade is the most important factor especailly when it comes to ttrading for profit. #3-These Must Be Some Of...