The US 10Y yield continues to plough higher. We had been watching the support at 2.73 (end of April low) for a possible break but in the end, this held several attempts, and the market has recovered well. This support was reinforced by the 55-day ma, which lies at 2.78 currently and this has left the market well-placed to tackle the 3.20 May high. In the past I...
They do not scream "SELL" just yet, but these indicators offer strong caution of further market correction. Please take some time to study the charts so you understand the story they tell. I am not an economist; I am a trader who has been learning more about bonds and macro indicators. (I have ignored the pandemic drop because it was extraneous to normal...
Another Market Myth Exposed The Nasdaq index has now declined by 10% from its November high , prompting the mainstream financial media to call it a “ correction ” whatever that means. I think they call it a bear market when it is down by 20% . Many stocks have already fallen by at least that amount, and realistically, it’s all semantics anyway. It’s early...
Before you trade stocks, bitcoin, FX, bonds or anything you have to try and understand how our monetary system works not to miss the big picture. This video helps you by providing a 10.000 foot view of the global macro landscape. Don't miss the forest for the trees. Tune in and enjoy!
This chart shows three times during the past three decades in which the yield curve inverts. An inversion is when the rate of a shorter term debt security is higher than the rate of a longer term debt security. This is identified on this chart in 2000, 2006, 2019. Treasury Debt Securities: Bill; less than one year to maturity at issue. Note; greater than one year...
Interest rates are crucial in the movement of currencies. The blue is EURUSD. Those things are not 100 percent correlated but it is something that needs to be paid attention to. In this post I will demonstrate the relationship between French American bond yields (interest rates) differential and EURUSD. We use 2 principal yields 2 yearly and 5 yearly composite...
Spread between Chinese and JGB's appears follow Bitcoin (usd) pretty well. As expected: bitcoin is the exact opposite of a portfolio hedge, and just a call option (like Tom Lee has made the case for) for growth. Interestingly enough, falling rates appear to stimulate selling and rising rates entice buying.