The SPY, QQQ , IWM all hitting resistance. Gold looking a bit vulnerable for a small pullback. Bitcoin looking extended & first negatives divergence.
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10Y getting dumped off combination FOMC decision, US economic data + US Treasuries update triggering institutional short covering. Bond & equities market squeezed higher, in-line with seasonality. Possible bearish H&S in development on lower timeframe, pending pattern confirmation.
In addition to the Bearish 5-0 I pointed out before on a previous chart, the ZARJPY has also formed a Potential Bearish Head and Shoulders that is visible on timeframes even as high as the monthly with Bearish Divergence on the MACD and RSI. If The Carry Trade truly is to be dissolved, the ZARJPY should be among the currency pairs that are most severely affected,...
We have some Bearish Divergence on the ZARJPY, but the main reason I entered this trade was to speculate against the JPY Carry Trade and front-run the potential flight we may get back to the Yen if Japanese Yields were suddenly to go up or even become uncapped during the BoJ meeting tonight. I could have shorted EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, or USDJPY instead, but I...
US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's...
The market almost closed positives today in the back of tech stocks rallying. A massive gap down was bought up off the lows today. Banks continuing's to sell off despite yields and the dollar cooling off today.
Inverse chart of US10Y Yield to show changes in Bond prices. Overlayed with the following: Fed Funds Rate US Treasury Deposits to Federal Reserve Banks Increase/Decrease Rate of change to Fed Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Total in separate pane below The USCBBS Percentage Change shows the money raining down :-D It's clear to see the relationship between the...
On the afternoon of October 3rd, 2023 something unprecedented happened in the U.S. Treasury market. For the first time ever, bear steepening caused the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to uninvert. Bear steepening refers to a scenario in which long-duration bond yields rise faster than short-duration bond yields, as bond yields...
Say you’re bearish but find yourself confused by the market. You want to partake in the action if things go south, but not 100% certain, what could you do? First, you could build some conviction by identifying potential reasons why you think the market could dip lower… Then, devise a ‘tail hedge’ to profit if things indeed go south. Let’s break down these two...
The TNote (US 10 year yield) has entered its target area for this up movement from the bottom. Resistance area is between 4.65% to 5%. We are expecting a pullback below 4% for the next months. Then the uptrend should resume towards 7%, possibly higher. A break above 5% would invalidate this view.
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 10/03 Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin...
Last night, the DXY went below the PCZ of the Bullish Alt-Bat and bottomed out at the Demand Line of the channel it has been trading within, and at the same time, it formed a Bullish Butterfly with double PPO confirmation. Now it is back above the Moving Averages and on the rise. Meanwhile, the yields have seemingly bottomed out at the 200 SMA at the PCZ of a...
We have an Intraday Bearish Bat on the Euro with Bearish PPO Confirmation and MACD Bearish Divergence. Earlier today, the Euro Doubled Bottomed at $1.05 and has since been on the rise, but so far it has only managed to come back up towards the moving averages and move up to complete a Bearish Bat. Now it is showing multiple signs of coming back down, and if it...
The DXY and the 30 Year Yield have been on the decline for most of the day but are now showing signs of reversing back up at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat and a Bullish Shark in the form of MACD Bullish Divergence and PPO Confirmation, respectively. When these two start to rise again it is very likely that the QQQ start to continue down as it is trading at the PCZ of...
Yields Surging on the long end. Hitting resistance. Will this level hold and give the equity markets a breather to bounce? If this continues to surge you will see a massive selloff in equities at some point as the bond market is pricing in entrenched inflation.
The Dollar is surging and gaining strength like it did in 2021/2022 when inflation narrative dominated the market. Are we witnessing inflation resurgence. This Multi crossover of the daily moving averages suggests a very strong trend is forming, but this rise in price action often yields a pullback before the next leg higher. Think about why this is...
The S&P500 was shaky today after some deep selling started to occur. The market was breaking down on surging yields and dollar. The SPY pierced and almost lost support but managed to find its footing late in the session & had a phenomenal rally which definitely consisted of Short covering based on the volume. Let's see if this local low / bottoming tail will...
With the action-packed week of global central bank meetings for September now behind us, we believe it's an appropriate time to review where we stand. The current phase, in our view, can be aptly summarized by the words of Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist: a ‘Table Mountain’ scenario rather than a ‘Matterhorn.’ Recent announcements have positioned...