MVedra

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Markets Allocation
35 % forex 6 % commodities 6 % indices 53 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX500USD 41% | 7 GBPUSD 17% | 3 VIX 5% | 1 EURUSD 5% | 1
MVedra MVedra PRO GC1!, 2D, Long ,
GC1!: Gold to Break Higher - watch these levels
26 0 1
GC1!, 2D Long
Gold to Break Higher - watch these levels

The chart shows where major support and resistance is, and is there to indicate the trend. On smaller time frames you'll notice that Gold has over the past week firmly stayed at 1275, rather than dipping lower. The fact that this is happening near a turning point in a major downtrend may indicate that this an early signal to get long. If Gold moves above ...

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: Pausing on Long GBPUSD - looking ‘toppy’ at 1.30
31 0 2
GBPUSD, D Short
Pausing on Long GBPUSD - looking ‘toppy’ at 1.30

A psychological level but also Relative Strength (below) overbought over the last month, and not this high in over a year. Support below at 1.27 (top of pre-breakout range this year).

MVedra MVedra PRO VIX, D,
VIX: VIX beginning to trend upwards..
27 0 2
VIX, D
VIX beginning to trend upwards..

This is not a cry to long VIX by any means, but it seems we are off the lows having had the lowest implied volatility in the first quarter of 2017 EVER recorded. Realized volatility was the lowest in 40 years. What is does tell us though is that the rally is fading, uncertainty growing, and the key level to watch is the fresh low set by the S&P500 week before last.

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPEUR, D,
GBPEUR: GBP/EUR: a level to watch over the next two weeks
47 0 2
GBPEUR, D
GBP/EUR: a level to watch over the next two weeks

if GBPEUR breaks the upper trend channel shown and 1.2 (or consolidates between 1.18 and 1.2), this could mark the beginning of resurgent GBP. It appears likely this will coincide around the coming French elections...

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPUSD, 180,
GBPUSD: GBP/USD - part b) A View in Context to S&P500
42 0 3
GBPUSD, 180
GBP/USD - part b) A View in Context to S&P500

GBP/USD and SPX are closely related. The chart comparison of SPX versus GBP/USD show a fairly negative correlation. This is odd, and unusual to history, because it implies that USD is positively correlated with the SPX. Its a strange situation where rate hikes are interpreted as 'good' for the market. With this in mind, a sell-off in SPX would undermine the ...

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPUSD, 180,
GBPUSD: GBP/USD - part a) Technical only
36 0 2
GBPUSD, 180
GBP/USD - part a) Technical only

Details on the Chart. The higher low is bullish, with the market behaving as though 1.25 is fair value, and reflects the most traded level over 6 months. My view is balanced on whether the resistance trend line is broken or not (orange line): There is a higher probability that price moves lower from this resistance based on history since Dec-16. However, if ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 15, Short ,
SPX500USD: What we're watching on S&P this morning
13 0 2
SPX500USD, 15 Short
What we're watching on S&P this morning

Further downside likely: Price is fading and losing momentum on the higher lows these last two days. Support at 2345 looks stressed. 2360 is key resistance and is establishing a downward trend - definitely watch how price behaves on a rally 2353. Key notes on the chart.

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 240, Short ,
SPX500USD: Selling may not be over.. patiently waiting for another pullback
13 0 1
SPX500USD, 240 Short
Selling may not be over.. patiently waiting for another pullback

If you're already short (I have been explaining why I was short last week) then holding a little longer may be fruitful - the price consolidating at this low of 2338 is telling of a further sell-off. It tells me the market is still in shock from this rapid sell-off yesterday, with a bid temporarily propping up prices. Non-professional investors will likely ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 240, Short ,
SPX500USD: How do you interpret this?  S&P500
21 0 1
SPX500USD, 240 Short
How do you interpret this? S&P500

