guidoamm

guidoamm Updated 

I don't see the Euro inverting anything. Still, good to keep an eye on this however. Ultimately, there is still a US$ shortage globally and countries that have sold sovereign debt in US$ will need to start hoarding US$ in great quantities again. The recent spurt in the equity markets have temporarily relieved the need for cash Dollars. I do not believe this...

guidoamm Updated 

On daily charts, I can see any number of head and shoulder formations incudling on the ETFs The monthly WTIC chart is looking like.... the last gasps of a dying industry? Is that possible? I can see how commodities in general will rally in the medium term. The oil chart however says this is a secular decline.... I am short the oil sector till I will no longer be...

guidoamm

If the rising blue trend line does not contain the price, the yellow area is the likely bottoming range for this leg down in the US$

guidoamm Updated 

Although lacking in volume for now, this set up looks good for a significant advance in the medium term. The market sector is favourable. The chart is coiled. Risk/Reward are looking good with clear levels highlighted in blue.

guidoamm Updated 

The global juncture is US$ favourable. Countries around the world have sold significant amounts of sovereign debt denominated in US$, Now facing deteriorating economies, these countries will find it increasingly difficult to repay their debts. US$ hoarding is the name of the game. By end 2020 we should have a complete wind down of technicals and, perhaps, even a...

guidoamm Updated 

Been a long time since my last update. The DJI is still in an overall long term positive trend. As I already noted over a year ago, the technicals never really fully unwound as in 2009 however. It's been a long time. Too long for me to be comfortable. Let's be clear; even a 50% correction at this point would still leave the DJI in a positive uptrend. With...

guidoamm

I see a lot of energy in this market. Price action has once again pierced a long term resistance level that originates at the 1987 high and takes in the 2000 high (thick red line). Technicals on the monthly still have to fully unwind. I will wait to see whether the DJI makes a higher low in the next cycle bottom or whether it breaks down lower. If it makes a...

guidoamm Updated 

To me, this looks like it wants to go up If this is the case, given the global fiscal and political framework, this is supportive for both the US$ AND the US stock market

guidoamm

Whether counting from the 1974 low or the 1987 low or, indeed, the 2009 low, there is a cluster of Fib retracements around the 20000 level. I believe that is a reasonable least retracement needed for this uptrend to continue. Moreover, the line rising from the January 2000 top which takes in the March 2015 top and the bottom of the channel rising from the March...

guidoamm

This is a rather busy monthly chart. The negatives: Price action has broken down from the recent declining channel indicating intensification of sell off Monthly technicals have not yet fully unwound A weekly closing below the first Fibo would suggest a run towards the second Fibo The positives We are still in an uptrend overall There is strong rising...

guidoamm

Technicals are unwinding which is necessary for the uptrend to continue. Global fiscal, monetary and social policies are still supportive of the US share market as a refuge for global capital. In this context, the Fed raising rates is share market positive. We have at a minimum another 2000 points to the downside before we should become concerned.

guidoamm

We are reaching oversold levels on the weekly charts. This is where I start tweaking my hedges. I think this week's closing should give us an indication of direction for next week. A close below 24000 on a weekly basis points to some more work to the downside possibly till the mid terms. Fiscal policy around the world is still suggestive of a strong US$ and...

guidoamm

Looking at this chart, it is my opinion that nothing serious has been broken.... yet The DJI would have to break 24000 for this decline to get some legs. If indeed this came to pass, than we are looking at the first Fibo retracement. Till then however, this is merely a healthy regrouping exercise to realign the technicals. The daily has reached oversold...

guidoamm

So far, this is a healthy retrenchment in what appears to be a strong bull market. US domestic and global fiscal and economic circumstances are supportive of a bull market in the DJI and the US$ The technicals however required realignment. This could be the opportunity to do so. The November elections in the US are, to me, a bit of a wild card. We shall cross...

guidoamm Updated 

This index has once again breached a secular trend to the upside. There is significant momentum to this breach presaging a strong rise to new highs in the medium to long term. In the short term however, there is a possibility of a sharp correction to bring the technicals back in sync. The DOW is in a powerful uptrend overall Short term neutral to bearish Long...

guidoamm

Same as previous chart but long term weekly view

guidoamm

Of course, there are many levels to breach before this secular trend can be declared to have turned. Nothing conclusive therefore. To me however, the momentum appears to be positive. If indeed my analysis should come to pass as outlined, many a peripheral countries should find themselves gradually, though rather quickly, further up the proverbial creek.

guidoamm Updated 

Technical double top possible within 3 months. Very clear support below Overall trend still up