MVedra

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Markets Allocation
32 % forex 9 % indices 5 % commodities 55 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX500USD 31% | 7 GBPUSD 18% | 4 SPX 9% | 2 VIX 4% | 1
MVedra MVedra PRO SPX/EEM, 2D, Education
SPX/EEM: S&P 500 versus Emerging Markets
56 0 0
SPX/EEM, 2D Education
S&P 500 versus Emerging Markets

This is the spread between the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Market Index. Notice how the trend has switched in favour of being overweight EM, underweight US. The change occurred as inflation and GDP were upgraded in EM countries, causing the USD to fall against other currencies in 2017, as capital begins to flow out of the US in search of higher yields. The ...

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD Three reasons to sell or short
150 0 3
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD Three reasons to sell or short

a. 1.3850 to 1.40 marks a zone that was the floor for prices in 2016. b. Cycles of 60 Days has been a consistent predictor the past year, we are in the cycle peak zone. c. The RSI is at extremes and previously at this level (see Oct-16) GBPUSD pulled back 3%.

MVedra MVedra PRO VDC, D, Long ,
VDC: VDC: Long Consumer Staples / Short SPX (or NASDAQ)
4 0 0
VDC, D Long
VDC: Long Consumer Staples / Short SPX (or NASDAQ)

Consumer Staples including Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola are lagging the rest of the market by 20% in the last 12 months. This is extreme, and whilst the S&P500 has gained another 6% in 2018 YTD, these Consumer Staples firms have consolided near their highs. Yesterday's session saw them break through this ceiling. View: Long VDC, Short SPX as a defensive ...

MVedra MVedra PRO TNX-FVX, W, Short ,
TNX-FVX: 5s10s Yiled Curve Flattener.. ak Short-term gain, long term pain
16 0 0
TNX-FVX, W Short
5s10s Yiled Curve Flattener.. ak Short-term gain, long term pain

The difference between the US 10 and 5 year yield is down to just 20bps. The market is reflecting short-term growth and short-term Fed tightening, but sees inflation firmly anchored at 2% for the long-term. The fact that inflation is at 2% also keeps equity valuations up, but for how long? As the curve flattens to 2006 levels, are we 12-18 months away from an ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX, W, Long ,
SPX: S&P500 - Third Strongest Run in 40 year - but don't short!
78 0 0
SPX, W Long
S&P500 - Third Strongest Run in 40 year - but don't short!

Using the Relative Strength Indicator the S&P500 is showing the third strongest run in 40 years... and surpassing the other two in Nov-1995 and Mar-1986. But don't try to call the top... In each case the S&P500 made higher gains, and momentum actually faded significantly before any major pullback. Major pullbacks are preceded by consolidating ranges (i.e. ...

MVedra MVedra PRO GC1!, 2D, Long ,
GC1!: Gold to Break Higher - watch these levels
28 0 1
GC1!, 2D Long
Gold to Break Higher - watch these levels

The chart shows where major support and resistance is, and is there to indicate the trend. On smaller time frames you'll notice that Gold has over the past week firmly stayed at 1275, rather than dipping lower. The fact that this is happening near a turning point in a major downtrend may indicate that this an early signal to get long. If Gold moves above ...

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: Pausing on Long GBPUSD - looking ‘toppy’ at 1.30
31 0 2
GBPUSD, D Short
Pausing on Long GBPUSD - looking ‘toppy’ at 1.30

A psychological level but also Relative Strength (below) overbought over the last month, and not this high in over a year. Support below at 1.27 (top of pre-breakout range this year).

MVedra MVedra PRO VIX, D,
VIX: VIX beginning to trend upwards..
29 0 2
VIX, D
VIX beginning to trend upwards..

This is not a cry to long VIX by any means, but it seems we are off the lows having had the lowest implied volatility in the first quarter of 2017 EVER recorded. Realized volatility was the lowest in 40 years. What is does tell us though is that the rally is fading, uncertainty growing, and the key level to watch is the fresh low set by the S&P500 week before last.

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPEUR, D,
GBPEUR: GBP/EUR: a level to watch over the next two weeks
47 0 2
GBPEUR, D
GBP/EUR: a level to watch over the next two weeks

if GBPEUR breaks the upper trend channel shown and 1.2 (or consolidates between 1.18 and 1.2), this could mark the beginning of resurgent GBP. It appears likely this will coincide around the coming French elections...

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPUSD, 180,
GBPUSD: GBP/USD - part b) A View in Context to S&P500
42 0 3
GBPUSD, 180
GBP/USD - part b) A View in Context to S&P500

GBP/USD and SPX are closely related. The chart comparison of SPX versus GBP/USD show a fairly negative correlation. This is odd, and unusual to history, because it implies that USD is positively correlated with the SPX. Its a strange situation where rate hikes are interpreted as 'good' for the market. With this in mind, a sell-off in SPX would undermine the ...

MVedra MVedra PRO GBPUSD, 180,
GBPUSD: GBP/USD - part a) Technical only
36 0 2
GBPUSD, 180
GBP/USD - part a) Technical only

Details on the Chart. The higher low is bullish, with the market behaving as though 1.25 is fair value, and reflects the most traded level over 6 months. My view is balanced on whether the resistance trend line is broken or not (orange line): There is a higher probability that price moves lower from this resistance based on history since Dec-16. However, if ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 15, Short ,
SPX500USD: What we're watching on S&P this morning
13 0 2
SPX500USD, 15 Short
What we're watching on S&P this morning

Further downside likely: Price is fading and losing momentum on the higher lows these last two days. Support at 2345 looks stressed. 2360 is key resistance and is establishing a downward trend - definitely watch how price behaves on a rally 2353. Key notes on the chart.

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 240, Short ,
SPX500USD: Selling may not be over.. patiently waiting for another pullback
13 0 1
SPX500USD, 240 Short
Selling may not be over.. patiently waiting for another pullback

If you're already short (I have been explaining why I was short last week) then holding a little longer may be fruitful - the price consolidating at this low of 2338 is telling of a further sell-off. It tells me the market is still in shock from this rapid sell-off yesterday, with a bid temporarily propping up prices. Non-professional investors will likely ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 240, Short ,
SPX500USD: How do you interpret this?  S&P500
21 0 1
SPX500USD, 240 Short
How do you interpret this? S&P500

Earlier charts showwe initiated a short at 2390. Our bearish view holds for these reasons: 1. 13th Feb to 13th Mar S&P500 traded in a short-term trend (blue dotted) that was diverging from its Relative prices (the RSI below). 2. On the 7th Mar it broke this trend, and the same trend turned from support to resistance. This was clearest at 2390 on the 13th. 3. ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 180, Short ,
SPX500USD: S&P 500  - Divergence Spotted: Short.  Building on a view
22 0 1
SPX500USD, 180 Short
S&P 500 - Divergence Spotted: Short. Building on a view

Short opportunity identified over 3hr bars, with a clear price-RSI divergence. I have the same short view over different time frames (see links), but this one confirms my view with S&P500's relative fading strength. I hate over-fitting charts with indicators as markets are too uncertain for that, so I generally have two key moments in mind: a) the price level ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 30,
SPX500USD: Looking for Short Entry Next Week S&P - Early Setup Signs
36 0 1
SPX500USD, 30
Looking for Short Entry Next Week S&P - Early Setup Signs

The week's 3 day pullback from the high of 2400 ended last night, when massive support came in at 2355. This drove the S&P up and out its downward channel breaking free at 2370. Heading for 2380 this is also a 50% retracement of its 2400/2355 range. I would like to see S&P test 2390 to initiate a short, with a view that 2400 is the all-time high as I've ...

MVedra MVedra PRO GOLD, 180, Long ,
GOLD: Longing for Gold - Aggressive Entry based on 3 reasons.
80 1 2
GOLD, 180 Long
Longing for Gold - Aggressive Entry based on 3 reasons.

Whether you prefer your ABCs or 123s, both steer me to see a short-term rally in Gold: ABCDE marks the second dip as D on the 15th Feb, in which case E was the end, and now we are in the middle of the correction/collapse. A pullback should follow. If you think 15th doesn't count (too shallow) then we are in the second dip, or 4. In which case the final ...

MVedra MVedra PRO SPX500USD, 180, Short ,
SPX500USD: Short S&P500 Consider Entering Now for the Next 4 Months
57 0 1
SPX500USD, 180 Short
Short S&P500 Consider Entering Now for the Next 4 Months

The classic 3 wave pattern has completed, with an unusually regular cycle of 4 months for each stage. With demand exhausted a pullback is highly possible, and my outlook to expect a substantial fall over the next 4 months. Elliott Wave is perhaps the least understood despite showing up across all markets and all time frames. It essentially explains the path of a ...

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