2360-2600-3300-5400 DRAFT 6-3: GIANT TRIANGLE PROOF CHECKED
Introduction - With conviction in due diligence and much, much anticipation, Binary Forecasting Service presents, the route to 2360 and by extension 2600. This is basically DRAFT 6-2 completely proof-checked from all ratios of regression waves and corresponding volatility limits.
Details - For background please see previous drafts. Otherwise in chart above: lightest blue watermarks were multiple versions of DRAFT 5. Gray hi-light was DRAFT 6-1, now considered eliminated. Blue hi-light running to Juy 4 and 2580 was DRAFT 6-2. Darkest of blue hi-light running to Friday 04/19 is Binary Forecasting Service's most updated trend engine's base case with better than moderate confidence. This route has its:
1) bottom at 2135 on Tuesday 03/26
2) first of two tops at 2300 on Thursday 04/04 or Friday 04/05 (March NFP release)
3) 80-point check down to 2220 within 12 hours of 2300 high
4) second top at or above 2363 on 04/10
5) and finally re-check to 2200 by end of Friday 04/19
6) because of this adjustment, the route to June 12th FOMC and July 4th 2600 high
7) "should be" much closer to blue line than all previous hi-lights (in theory)
8) I just haven't done proof checks on the rest of it to say that with confidence
Details - For background please see previous drafts. Otherwise in chart above: lightest blue watermarks were multiple versions of DRAFT 5. Gray hi-light was DRAFT 6-1, now considered eliminated. Blue hi-light running to Juy 4 and 2580 was DRAFT 6-2. Darkest of blue hi-light running to Friday 04/19 is Binary Forecasting Service's most updated trend engine's base case with better than moderate confidence. This route has its:
1) bottom at 2135 on Tuesday 03/26
2) first of two tops at 2300 on Thursday 04/04 or Friday 04/05 (March NFP release)
3) 80-point check down to 2220 within 12 hours of 2300 high
4) second top at or above 2363 on 04/10
5) and finally re-check to 2200 by end of Friday 04/19
6) because of this adjustment, the route to June 12th FOMC and July 4th 2600 high
7) "should be" much closer to blue line than all previous hi-lights (in theory)
8) I just haven't done proof checks on the rest of it to say that with confidence
Comment:
Comment:
8) in chart above through NY CLOSE on Monday:
a) first, the immediate 6-8 hours coming should be strong
b) price should move to break the lower of two resistance
c) after that it should challenge the higher resistance until Monday morning
d) odds favor 2-3 attempts
e) odds favor all of them to fail
f) and to check 2145 at lower resistance which would be support by now
e) odds favor a 2157 close (at Friday's low)
f) overnight to Tuesday AM, price should challenge 2165 (Friday's close)
h) odds favor that attempt to fail and a check to the true short-term support lines
i) this would be 2135-2138 on Tuesday morning
j) after a few hours of stalling
k) rebound to Tuesday close, which odds favor Tuesday close to be 2157+
l) overnight to Wednesday should feature a test of 2180 (this level is important)
m) but that test will fail with check down to 2165 on Wednesday
n) Wedne'sday close should be 2170+
o)Thursday should feature a break and close above 2180
p) and rally would be on
a) first, the immediate 6-8 hours coming should be strong
b) price should move to break the lower of two resistance
c) after that it should challenge the higher resistance until Monday morning
d) odds favor 2-3 attempts
e) odds favor all of them to fail
f) and to check 2145 at lower resistance which would be support by now
e) odds favor a 2157 close (at Friday's low)
f) overnight to Tuesday AM, price should challenge 2165 (Friday's close)
h) odds favor that attempt to fail and a check to the true short-term support lines
i) this would be 2135-2138 on Tuesday morning
j) after a few hours of stalling
k) rebound to Tuesday close, which odds favor Tuesday close to be 2157+
l) overnight to Wednesday should feature a test of 2180 (this level is important)
