CastAwayTrader

CastAwayTrader

This Jan'24 rally could be counted as a subwave -b- up to be followed by a strong drop in a subwave -c- down under the Running Flat -a-b-c- down corrective structre

CastAwayTrader

Bulls can keep pushing S&P higher in a subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) up targeting the next resistance at 5,209. However, I prefer a more complex and tricky Scenario 2 that first shakes off weak hands and only then starts a rally to 5,200 see the Scenario II:

CastAwayTrader

This push higher off the Oct'23 low lacked a micro i up, ii down at the start and therefore I think that most likely its a false start of the accelerated part of the subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) up. Then we should be dealing with the subwave -b- up to be followed by a subwave -c- down (unfolding very bullish the Running Flat corrective a-b-c down structure) I...

CastAwayTrader

Bitcoin can make one more push from mid Jan'24 into the early-mid Feb to 46,500 - 47,000. Then I would expect a 2-month long a-b-c down flat consolidation followed by a huge rally in a subwave C of wave 3 up. The subwave C of wave 3 up will be able to surge up to 82,200 in 2024.

CastAwayTrader

Bulls still have a wave count supporting the final spiky move up in 2 year yield to 5.50%

CastAwayTrader

We have a setup for another spiky move up in 2 year yield to a new high of the year 2023. The target for the subwave -c- of wave -iii- up = 5.365%

CastAwayTrader

The final exhaustive push higher in a subwave -c- of wave -v- up quite often comes as a strong rally resembling the heart of the rally in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up.

CastAwayTrader

2 year yield keeps pushing to the target at 5.50% We are in the final wave v up. Upon completion of that five wave up rally we should get a large corrective a-b-c pullback to re-test the low made by the wave -iv- down

CastAwayTrader

Top complete a five wave up structure of the rally off the March'23 low it should stretch higher to 5.50%. Upon completion of the five wave up structure yield should drop back down to 4.80%-4.70%

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META: From Daily Extreme Oversold to the Monthly Extreme Overbought signal

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This is a textbook short setup, break under Monthly Support followed by a bounce back to the broken-support-turned-resistance. As soon as bulls failed to reclaim the broken support that became a trigger that attracted new shorts. The Rule of thumb is: ⚠️ when bears manage to break a support and then bulls attempted to reclaim it but fail, bears get reasons to...

CastAwayTrader

Note how the Monthly support calculated and drawn by the Month Opening Range indicator nailed the bottom of the post FOMC-decline You can find the indicator here: https:// /

CastAwayTrader

Yesterday NQ tagged the Red Supply zone and completed a corrective wave iv down. This morning we are getting the first leg down of wave v down

CastAwayTrader

10 year notes broke out of the bullish wedge as expected. Bulls have a setup for a large five wave up rally in T-notes (meaning decline in 10 year yield)

CastAwayTrader

We have got a clean bullish setup, a classic five waves up followed by a three wave down decline making a higher low. A very attractive setup for a rally in wave (c) up

CastAwayTrader

SPY, QQQ, IWM printed buying exhaustion signals I expect to get a pullback next week

CastAwayTrader

When four cycles bottom and turn up simultaneously traders have attractive entry points because new up cycles will be pushing price up strongly

CastAwayTrader

The Indicator detects points where multiple cycles top and bottom. This morning four cycles made bottoms and simultaneously turned up. Their combined power is whet produced such a strong rally today