MVedra

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Joined London, UK
Always at work
Markets Allocation
33 % forex 11 % stocks 7 % indices 48 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX500USD 25% | 7 GBPUSD 14% | 4 EURUSD 7% | 2 SPX 7% | 2
MVedra MVedra KRE, D, Short ,
6 0 0
KRE, D Short
Financial Trouble

Are financials rolling over? The financial sector ETF XLF, and regional bank ETF KRE are moving back down to their 12 month lows. The cause is likely lower interest rate hike expectations and government yields. Caution ahead for September's weak season.

MVedra MVedra PPC, 2D, Long ,
12 0 1
PPC, 2D Long
PPC - Pilgim's Pride hurt - oversold | long contrarian view

Pilgrim's Pride fall from grace came following a proposed securities class action alleging the poultry giant concealed a price-fixing scheme with other broiler chicken companies, that resulted in a stock price plunge when revealed. The case is Hogan v. Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation et al, case number 1:16-cv-02611, US District Court of Colorado. The fall is complete ...

MVedra MVedra UKOIL, 2D, Long ,
24 0 0
UKOIL, 2D Long
Brent positioned to move higher - from $70 to $80

Steadily rallying into the $70 key resistance that marked the May-15 and Jan-18 highs. The resistance at $70 would mark a level that investors are taking profits at, and hedgers are happy to sell forward. This creates an artificial hold on prices, which will end in a move higher with $80 a target.

85 0 1
EURUSD, 180
EURUSD: Reversal Signs

The EURUSD has gone nowhere since the end of 2017; notice 1.225 is the key trading level and support. The poor performance of European stocks in 2018 has perhaps been surprising; the market has lost its conviction about the coordinated global growth that dominated 2017 sentiment. The price clearly reflects investors confusion; on the one hand is an accommodative ...

MVedra MVedra USDJPY, 180, Long ,
23 0 0
USDJPY, 180 Long
USDJPY First Shift In Trend Since 2017. Target: 108.00

Using hourly data back to 2017 the USDJPY is showing a clear shift in trend; the downward channel broke in April for the first time this year. The moving average just highlights how Monday's brief selloff acted as a pullback to a trend reversal to the upside. While the trade war may be negative for the USD in the long-run, the USD is normally the safest asset ...

MVedra MVedra SPX/EEM, 2D, Education
78 0 0
SPX/EEM, 2D Education
S&P 500 versus Emerging Markets

This is the spread between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Market Index. Notice how the trend has switched in favour of being overweight EM, underweight US. The change occurred as inflation and GDP were upgraded in EM countries, causing the USD to fall against other currencies in 2017, as capital begins to flow out of the US in search of higher yields. The ...

MVedra MVedra GBPUSD, D, Short ,
168 0 3
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD Three reasons to sell or short

a. 1.3850 to 1.40 marks a zone that was the floor for prices in 2016. b. Cycles of 60 Days has been a consistent predictor the past year, we are in the cycle peak zone. c. The RSI is at extremes and previously at this level (see Oct-16) GBPUSD pulled back 3%.

MVedra MVedra VDC, D, Long ,
5 0 0
VDC, D Long
VDC: Long Consumer Staples / Short SPX (or NASDAQ)

Consumer Staples including Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola are lagging the rest of the market by 20% in the last 12 months. This is extreme, and whilst the S&P500 has gained another 6% in 2018 YTD, these Consumer Staples firms have consolided near their highs. Yesterday's session saw them break through this ceiling. View: Long VDC, Short SPX as a defensive ...

MVedra MVedra TNX-FVX, W, Short ,
33 0 0
TNX-FVX, W Short
5s10s Yiled Curve Flattener.. ak Short-term gain, long term pain

The difference between the US 10 and 5 year yield is down to just 20bps. The market is reflecting short-term growth and short-term Fed tightening, but sees inflation firmly anchored at 2% for the long-term. The fact that inflation is at 2% also keeps equity valuations up, but for how long? As the curve flattens to 2006 levels, are we 12-18 months away from an ...

MVedra MVedra SPX, W, Long ,
92 0 0
SPX, W Long
S&P500 - Third Strongest Run in 40 year - but don't short!

Using the Relative Strength Indicator the S&P500 is showing the third strongest run in 40 years... and surpassing the other two in Nov-1995 and Mar-1986. But don't try to call the top... In each case the S&P500 made higher gains, and momentum actually faded significantly before any major pullback. Major pullbacks are preceded by consolidating ranges (i.e. ...

MVedra MVedra GC1!, 2D, Long ,
31 0 1
GC1!, 2D Long
Gold to Break Higher - watch these levels

The chart shows where major support and resistance is, and is there to indicate the trend. On smaller time frames you'll notice that Gold has over the past week firmly stayed at 1275, rather than dipping lower. The fact that this is happening near a turning point in a major downtrend may indicate that this an early signal to get long. If Gold moves above ...

MVedra MVedra GBPUSD, D, Short ,
31 0 2
GBPUSD, D Short
Pausing on Long GBPUSD - looking ‘toppy’ at 1.30

A psychological level but also Relative Strength (below) overbought over the last month, and not this high in over a year. Support below at 1.27 (top of pre-breakout range this year).

34 0 2
VIX, D
VIX beginning to trend upwards..

This is not a cry to long VIX by any means, but it seems we are off the lows having had the lowest implied volatility in the first quarter of 2017 EVER recorded. Realized volatility was the lowest in 40 years. What is does tell us though is that the rally is fading, uncertainty growing, and the key level to watch is the fresh low set by the S&P500 week before last.

47 0 2
GBPEUR, D
GBP/EUR: a level to watch over the next two weeks

if GBPEUR breaks the upper trend channel shown and 1.2 (or consolidates between 1.18 and 1.2), this could mark the beginning of resurgent GBP. It appears likely this will coincide around the coming French elections...

43 0 3
GBPUSD, 180
GBP/USD - part b) A View in Context to S&P500

GBP/USD and SPX are closely related. The chart comparison of SPX versus GBP/USD show a fairly negative correlation. This is odd, and unusual to history, because it implies that USD is positively correlated with the SPX. Its a strange situation where rate hikes are interpreted as 'good' for the market. With this in mind, a sell-off in SPX would undermine the ...

36 0 2
GBPUSD, 180
GBP/USD - part a) Technical only

Details on the Chart. The higher low is bullish, with the market behaving as though 1.25 is fair value, and reflects the most traded level over 6 months. My view is balanced on whether the resistance trend line is broken or not (orange line): There is a higher probability that price moves lower from this resistance based on history since Dec-16. However, if ...

MVedra MVedra SPX500USD, 15, Short ,
13 0 2
SPX500USD, 15 Short
What we're watching on S&P this morning

Further downside likely: Price is fading and losing momentum on the higher lows these last two days. Support at 2345 looks stressed. 2360 is key resistance and is establishing a downward trend - definitely watch how price behaves on a rally 2353. Key notes on the chart.

MVedra MVedra SPX500USD, 240, Short ,
14 0 1
SPX500USD, 240 Short
Selling may not be over.. patiently waiting for another pullback

If you're already short (I have been explaining why I was short last week) then holding a little longer may be fruitful - the price consolidating at this low of 2338 is telling of a further sell-off. It tells me the market is still in shock from this rapid sell-off yesterday, with a bid temporarily propping up prices. Non-professional investors will likely ...

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