m) but that test will fail with check down to 2165 on Wednesday
n) Wedne'sday close should be 2170+
o)Thursday should feature a break and close above 2180
p) and rally would be on
Comment:
q) at this time, Fridays looks like a retest of 2165 and another close above 2180
r) so rally would truly be on at 2 back-to-back closes above 2180
s) and the week starting Sunday night 03/31 should be fireworks
r) so rally would truly be on at 2 back-to-back closes above 2180
s) and the week starting Sunday night 03/31 should be fireworks
Comment:
t) just a warning if you scalp a lot:
Comment:
a) in chart above light blue route if I use 18 and 22-min bars
b) mid-blue is for 6 and 80 min bars
c) but once you get to 30-sec and 1-min bars with dark blue
d) it is CHECK FIRST TO 57... SIDEWAYS TO 67-68
e) only two test of higher resistance at 68 and again at 65
f) before dropping to 48 and lower in the morning
g) no, 52-ish in the morning
h) 45 in the afternoon
i) but closing 57
b) mid-blue is for 6 and 80 min bars
c) but once you get to 30-sec and 1-min bars with dark blue
d) it is CHECK FIRST TO 57... SIDEWAYS TO 67-68
e) only two test of higher resistance at 68 and again at 65
f) before dropping to 48 and lower in the morning
g) no, 52-ish in the morning
h) 45 in the afternoon
i) but closing 57
Comment:
j) the Tuesday low is a big deal:
Comment:
k) 30-sec bars say it's not obvious bears can break 2145
l) but 22-min bars say it's possible bears can make 2128
m) the vol situation say that if the low is 2135, than the 4/10 should be 2363
n) if the low is 2145 then, the high is 2372+ (this makes sense)
o) BUT.. if the low is 2128 or lower, then the high is 2395+ (this is counter-intuitive)
p) but it would be bears overstepping followed by bulls over-correcting
l) but 22-min bars say it's possible bears can make 2128
m) the vol situation say that if the low is 2135, than the 4/10 should be 2363
n) if the low is 2145 then, the high is 2372+ (this makes sense)
o) BUT.. if the low is 2128 or lower, then the high is 2395+ (this is counter-intuitive)
p) but it would be bears overstepping followed by bulls over-correcting
Comment:
q) FWIW if you go wider to 1-day bar and classical TA as well, that low should be 2224-ish
r) if this occurs, we will readjust the route a bit rest of way
r) if this occurs, we will readjust the route a bit rest of way
Comment:
ON RAISING MY TARGETS RECENTLY --
a) originally, it was 2320, 2540, 27xx, and eventually 3000
b) now, it's 2360, 2600, 3300, 5400
c) I am confident in my my math and my due diligence
d) if this gold bull thesis is true - in my humbled opinion - these are right targets
e) they will take 20 months to complete
f) the other option is, this the biggest fake out of all time
g) we have only one signal that could be the case, and is the weak price action of AG
h) or First Majestic Silver, considered by many metals enthusiasts/observers to be ...
i) THE SILVER MAJOR to go long the second stage of gold bull (where we are now)
j) while it's true that the huge leg can happen in 8 months time... (I've done the math)
k) the lead-in or bounce off the 8-year low, has only started since 02/13 this year
l) in general, that's not a major concern, but a concern nonetheless
m) per usual we will see the outcome soon
n) should gold break lower vs 2123.xx this coming Tues, or maybe even Wednesday
o) that is GIANT NO-NO
p) that's the other side of this coin
q) have a good week, I will check in on Tues/Wed
a) originally, it was 2320, 2540, 27xx, and eventually 3000
b) now, it's 2360, 2600, 3300, 5400
c) I am confident in my my math and my due diligence
d) if this gold bull thesis is true - in my humbled opinion - these are right targets
e) they will take 20 months to complete
f) the other option is, this the biggest fake out of all time
g) we have only one signal that could be the case, and is the weak price action of AG
h) or First Majestic Silver, considered by many metals enthusiasts/observers to be ...
