On the above 2-week chart the 2 year bond yield has increased an astonishing 4500% in a little over 2 years, perhaps you’ve noticed?. The chart is now indicating rising yields are a thing of the past, at least until 2026. From here on it is pauses and cuts until the real economy shows signs of recovery. This will likely be a difficult 2 years ahead for many.
The...
The recent dot plot is quite interesting. It has 2 important notes:
a) no recession
b) you got to wait longer if you are looking for cuts.
This caused yield to move UP - to price in a longer Fed pause.
And I think both short and long yield to continue to be HIGH.
In a situation with high DEBT load, a higher rate environment is trouble.
$ FX and US yield...
The final exhaustive push higher in a subwave -c- of wave -v- up quite often comes as a strong rally resembling the heart of the rally in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up.
When investors invest in short-term bonds
it means they expect inflation
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to arrive inside the current economy
this means higher food prices
and tough economic living conditions
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for the poor and middle-class
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inside this video, you will see the yield curve
and where to buy Bitcoin to save you
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from inflation
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Disclaimer:
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I am not a financial...
2 year yield keeps pushing to the target at 5.50%
We are in the final wave v up. Upon completion of that five wave up rally we should get a large corrective a-b-c pullback to re-test the low made by the wave -iv- down
Sharing how Fib extension can catch tops and bottoms / support and resistance.
Here we have the 2yr bond yield with the 3 pivot points (marked by blue price notes) for the fib extension at Mar 24 low, Mar 31 high and Apr 05 low.
Last nights .5-ish move was suppressed by the Fib 3 boundary.
From an elliott wave perspective, there are so many 1-2 waves from the...
The yield market is going absolutely bonkers tonight in the futures.
What is the bond market telling us?
likely inflation is entrenched. If the 2 year yield closes at or above the Fed Fund Rate before we hear from Powell expect the fed to do a surprise rate hike or remain extremely hawkish.
This will no be good for stocks if this is the case.
-Bonds offset volatility for equity prices
-Even though Bonds Are An Inflation Risk
-Bonds Are Also At Risk Of Interest Rate
TVC:US30Y are budget friendly even though they offer low returns
To learn more about the financial markets watch this video
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Lubosi...
Top complete a five wave up structure of the rally off the March'23 low it should stretch higher to 5.50%. Upon completion of the five wave up structure yield should drop back down to 4.80%-4.70%
Bonds yields have been moving up at a fast pace recently - the 2 year bond yield moved between may and now nearly a full percentage point. Currently at the levels seen around 2008 right before the markets crashed. With real rates on the 3 Month bill actually reaching the exact rate before 08 crisis.
One thing I noticed is that the longer end of the curve, i.e...
Last week the US dollar index (DXY) closed at a 15-month low and beneath 100 for the first time since April 2022. Yet subsequent price action has seen a lack of conviction form bears, allowing prices to form a double bottom just above the March 2022 high and close with a Spinning Top doji yesterday.
Given US yields are showing signs of stability (and hinting at...
