Current state of the short and long term #Yield. The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher. 10Yr vs 30Yr The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but....... The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still...
The 30-Year Bond seems to have found support at the 89 EMA aligning with a trend line, it seems that demand for this maturity will pick up soon which would result in the 30-year Yield dropping to around 3.5%. I do however think this drop in yields will be temporary, but the move down in 30 year yields and the move up in the 30-Year Bond Futures will likely be...
Good Morning Update Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields. Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels. The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels. The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels. Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels? CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD ...
There is a Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders with a Piercing Line on the potential Right Shoulder visible on the weekly timeframe above the 800-week EMA who's measured move would take it all the way up to the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension if the pattern plays out. The move up in SLV should be supported by the rising of the TLT and Falling of Yields (if that trend...
Due to the apparent formation of a Bullish Cypher on the Daily, combined with the Bullish Push as confirmation on the RSI, and the strong push push in price action above the 200-day SMA, I will be raising my profit target for the EURUSD to the 100% retrace up at $1.114 as the 100% retrace would be the standard target for a Cypher and the TLT has outperformed which...
The TLT looks like it's trying to form a Double Bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement, it is also Bullishly Diverging at this level, if it holds up I think it could go up to as high as $96 near the 200-period Simple Moving Average which would also fill the gap. From there I'd think it could continue back down. I will be selling weekly puts around the lower 90...
MSFT saw a nasty reversal today. Closing down more than the Nasdaq. All indices close negative = broad market selloff. Powell comes out hawkish & sends market lower. All eyes on Apple tomorrow!
Last week I put out this TLT trade setup that showcased a Falling Wedge with Bullish Divergence at the 0.382 retrace which targeted an upside move in the TLT that would recover at least 50% of the high: In the time since this setup first formed the TLT has nearly reached that minimum target. In addition to the TLT, I expected the EURUSD to follow a similar path,...
Watching the Yield Curve inversion closely...10's - 2's is narrowing. Weekly Reversal in the Semiconductors. Oil massive breakout! Dollar next? Tesla losing Mag 7 status...its now only 10th largest company.
EURUSD is trading within a Falling Wedge with MACD Bullish Divergence at the 800-period EMA. All of this aligns with the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Gartley that has developed on the 1-Hour timeframe. If this support zone holds I think EURUSD will attempt a Bullish breakout that will target the 50-61.8% retraces above which may align with short term upside I'm expecting...
We saw #yield, US #Dollar, & #oil looking decent & trading with some strength. #stocks are a tad weak but so is $VIX. Want to show this chart again. CBOE:VIX can trade in the ORANGE support vicinity for 2 years. Every so often it'll have a fast and furious rally. Seldom does it hit YELLOW support area but when it does, it usually signifies that upcoming spike...
Pretty good calls on the following: (see our profile for more info) The US #Dollar maintains its upward trend. The 10yr #yield is also looking pretty decent. The 30 Yr bottomed before the others and has been leading #interestrates. #OIL broke downtrend and has been looking better.
The S&P500 broke out this week to new all time highs. Finally playing catchup the nasdaq indices. Semi-conductors continue to be the bright spot in the market. 10 year yield confims breakout. many S&P sectors closed negative on the week despite the marekt making ATH's
Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...
For the few years there has been a close correlation between the US Dollar Index, US Treasury Yields, US Oil, and The Volatility Index, as of right now all are forming similar accumulation patterns, with the DXY, and Oil both sitting at the PCZ of a potential Bullish 5-0 at the 50% Retrace after breaking above its trend and the US10 Year yield sitting at the 61.8...
OANDA:XAGUSD has been sold heavily with yesterday's CPI numbers. Hotter CPI than expected numbers increased the probability of postponing the start of rate cuts to a later than March. With this expectation, OANDA:XAUUSD and OANDA:XAGUSD were sold with the initial reaction and then they saw some recovery. Silver might have bottomed out. Why? TVC:US10Y ...
QQQ / SPY New Closing Daily High Semiconductors Mixed * Transports weak DXY & Yields Continuing Lower
NASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest...