2345-2550-3000 (03/29, 04/26, 05/31) DRAFT 2
Long Introduction -This is the second draft for 2340-2550-3000 as a singular move in 80 days. If you think a sell off to 2150 going to make me back off this call, in the words of Adam M. Grant, you need to think again. I promised 2345 in March and 2550 in April and so shall I deliver if within my power. That is, frankly not within my power. Those powers belong to the GOLD gods.
They alone determine at what price and at what time gold is exchange throughout the global markets. While titans of finance are not true gods in the old sense, it has been well said by Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones that the bible of Linear Regression hold the secrets of interpretation should one desire to understand the god's influence over price and time. I am sorry to say I do not have that this bible. I will say that - at risk in sin of sacrilege - I have authored a poor man's substitute should that bible not be available.
Details - This is for regular readers only. If you are one, then we can definitely skip the details. If you are not a regular and insist on breaking norms of behavior, well go right ahead. But read previous work should you need back ground.
03/12 5:52 PM ET NOTES:
1) gold line is last line of resistance for 2340
2) the four arrows pointing up are weakest spots for price
3) the first is tomorrow, the second is FOMC, the third random, and the fourth is NFP
4) the six arrows pointing down are THE SIX REJECTIONS near 2345
5) it has been well said that if rejected six times, consider a seventh time
6) it may just work out and send you to 2550
7) I really am done, if there is a route back fore me, it can't happen until March is over
8) so this should tie you over
9) if I don't come back remember the plan wrote end of last post
10) good bye
11) hold on, the two cirlces are important
12) the reaction to FOMC SHOULD BE A STRONG VERTICAL SPIKE LIKE DECEMBER
13) wherever that stops, the check-down after 2345 must be THERE OR HIGHER
14) bc of the sell off price is almost stuck following the "dotted line"
15) hence the blue hilight should be more effective than usual
They alone determine at what price and at what time gold is exchange throughout the global markets. While titans of finance are not true gods in the old sense, it has been well said by Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones that the bible of Linear Regression hold the secrets of interpretation should one desire to understand the god's influence over price and time. I am sorry to say I do not have that this bible. I will say that - at risk in sin of sacrilege - I have authored a poor man's substitute should that bible not be available.
Details - This is for regular readers only. If you are one, then we can definitely skip the details. If you are not a regular and insist on breaking norms of behavior, well go right ahead. But read previous work should you need back ground.
03/12 5:52 PM ET NOTES:
1) gold line is last line of resistance for 2340
2) the four arrows pointing up are weakest spots for price
3) the first is tomorrow, the second is FOMC, the third random, and the fourth is NFP
4) the six arrows pointing down are THE SIX REJECTIONS near 2345
5) it has been well said that if rejected six times, consider a seventh time
6) it may just work out and send you to 2550
7) I really am done, if there is a route back fore me, it can't happen until March is over
8) so this should tie you over
9) if I don't come back remember the plan wrote end of last post
10) good bye
11) hold on, the two cirlces are important
12) the reaction to FOMC SHOULD BE A STRONG VERTICAL SPIKE LIKE DECEMBER
13) wherever that stops, the check-down after 2345 must be THERE OR HIGHER
14) bc of the sell off price is almost stuck following the "dotted line"
15) hence the blue hilight should be more effective than usual
Comment:
8) if I'm gone past March NFP Report (which is 04/05) , remember:
Comment:
a) this chart from last post is the "overall plan"
b) the hi-light in chart at top reflects this
