High U.S. Yields vs. Alternative stocks such as NASDAQ:TSLA #Tesla OMXCOP:VWS #Vestas OMXCOP:ORSTED #Ørsted OMXSTO:PCELL #Powercell.
Thesis is yields down, alternatives up.
Discussing the sell off in semis today.
Potential reversal in Nat gas
Bitcoin & crypto selloff.
FOMC tomorrow: No rate cut.
Will Powell come out hawkish tomorrow? its looking likely he will based off of the BOJ rate hike. Oil surging doesn't help the dovish case.
Commodities breaking out doesn't help the inflation fight.
How long do we have before the next crash?
How many months until we've reached the market top? Hopefully not yet!
My estimate is a top in June 2024, when the FED starts cutting rates.
In short term, If US02Y spikes then BTC nukes a bit. So expecting a nuke by tomorrow or anytime soon.
BTC to 35K is still in play with previous cycles retracements to 0.318.
So when we examine this relationship closely its clear that SPX does not nessisarily follow the dictates of the inverted yield curve (2y / 10y). However, the general adherence to trends has clearly diverged in a big way. We can look back to January of 2023 and see a similar divergence where SPX finaly reacted with a violent move down into March of 2023. I think we...
The parallels to the economic downturn of 2007/08 are evident!
Monitoring the 2-year Treasury yields will help us anticipate the onset of a recession.
A significant drop in yields is imminent.
Downward curving spiral channel. Equities crash when we hit the top of the resistance line. Likely stock market crash Q1/Q2 2023 given rate of increase. Short-term consolidation period expected Q2/Q3 '21 before final rip. GG
Observing yields to see if we start breaking above swing highs. We have closed above daily highs & imbalances. No body closure market structure shift just yet.
An inversion between the 2yr UST yield and the Federal Funds effective rate normally does not exceed -1%. When that happens, it's an indication the bond market is not getting the reaction from the Fed that it "expects" (or maybe it is a "want"). Inversions of this degree have normally been unkind to the equity market, but that is clearly not the case here in...
Please note that these are my premature ideas. I don't claim any certain things.
I just evaluating the Technical Charts, which are important indicators to me for unknown upcoming global events.
I added my comments on the charts with text boxes. I am sure that you can also understand what is going on.