i) THE SILVER MAJOR to go long the second stage of gold bull (where we are now)
j) while it's true that the huge leg can happen in 8 months time... (I've done the math)
k) the lead-in or bounce off the 8-year low, has only started since 02/13 this year
l) in general, that's not a major concern, but a concern nonetheless
m) per usual we will see the outcome soon
n) should gold break lower vs 2123.xx this coming Tues, or maybe even Wednesday
o) that is GIANT NO-NO
p) that's the other side of this coin
q) have a good week, I will check in on Tues/Wed
Comment:
03/24 1:58 PM, I forgot 3/29 is Good Friday, didn't adjust for that
a) right now I don't know what the hours are
b) so worst case scenario, everything gets pushed forward 1 day
c) will get to this on Thursday
a) right now I don't know what the hours are
b) so worst case scenario, everything gets pushed forward 1 day
c) will get to this on Thursday
Comment:
d) it has been different for ICD/ICE XAUUSD schedule last 3 years
e) in 2021, they were open
f) in 2022 they were open to Friday 8:30 AM ET
g) in 2023 they were closed FROM THURSDAY'S CLOSE- which means Thursday night AND all of Friday
h) CME Group says it will be the same this year, closed from Thursday PM
i) the reason I forecast with ICD/ICE ticker is bc...
j) they give the most information globally, and have longest correct bar history with very little error, unlike OANDA/FXOPEN etc...
k) while they are annoying with overdetailed micro bar bid/ask ...
l) they are superuseful for forecasting'
m) so until we see what their bars look like Thursday night or Friday morning...
n) I can't say much about that
e) in 2021, they were open
f) in 2022 they were open to Friday 8:30 AM ET
g) in 2023 they were closed FROM THURSDAY'S CLOSE- which means Thursday night AND all of Friday
h) CME Group says it will be the same this year, closed from Thursday PM
i) the reason I forecast with ICD/ICE ticker is bc...
j) they give the most information globally, and have longest correct bar history with very little error, unlike OANDA/FXOPEN etc...
k) while they are annoying with overdetailed micro bar bid/ask ...
l) they are superuseful for forecasting'
m) so until we see what their bars look like Thursday night or Friday morning...
n) I can't say much about that
Comment:
Comment:
2:38 PM ET, I will post 6-4 Tuesday night to cover this Good Friday problem
Comment:
Sunday night, 8:46 PM ET, nothing clear right now:
Comment:
1) in chart above, and as stated in previous drafts
2) if price can break those two lines without making a new low
3) that is under 2157...
4) in my humbled opinion, the upward shift in the curves, would be huge
5) but that until they break ... they haven't broken
6) that's all for Sunday night
2) if price can break those two lines without making a new low
3) that is under 2157...
4) in my humbled opinion, the upward shift in the curves, would be huge
5) but that until they break ... they haven't broken
6) that's all for Sunday night
Comment:
9:21 PM so lower resistance broke now at 2172.xx
a) here's what that means:
a) here's what that means:
Comment:
b) so in chart above, the curve for 6-3 is light blue watermark
c) light blue is same curve shifted up
d) so now worst case scenario is a 2150 floor bc we can eliminate 2135, and 2145
e) but bulls are trying to shift the whole thing up much faster
f) it's not obvious yet that they can bc the whole mix of trends is convoluted
g) we can only adjust for each step they take
h) I can however adjust ahead one more move, Ill post it soon
c) light blue is same curve shifted up
d) so now worst case scenario is a 2150 floor bc we can eliminate 2135, and 2145
e) but bulls are trying to shift the whole thing up much faster
f) it's not obvious yet that they can bc the whole mix of trends is convoluted
g) we can only adjust for each step they take
h) I can however adjust ahead one more move, Ill post it soon
Comment:
i) no, the odds of that move is just too low to make it worth doing...
j) I will clean up the yellow route so we know what we are dealing with
j) I will clean up the yellow route so we know what we are dealing with
Comment:
Comment:
THIS POST IS DONE, HERE IS 6-4:
Related Ideas
1) the important part about this draft is very proof-checked
2) meaning I made sure that none of the trend maps...
3) disagreed in ANY DIRECTION MORE THAN A FEW POINTS (2 or 3 points at the most)
4) this is incredibly hard to do
5) I have went over enough technical notes already, more would be annoying
6) so let's discussed detail price action only
7) so here's 8-min bars: