There have been a lot of talks of a bond bear market over the past year. That would be a big problem, but it's not here yet. The biggest problem is that too many chartists are using and circulating charts of trend resistance breaking in bonds that do not use log scales. I get that it seems intuitively dumb for a yield chart to use a log scale, but that's how this...
The minute leading diagonal has clearly broken the larger downward wave, which ended in a larger ending diagonal... Expect a short term pullback to the wave iv level and then a continued rise at least 1.618 times the length of this first leading diagonal wave... Short term pullback would be consistent with a modest recovery in equities early next week before a...
Recent NFP report was very positive and this confirms our long term view on US interest rates upside trend. Now, there is 99.8% probability of Fed rate increase to 2.25% in September and 77.58% probability of rate increase to 2.5% in December. Prob. has increased for ~10% due last NFP data. It totally confirms the technical picture that we have.
Although not conclusive yet, this may indeed prove to be the end of this bull market...
The 30 year treasury yield has traded under 3.25% for almost 4 years now. The Fed continues to hike rates on a quarterly basis and Trump is unhappy about rising rates. Every day we hear how the economy is 'in great shape', and jobs data is 'as good as it gets'. More significantly what is pushing up rates are increased treasury issuance and the Fed's...
TLT is bear flagging and hitting some key resistance.
$TLT (or futures) offer a good long entry here, with a relatively big risk/reward ratio if the trade pans out favorably. I'd say odds are 65% it does work, so definitely worth a try. With stocks and gold down for the day I'm inclined to get some exposure here to hedge my portfolio. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
US Treasuries yield reaches the lowest level since near 11-years.Treasuries US yield reaches the lowest level since near 11-years.
Regarding today's bond market behavior, I am reminded of the following words of wisdom mostly attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." From Trump's successful efforts in negotiating an end to a 70 year North/South Korean war, and denuclearization of NoKo, to the Fed raising interest...
This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this...
Typically I have seen that when everyone is on one side of the trade its quite easy for the market to make fools of the participants. The speculative short position on US treasuries, specifically the 10 year, is massive (and for good reason). While I remain a longer bear view on these treasuries I think we might end up seeing a short squeeze before we see 3%...
the course of the 5 years treasuries have rosen from 1.62$ to 2.60$. Even if the market expectations for higher interest rates are still active we can see a little consolidation on this level - which is the fib retracement 100. After the consolidation in this flag pattern we can expect a continuation of the rise to prices around 2.90$ (fib extension 1,272%). RSI:...
After completing Head & Shoulder formation and breaking down below $122 support, reached our $117 targets, and now range-bound. Trends remain bearish, watch for a break below $117 support for continuation lower, targeting $114 (minor) and $110 (major) support levels. Use Vertical Put Spreads to limit your risk when taking bearish bets. Register for a free 30...
At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this...
It is plain as day that rising interest rates and rising 10yr treasury yields do not bring stocks down. There is actually a POSITIVE correlation going on. So what am I missing? Why is everyone blaming these two for the correction?
The correction from the ATH was inevitable as the Dow broke well above it's long term growth channel. What we've seen in the past few days is hungry hungry bears beginning to feed when the 10 year T Note reaches the 2.85% yield mark with today being no different. What's important to recognize in this relationship is how the DOW bulls are attempting to hold on...
AMEX:TBF is poised for a major breakout of its long-term downtrend channel short term bullish wedge. As interest rates continue to rise, TBF is poised to benefit. Both the fundamentals and the chart are beginning to align. I will be taking a position in TBF sometime this week.
The difference between the US 10 and 5 year yield is down to just 20bps. The market is reflecting short-term growth and short-term Fed tightening, but sees inflation firmly anchored at 2% for the long-term. The fact that inflation is at 2% also keeps equity valuations up, but for how long? As the curve flattens to 2006 levels, are we 12-18 months away from an...