2345-2550-3000 DRAFT#3, 48 HOUR EMERGENCY
Introduction - This is what Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine says should happen in 48 hours, completely detailed.
Details - I've confirmed the likelihood of the first part with no boxes. That is:
1) zig-zag to PPI at about 2175
2) explode to 2215
3) check-down the previous 2195 high
4) bounce and close NEAR OR AT HIGH OF DAY
5) this point is SPECIFICALLY CRUCIAL, bc it confirms the next move
6) explode to 2250 before 6:30 PM ET
7) if this second move does happen by 7 PM ET...
8) BE SUSPCIOUS AF OK?!
Details - I've confirmed the likelihood of the first part with no boxes. That is:
1) zig-zag to PPI at about 2175
2) explode to 2215
3) check-down the previous 2195 high
4) bounce and close NEAR OR AT HIGH OF DAY
5) this point is SPECIFICALLY CRUCIAL, bc it confirms the next move
6) explode to 2250 before 6:30 PM ET
7) if this second move does happen by 7 PM ET...
8) BE SUSPCIOUS AF OK?!
Comment:
10) should price out-perform hi-light to first high...
11) then ADJUST ACCORDINGLY REST OF THE WAY
11) then ADJUST ACCORDINGLY REST OF THE WAY
Comment:
12) for that question can it move 2215 and 2295
13) NO
14) if Thursday NY session makes it to 2023 some how (and that's a big ask)
15) then maybe night high can make 2260
16) there's no version of this that we exceed 2263, maybe on Friday
13) NO
14) if Thursday NY session makes it to 2023 some how (and that's a big ask)
15) then maybe night high can make 2260
16) there's no version of this that we exceed 2263, maybe on Friday
Comment:
17) if we hit 2260+ Thursday night
18) we can hit 2275 Friday high, but would close 65 or less
18) we can hit 2275 Friday high, but would close 65 or less
Comment:
TYPOS:
3) once at 2250 (not 2150)
4) check down circa 2215-2220 (not 2115)
3) once at 2250 (not 2150)
4) check down circa 2215-2220 (not 2115)
Comment:
6:39 PM ET, WHAT HAPPENS IF THAT SECOND MOVE DOESN'T HAPPEN?
a) it's really hard to say
b) there are 3 outcomes
c) stall to Friday THEN MOVE UP
d) stall to Friday 3AM ET, then bears of the UK show up
e) and rug pull
a) it's really hard to say
b) there are 3 outcomes
c) stall to Friday THEN MOVE UP
d) stall to Friday 3AM ET, then bears of the UK show up
e) and rug pull
Comment:
Comment:
a) for chart above, no
b) not like that
b) not like that
Comment:
c) that is the most logical route
Comment:
8:41 PM, AND IF THERE'S NO SECOND MOVE
a) it would be sideways to Friday AM a
b) then move to 2255
a) it would be sideways to Friday AM a
b) then move to 2255
Comment:
Comment:
8:53 PM ET, 12 hours ahead of PPI, for chart above:
a) this is the part that is "missing" for it to all work
b) not that it couldn't happen another way
c) but all the combined trends added together "need this move" to complete the picture
d) hence, from here to morning, it would help us out in a big way
e) if we get that very pattern going into it
a) this is the part that is "missing" for it to all work
b) not that it couldn't happen another way
c) but all the combined trends added together "need this move" to complete the picture
d) hence, from here to morning, it would help us out in a big way
e) if we get that very pattern going into it
Comment:
f) and we get it
g) the spike starts at 8:30 AM ET
h) and stops by 11 AM
i) I really think it should be 2222 and then check to 2195-ish before moving up
again
j) in either case with or with out second spike, we need a strong close
k) but for the second spike specifically we need close to be within 3 pts of the day high
l) so if high is 2222, we need close to be 2019 or better to be sure there's second spike coming
m) if it is 10 lower, that would signal "sideways to down to Friday AM
n) you couldn't be completely sure either way
o) but those are the signals
g) the spike starts at 8:30 AM ET
h) and stops by 11 AM
i) I really think it should be 2222 and then check to 2195-ish before moving up
again
j) in either case with or with out second spike, we need a strong close
k) but for the second spike specifically we need close to be within 3 pts of the day high
l) so if high is 2222, we need close to be 2019 or better to be sure there's second spike coming
m) if it is 10 lower, that would signal "sideways to down to Friday AM
n) you couldn't be completely sure either way
o) but those are the signals
Comment:
p) counter-intuitively, IF WE DON'T GET A CHECK TO 2195 before the close
q) would be uneasy about what that means
r) that would be the most annoying, if we close strong WITHOUT the check to 2195
s) that's a headache I don't want
q) would be uneasy about what that means
r) that would be the most annoying, if we close strong WITHOUT the check to 2195
s) that's a headache I don't want
