The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): The key development today is the formation of the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 9 months (since July 10 2023). This is a huge technical buy signal on its own and becomes even more so since...
US Government Bonds 10YR Yield X Right prices with more accuracy: 4.618% 4.714% 4.804% 4.944% New Support = 5.075$ Distribution = $5.263 Follow by 5.458% Market will take a small beak however expect the following prices as support confirmed during 2023 & 2022. 6.095% 6.350% 6.552%
Good Morning Everyone We finally see what we were expecting. That was the expectation for #Yields to pump higher. There was a NORMALIZATION of the yield curve taking place. However, the 2Yr has moved faster than 10Yr today. IF the #FederalReserve drops rates causing the normalization of the curve it could cause the end of this bull run. The best scenario would...
Some weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from...
What would cause rates to move higher? Inflation 2.0? According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates. If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future. This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a...
This is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential...
Bond Traders are positioning to the narrative of higher rates for longer from the Fed. 10 year bond yields continue to trend 📈 higher. Will be break the high of the year or pull back?
lets see how it goes. double top perhaps? 10Y TREASURY PREDICTION
Jobs data posted during the previous week surprised the markets in a negative way. It is sort of a paradox, considering that usually strong job market is good for the economy of any country. However, at the current situation, this strong jobs market sends a signal of a potential increase in inflation figures, which might impact the Fed's decision to cut interest...
Traders, as we navigate through the second and third quarters, understanding the potential movements of the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y becomes increasingly crucial. Join me as we analyze the factors shaping the bond market and anticipate the trajectory of the 10-year yield in the coming months. I'm excited to share a comprehensive outlook, encompassing a...
US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle Ascending triangle detected on US10Y The exponential moving averages remain possible targets Monitor Ichimoku levels The ROC ( Rate of Change) is in a positif territory. Bonds can rise to a double top Stay careful Good trades to all
Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 6
From the ending of 2023, Yields have been trickling to the upside, regaining the losses made throughout the last quarter of Q4. With this weeks candle attacking buyside liquidity with a strong bullish closure, manipulation to the downside, ideally respecting the short term lows @ 4.183%. 4.532% lowest displacement of the order block is in the cards. My...
Loosening of financial conditions in October has fucked over the world. Reacceleration in goods inflation is all but certain. As a result, the FED has let the train leave the station and it is going to require the bond market to do the tightening for it. Reminiscent of 70's, a yield of 6.5% on the 30y will likely be sufficient to quell inflation.
US Government Bond 10 YR Yield X Right Prices for April, 2024: 4.420% 4.428% 4.439% 4.457% 4.466% 4.467% 4.487% 4.493% 4.505%
What a difference 11 hours makes. The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening. 10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent. This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT. TVC:TNX
Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do. The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though. 10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone. 30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment. #FederalReserve TVC:TNX
Copper miners smelling more yield curve un-inversion... #copper #silver #gold #uranium #crudeoil