Earlier charts showwe initiated a short at 2390. Our bearish view holds for these reasons: 1. 13th Feb to 13th Mar S&P500 traded in a short-term trend (blue dotted) that was diverging from its Relative prices (the RSI below). 2. On the 7th Mar it broke this trend, and the same trend turned from support to resistance. This was clearest at 2390 on the 13th. 3. ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 180, Short ,
SPX500USD: S&P 500  - Divergence Spotted: Short.  Building on a view
22 0 1
SPX500USD, 180 Short
S&P 500 - Divergence Spotted: Short. Building on a view

Short opportunity identified over 3hr bars, with a clear price-RSI divergence. I have the same short view over different time frames (see links), but this one confirms my view with S&P500's relative fading strength. I hate over-fitting charts with indicators as markets are too uncertain for that, so I generally have two key moments in mind: a) the price level ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 30,
SPX500USD: Looking for Short Entry Next Week S&P - Early Setup Signs
35 0 1
SPX500USD, 30
Looking for Short Entry Next Week S&P - Early Setup Signs

The week's 3 day pullback from the high of 2400 ended last night, when massive support came in at 2355. This drove the S&P up and out its downward channel breaking free at 2370. Heading for 2380 this is also a 50% retracement of its 2400/2355 range. I would like to see S&P test 2390 to initiate a short, with a view that 2400 is the all-time high as I've ...

MVedra MVedra PRO GOLD, 180, Long ,
GOLD: Longing for Gold - Aggressive Entry based on 3 reasons.
79 1 2
GOLD, 180 Long
Longing for Gold - Aggressive Entry based on 3 reasons.

Whether you prefer your ABCs or 123s, both steer me to see a short-term rally in Gold: ABCDE marks the second dip as D on the 15th Feb, in which case E was the end, and now we are in the middle of the correction/collapse. A pullback should follow. If you think 15th doesn't count (too shallow) then we are in the second dip, or 4. In which case the final ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 180, Short ,
SPX500USD: Short S&P500 Consider Entering Now for the Next 4 Months
57 0 1
SPX500USD, 180 Short
Short S&P500 Consider Entering Now for the Next 4 Months

The classic 3 wave pattern has completed, with an unusually regular cycle of 4 months for each stage. With demand exhausted a pullback is highly possible, and my outlook to expect a substantial fall over the next 4 months. Elliott Wave is perhaps the least understood despite showing up across all markets and all time frames. It essentially explains the path of a ...

MVedra MVedra PRO EURUSD, 180,
EURUSD: EURUSD Avoiding trading until above 1.065 or below 1.05
19 0 2
EURUSD, 180
EURUSD Avoiding trading until above 1.065 or below 1.05

The New Year rally ended in February that saw EUR pull back to 1.035 but stop halfway, to consolidate between 1.065 and 1.05. With French elections potentially dominating the near-term the market appears unwilling to find direction.

MVedra MVedra PRO USDJPY, 120, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY Setup to Breakout from 1 Month Daily Channel
19 0 2
USDJPY, 120 Long
USDJPY Setup to Breakout from 1 Month Daily Channel

The 1 month channel (looking from 2 hr bars) shows a declining range. However, price failed to break below 111.50, actually bouncing off 115.70 to forma moderately higher low, an initially bullish indication. Now with price consolidating around 114, demand appears to be building towards a break up.

MVedra MVedra PRO DAX, D, Short ,
DAX: Bearish Signal on DAX = SHORT
62 0 1
DAX, D Short
Bearish Signal on DAX = SHORT

Bearish Divergence using the 14 Day RSI to highlight price making higher highs with declining momentum. Ok it would have been early (ie wrong) to call this on the 26th January, and again on the 22nd February, but that only supports this bearish view even more (... path dependency is everything!). Risk position: Short DAX with a stop at 12160. 12160 should be ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 15,
SPX500USD: Break point lower for SPX following 7 days up in a row?
21 0 3
SPX500USD, 15
Break point lower for SPX following 7 days up in a row?

Strong channel up is being challenged this session open - watch for market to trade sideways from here

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