We have a strong uptrend signal in treasury notes and potential for a big upside move. I'm currently long $TMF, as my proxy for this move, since $TLT was lower than 10 Year Note futures, offering a more interesting risk/reward (as per Tim West's posts). Right now, I think the move to the upside is confirmed, so, if you're not in, you could look into buying either...
Worth keeping an eye on here to see whether the divergence yields some timing insight here into gold.
Uptrend should resume after the 61.8% retracement and bullish divergence. Fundamentally a normal mean reversion of term premium is occurring. This should also support the USD in the medium-term and keep the uptrend intact for 2017. However the move may be choppy because of extreme long positioning.
We are getting the beginnings of our Harmonic Breakout to upside this AM. Targets Shown on Chart.
EURUSD has an interesting signal in the short term. The chart points to more upside here, but the most interesting thing is that the stop loss for this long trade is very tight. Also, we have a record position in speculator shorts in treasuries plus a massive selloff courtesy of China, which would correlate with today's dip in the Euro (on the back of Yellen's...
treasuries coiling up for another move. momentum on 10y crashing even with feb no-hike odds at 98%. hawkish minutes meeting next month could very well send yields ripping. good watchlist candidate.
At extreme levels, however, the data doesn't look correct... I'm certain it is the most extreme since 2005!
TLT offers a low risk buy if we make a new high tomorrow, with a stop under the recent swing low. We can aim for a retest of weekly resistance, as signaled on chart. I'd rather buy and exit there to be safe. There's a chance we might be able to flip short at that level, but I'd rather take that trade by buying $USDJPY and $USDSEK for instance, and/or shorting...
One of the most obvious trades out there. Pullback to mean would be KILLER value. Will be watching this closely and using Marty Armstrong's Socrates levels for confirmation. There is certainly a chance we continue down further to that next support trend line before pulling back. In that instance we may see a H&S formation occur with the right shoulder at fib.
The global benchmark for the rates – the US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied this month from 1.77% to a high of 2.417%. Such a sharp rise in yields in such a short period of time is undesirable since the world is awash with debt…as noted by Nicole Elliot on yesterday’s Finance show Marc Ostwald, Strategist at ADMISI also noted the sharp spike is overdone on...
10-year Treasury Note yield (TNX) is going to climb towards 3% by Q4'17.
TNX has been rising very rapidly. Now it's above 200-daily moving average. RSI is signaling overbought, but one must remember that it can stay overbought for some time. Maybe investors are realizing something? twitter.com
We have a nice double bottom in TLT. We can speculate on going long on a break above the Brexit key level resistance at 134.42. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long term trend up indicated by the 89 day simple moving average over the 89 week moving average. Short term price action creating a great trading opportunity to go with the trend. Fractal momentum is reaching a maximum to the negative. Fractal acceleration is about to turn positive. We are waiting and watching for entry signal.
When most people are fearing an asset bubble in treasuries, and after increasing fears of rising yields, with many doomsayers calling for the end of this 'bubble', and a rapid selloff, it's clear that $TLT has found support, and that we can take the long side if it breaks last week's high. An integral part in any portfolio, $CEF, and $TLT. See my previous $TLT...