Comment:
10:02 PM no, not fast enough
a) there's very specific route for this work out (with all the big trends in place)
b) the micro-trends have to do their part too
a) there's very specific route for this work out (with all the big trends in place)
b) the micro-trends have to do their part too
Comment:
11:11 PM ET, MICRO TRENDS NEED TO GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
a) in chart above, I don't think this evolves into bear route considering the close
b) that we had today
c) but that's what binary means, be prepared for the other outcome
d) in which case, it's all up after Friday morning
e) goodnight
b) that we had today
c) but that's what binary means, be prepared for the other outcome
d) in which case, it's all up after Friday morning
e) goodnight
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
7) continuing w/ chart above, I still think it's hard to break 2144 now
Comment:
3:26 AM ET, I dont' think it's the bear move
a) even though it might start that way
b) this part is hard, bc it's obvious under the triangle at 67.xx
c) but if finds a floor and swing up above the triangle
d) it can still close Friday 2230+
e) trend on 1day bar and higher says it's over for bears
f) 12-hour bar says they are on their last bar with 2-3 hours to go
g) 6-hour bar says they got until noon maybe before it should swing
h) so if you are shorting, don't over commit and watchout for a hard swing up
a) even though it might start that way
b) this part is hard, bc it's obvious under the triangle at 67.xx
c) but if finds a floor and swing up above the triangle
d) it can still close Friday 2230+
e) trend on 1day bar and higher says it's over for bears
f) 12-hour bar says they are on their last bar with 2-3 hours to go
g) 6-hour bar says they got until noon maybe before it should swing
h) so if you are shorting, don't over commit and watchout for a hard swing up
Comment:
3:56 AM, so here are all the outcomes I see and why bear route is not really that bearish:
Comment:
1) in chart above light blue hi-light odds are dropping quick but still live
2) but higher than odds of light orange which I don't think is even realistic
3) dark orange is a move for 2150 again, then triple bottom and close Friday 2185
4) but right now of the four blue lines, 3 of them are more likely than dark orange
5) the skinny line near the light blue hi-light would be even RIGHT NOW
6) odds of closing Friday above 2215 are higher than odds of closing under it
2) but higher than odds of light orange which I don't think is even realistic
3) dark orange is a move for 2150 again, then triple bottom and close Friday 2185
4) but right now of the four blue lines, 3 of them are more likely than dark orange
5) the skinny line near the light blue hi-light would be even RIGHT NOW
6) odds of closing Friday above 2215 are higher than odds of closing under it
Comment:
7) if it does move down again, I don't think it touches 2150
Comment:
8) in my humbled opinion check down floor is 2158 and higher
Comment:
9) and at 4:04 AM, route in chart at top is still very much live but may have to move back 90 min
10) meaning if it plays out, about 30-min AFTER NY OPEN
11) instead of right on PPI release
10) meaning if it plays out, about 30-min AFTER NY OPEN
11) instead of right on PPI release
Comment:
4:27 AM ET 2169.55, come'on, 4 whole hours to make 2181, we can still make it on time...
a) one time!
b) hit this route so I don't have to quit
a) one time!
b) hit this route so I don't have to quit
Comment:
5:27 AM, looking increasingly like no second spike until tomorrow
a) so 2150 but Friday end of day
b) so I see this turning out bullishly
c) but not as fantastic as I thought
d) 2-day run to 2150 not bad though
a) so 2150 but Friday end of day
b) so I see this turning out bullishly
c) but not as fantastic as I thought
d) 2-day run to 2150 not bad though
Comment:
6:38 AM, too slow, it's not going to make it past 2195 today
a) too much Bollinger compression while curves not turning fast enough
b) so that means, rejection at 2195 or a bit higher
c) Friday above 2215
d) but that is it... let me double check once more
a) too much Bollinger compression while curves not turning fast enough
b) so that means, rejection at 2195 or a bit higher
c) Friday above 2215
d) but that is it... let me double check once more
Comment:
e) yeah, it's going to get sold at 2200 if it touches it...
f) so then can it catch second wind to push up
g) odds say no, not gearing up means too much compression to get far
f) so then can it catch second wind to push up
g) odds say no, not gearing up means too much compression to get far
Comment:
7:51 AM ET: WATCH OUT, this orange move won't die.
