The reason for Friday's massive market selling is said to be because of the Fed's message that the rate hike is coming. Seems that it may just be broad market selling after a period of complacent low VIX and broader overvaluation. For confirmation that the rate hike is coming I'll be watching the 3 month treasury rate closely for signs. A move from .30 to .55...
Looks like we're topping out here at the peak of a massive ascending wedge. HIGHLY likely we form a beautiful high test on the quarterly chart but I'm not going to wait around for that to happen. Martin Armstrong's Socrates signaling major trend change to downside within TLT which confirms techs. Trade Management: First major area of support seems to...
This ratio looks like it is to have a big drop soon.
The 1327 retracement level has been breached today following the sustained bounce in 10 year yields. Although the market is looking oversold intraday, I expect the correction to continue to potentially as low as 1297 before becoming attractive again from the long side. I remain bullish on gold medium and long term (as I have been all year) with a year-end price...
About 5 days ago, I had pointed to the possible Bearish Cypher formation on the 10-yr treasury yield . The pattern stands completed today. Point D = 1.499% = potential reversal zone (PRZ) has been tested. As per the pattern, we should be heading down from here. For related markets this means - US stocks may be in for correction USD/JPY rally could run out of...
The hourly chart shows bullish price RSI divergence led to the recovery in the yield from the record low of 1.322%. We also have a bearish cipher set up, courtesy of the recovery from record low. Point D, which is the potential reversal zone, stands at 1.499%. This means the yield could turn lower from 1.499% or if the level is breached on the higher side on...
Watch the lines - this is the perception of long term Dollar value divided by Gold.
As I had explained in my previous post, it was likely to see an 'emotional high' in these instruments, followed by a sharp decline. After this break down, all these instruments are at a major support level once again, and in sync too. Notes: I'd get out of shorts here and maybe flip long in a few days. Gold: It might have some more room to fall, but if it...
This is a simple analytic piece on Gold, Bonds and Bitcoin. After the Fed meeting yesterday, the market clearly decided the fears of low rates and weak dollar were justified, with a very dovish Fed, and gold and 10 year notes rallied (and quickly chinese buyers followed suit in BTC). The interesting part is that gold has yet again broken the recent highs, which...
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TNX appears to have ended its 3 wave decline. If 3 hits the common 1.618 multiple of 1 expect TNX at 4.23 before its next significant correction, which will end above 3.0, the top of wave 1 and then likely equal the ascent of 1 for wave 5... Long TNX, short bonds...
Finally Gold completes the market risk-off 3 for rallying... we not have JPY, BONDS and GOLD all rallying - this completes the set of 3 -riskoff indicators, we are now in full bear mode for stock markets imo.. as you can tell from the US Treasuries and JPY, these riskoff assets have been gaining value for some time, gold has been lagging behind but today...
The U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data. However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart,...
Just about hitting a support level on the symmetric triangle. Fundamentally, the global markets are going through a rough time this week, which could drive demand for haven assets such as 10Y treasuries, driving the price up to hit the resistance level of this triangle. I think that we will see a short-term move up to the resistance. Look for breaks on both...
These lines help us see how quickly people are switching from Treasuries to Gold.
Follow this chart for decision between US Treasuries and Gold.