We have our first indication of a top in bond yields with price overlapping and losing it's impulsivity to the upside. However, a top is not confirmed until yields breach 3.40% which is our wave 4 of one lesser degree. To do so should confirm the beginning of our wave 2 decline into the target box, and over time.
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2%...
TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation...
Economic Policy needs to remain restrictive or should tighten further, until clear signs of easing inflationary conditions are available. Technicals Favor: Strong yearly candle Favor: Strong M BiMS Favor: M BiMS after ATL Favor: Multiple BSL Levels higher Currently at 10Y High Expectation Downside Retracement Targets (careful Short Term) 1 - 2.057% (Y SIBI...
Are we seeing a divergence in the market? Interest rates & yields have cooled off significantly in recent trading sessions thus providing the perfect tailwinds for tch to continue higher. Todays price action saw Tech make a new nominal high as yields were falling but ended up reversing lower. The fact that tech appears to be selling off under falling yields...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis for last week of November. TBC further details/write-up via ideas section, cheers.
- US 10 Years Government Bonds(Yield) TVC:US10Y experienced a pull back in the fourth week of August, after having rallied previously for five (5) consecutive Weeks, printing only green *W candlesticks. The Weekly pullback retraced to a Weekly price level of 4.09% for $U10Y (key level marked on dashed green line) We can clearly see TVC:DXY being dragged...
In 2022, the stock market took a hit and the US Dollar gained strength due to higher yields in the US. Toward the end of that year, as yields eased off, the US Dollar lost some of its power, and this coincided with a rebound in stock market performance. Now, as yields are climbing once again, the US Dollar is regaining strength, but it seems like stocks are...
There is a Bearish Bat with Bearish Divergence on the TLT, which could perhaps be signaling that the 20-year Bond Auction is going to demand higher yield than the current level.
Quick update on some calls that we made not long ago. Keep in mind that many were bullish on yields at the time. We stated that TVC:DXY was topping. We also believed that #yields topped, especially longer term. What has happened since then? US #dollar cratering. TVC:TNX , 10 Yr, 2YR & shorter frames are also rolling over. Last night we stated that #stocks...
Gold is once again in the spotlight, and here’s why! Economic Cycles, PMI & Gold The US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator often used to identify turns in the economic cycle. A below 50 PMI print indicates contraction in the US manufacturing cycle, while a print above 50 suggests expansion. Generally speaking, expanding manufacturing...
TVC:US10Y intraday mapping/analysis. US yields dip while bonds & stocks rip. US10Y in clear downtrend with potential bearish H&S pattern developing, TBC. H&S development would correlate with bonds/stocks pullback before further bullish momentum into EOY. Left shoulder, head & neckline outlined. Right shoulder parameters: Rally above ascending 1st...
Markets have had an extraordinary move to the upside with 8 days of consecutive gains and 9 days in the QQQ. Semiconductors often lead the market and have now hit major resistance. Microsoft has almost completed its bullish move.
The SPY, QQQ , IWM all hitting resistance. Gold looking a bit vulnerable for a small pullback. Bitcoin looking extended & first negatives divergence.
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10Y getting dumped off combination FOMC decision, US economic data + US Treasuries update triggering institutional short covering. Bond & equities market squeezed higher, in-line with seasonality. Possible bearish H&S in development on lower timeframe, pending pattern confirmation.
In addition to the Bearish 5-0 I pointed out before on a previous chart, the ZARJPY has also formed a Potential Bearish Head and Shoulders that is visible on timeframes even as high as the monthly with Bearish Divergence on the MACD and RSI. If The Carry Trade truly is to be dissolved, the ZARJPY should be among the currency pairs that are most severely affected,...
We have some Bearish Divergence on the ZARJPY, but the main reason I entered this trade was to speculate against the JPY Carry Trade and front-run the potential flight we may get back to the Yen if Japanese Yields were suddenly to go up or even become uncapped during the BoJ meeting tonight. I could have shorted EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, or USDJPY instead, but I...
US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's...