Comment:
9:13 AM: it's one of these
Comment:
1) for chart above, I still think we bottom today and move up
2) but I'm not going to fight it unless it gives me something to fight with
3) otherwise, the bear trend in regressions is going to be done today
4) so consider chart above in context of this chart earlier
2) but I'm not going to fight it unless it gives me something to fight with
3) otherwise, the bear trend in regressions is going to be done today
4) so consider chart above in context of this chart earlier
Comment:
5) continuing with chart above
6) I don't think we do bear route here
7) I think we swing up and move, just not as quick
8) so that's what I see
9) look, I wanted this one to hit strong too and maybe we change plans
10) it didn't hit, but I stand my 80-day plan, 2345, 2550, 3000
11) it just not gonna give us the nice move we were looking for
12) so that was my shot at buying some time to stick around
13) but they not selling me extra time today
14) have a good one, and trade defensively, and good luck
6) I don't think we do bear route here
7) I think we swing up and move, just not as quick
8) so that's what I see
9) look, I wanted this one to hit strong too and maybe we change plans
10) it didn't hit, but I stand my 80-day plan, 2345, 2550, 3000
11) it just not gonna give us the nice move we were looking for
12) so that was my shot at buying some time to stick around
13) but they not selling me extra time today
14) have a good one, and trade defensively, and good luck
Comment:
10:14 AM, PAST 10 already, bulls not responsive, watch out for orange route to 2150, maybe 2144.
a) the time limit for a move hit at 10'
b) if bulls can't break a trend line immediately here, bears will take momentum and run with it
a) the time limit for a move hit at 10'
b) if bulls can't break a trend line immediately here, bears will take momentum and run with it
Comment:
10:30 AM ET, so bulls broke a trend line on 15-sec bars.
a) i'ts first of four, and the rest of them are all harder
b) so what's the big deal?
c) bull have a small window to shoot and break all of them in one move
d) if they do that, they actually have spike setup much like chart at top
e) only except 3-4 hours slower
f) it's an underdog move
g) but bearish curves have .5-1.5 6-hour bars remaning
h) if bulls swing up, they can close that door by 12:30 PM ET
I) and actually have chance to complete the move as described in chart at top
a) i'ts first of four, and the rest of them are all harder
b) so what's the big deal?
c) bull have a small window to shoot and break all of them in one move
d) if they do that, they actually have spike setup much like chart at top
e) only except 3-4 hours slower
f) it's an underdog move
g) but bearish curves have .5-1.5 6-hour bars remaning
h) if bulls swing up, they can close that door by 12:30 PM ET
I) and actually have chance to complete the move as described in chart at top
Comment:
03/15, 10:21 UPDATE, my sources say the FED is going to shoot down this general market rallly
1) so that calls off all plans 2340-300 until first week of April
2) so please don't follow any of it
3) don't want anybody getting hurt
4) have a good spring break
1) so that calls off all plans 2340-300 until first week of April
2) so please don't follow any of it
3) don't want anybody getting hurt
4) have a good spring break
Related Ideas
1) the more price out-perform hi-light to PPI the higher the odds of this move to 2250
2) if it moves faster than anticipated, then the pre-spike low should be 2180-82
3) once at 2150 the specific moves are very difficult to map correctly
4) but it should obviously check down to the previous high circa 2115
5) AND SHOULD DO THIS 8:30 AM EVENT TIME BEFORE NY OPEN
6) IT SHOULD THEN FIRST MATCH THURSDAY'S HIGH
7) EXCEED THURSDAY'S HIGH BY 10-15 PTS
8) BUT CLOSE AT FRIDAY AT THURSDAY'S HIGH
9) which is 2245-2250 right in there