The US treasury market is becoming agitated at the latest Fed stance that rates may most likely remain unchanged through the 2Q2024 and 3Q2024 which has put upward pressure on the US treasury yields. US 10-year yields broke back above 4.50% last week and a continued sell-off will see yields spike back to 5.00% for as long as the current Fed narrative holds it...
Last weeks bullish projection played out as expected with the monthly OB and liquidity void being met by the end of this weeks trading.
Trend is your friend and although it's not guaranteed we will continue to trend upwards, there's a higher probability that US10Y does rather than not on a weekly timeframe. This does not mean this weeks price action will reprice...
US short term funding requirements (33% of existing debt to mature next year) + a clean unbroken trend seems to head the 10 yr yield to 5.2%. This view doesn't constitute investment advice.
It's reasonably well appreciated that the biggest component of the dollar index DXY is the euro. Therefore when trying toanalyse the future direction of the Dollar one needs to consider what is happening to the spread between yields in the two main economic areas (US and Germany as a proxy). If we look at US10Y-DE10Y historically we can see, as might be expected,...
This is my perspective on the forces that might apply on the UK 10Y Gilt. It can climb along the red rectangles to fall down to the big green or if the first red rejects it or the bottom arc attracts it, we might see support in that area. The vertical green is a special one where unusual or special circumstances and price action might occur, either higher...
Another TLT play is about to start. The 20 year bond yields are rejecting off the channels resistance and will likely move back down to the 200 mda and maybe the bottom of the 4 months upward channel. TLT will respond inversely to this. I have been playing TMV and TMF back and forth since November. I'm up 70% over that time. I'll will likely buy into TMF...
Historically when Bonds and US Dollar DXY are down, then Commodities go up. Their inverse correlation is currently broken.
Just something to monitor and warning that something is out of order which should be ringing alarm bells
US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield X Right Prices for year 2024.
4.729%
4.892%
4.862%
4.954%
April Distribution price: 5.031%, 5.061%
It may also arrive at 5.212%
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After the Distribution price we will expect a drop to, 4.622% range.
Then expecting the prices for Advance stage:
5.344%
5.471%
5.700%
We may have mid Retest...
The 10-year yield is in a huge symmetrical triangle.
Break out of it would trigger a massive move in rates. Rates are moving up due to the very hot inflation report.
Let's see if will it be rejected or if this will be the end of the bull market for now!
Short term bonds are still trading below the bank fiasco crisis.
1 & 2YR Yields.
However.......
Long term #yield is higher than it was during the bank fiasco.
10 & 30 YR #Yield.
Normalization of the curve is still a ways off.
The US30Y bond is a type of loan that the United States government takes from investors. It's called a "30-year bond" because it takes 30 years for the government to pay back the loan in full. When you buy a US30Y bond, you're essentially lending money to the government, and in return, they promise to pay you back the amount you lent, plus interest, over the...
Heavy selling observed across the S&P500: Financials & Real Estate hit hard.
S&P500 hitting the 50 day MA...technical daily support.
Some breakout sectors are seeing there first pullback in a bullish trend.
The sectors that have had breakouts will likely see dip buyers.
Health Care & Utilities are into some interesting support levels. This is where bulls...
Jobs data were the ones that moved the markets two weeks ago, while the previous week was marked with inflation data. The US inflation is quite persistent and moved higher to 3.5% in March, from 3.4% that the market was expecting. The overall market sentiment is that the Fed will stay reluctant to decrease interest rates during the course of this year, since the...