c) after 3 or so rejections, the first check down stops at the second circle
d) when it bounces, it will be rejected again 2-3 more times until 04/05 NFP
e) which will send it back down TO A HIGHER LOW then the second circle
f) then it will break 2355 AND GET SET BACK YET AGAIN
g) so on the 7th or 8th try is when it will finally break
h) this make take 8 different trading days
i) but this needs to happen bc you are talking about a 44 year trend line discussed much before
j) and then you're on your way to 2550
k) THE KEY IS THAT EACH RALLY WILL SEEM TOO FAST
l) like the move to 2150 seemed too fast
m) the move to 2350 after FOMC will seem even faster
n) the move fore 2550 should be even faster
o) past 2500, there should be HIGH 2-WAY VOL THAT MAY BREAK TO 2625
p) I'm being detailed about this because there's not any more room for delays
q) this move is way past due so it has to fit that schedule
r) AT LEAST TO 5/20 AND 2700, whichever comes first
b) the hi-light in chart at top reflects this
c) after 3 or so rejections, the first check down stops at the second circle
d) when it bounces, it will be rejected again 2-3 more times until 04/05 NFP
e) which will send it back down TO A HIGHER LOW then the second circle
f) then it will break 2355 AND GET SET BACK YET AGAIN
g) so on the 7th or 8th try is when it will finally break
h) this make take 8 different trading days
i) but this needs to happen bc you are talking about a 44 year trend line discussed much before
j) and then you're on your way to 2550
k) THE KEY IS THAT EACH RALLY WILL SEEM TOO FAST
l) like the move to 2150 seemed too fast
m) the move to 2350 after FOMC will seem even faster
n) the move fore 2550 should be even faster
o) past 2500, there should be HIGH 2-WAY VOL THAT MAY BREAK TO 2625
p) I'm being detailed about this because there's not any more room for delays
q) this move is way past due so it has to fit that schedule
r) AT LEAST TO 5/20 AND 2700, whichever comes first
Comment:
3/13 11:15 AM, MESSAGES ABOUT "2340 DRAFT 0"
1) it means NOTHING THAT IT HAS HIT the paths on that draft
2) it more or less "got lucky" because it was UNCONFIRMED with the techs
3) and wasn't thorough, so it was lucky, but that maybe precisely why
4) bc it didn't have to overthink and over analyzed
5) but that draft shouldn't be your strategy
6) just think 100-200 pts at at time as opposed to 10-20 pts at a time
7) THIS IS THE TIME TO DO THAT
11:18 AM, MESSAGES ABOUT 2137-2144
a) I also said "2150 HASN'T BROKEN, AND UNTIL IT HAS, IT HASN'T"
b) the only way to get it right (and if you've been following you'd know this) is
c) to UPDATE AROUND THE CLOCK
11:20 KNOW YOUR TREND LINES:
1) it means NOTHING THAT IT HAS HIT the paths on that draft
2) it more or less "got lucky" because it was UNCONFIRMED with the techs
3) and wasn't thorough, so it was lucky, but that maybe precisely why
4) bc it didn't have to overthink and over analyzed
5) but that draft shouldn't be your strategy
6) just think 100-200 pts at at time as opposed to 10-20 pts at a time
7) THIS IS THE TIME TO DO THAT
11:18 AM, MESSAGES ABOUT 2137-2144
a) I also said "2150 HASN'T BROKEN, AND UNTIL IT HAS, IT HASN'T"
b) the only way to get it right (and if you've been following you'd know this) is
c) to UPDATE AROUND THE CLOCK
11:20 KNOW YOUR TREND LINES:
Comment:
1) REPLAY DRAFT 0 (no idea why that has got such a huge response this AM)
Comment:
2) that was 2 routes responding 2 different trend lines
3) the route does seem to reflect the light blue now
4) but ONLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
5) don't take that too seriously, bc it needs to be RECONFIRMED
3) the route does seem to reflect the light blue now
4) but ONLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
5) don't take that too seriously, bc it needs to be RECONFIRMED
Comment:
6) for example, from my end EVEN THOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE IT's doing light blue
7) but based on the math for that draft
8) odds for DRAFT 0'S 2 outcomes are 50/50
7) but based on the math for that draft
8) odds for DRAFT 0'S 2 outcomes are 50/50
Comment:
9) since it diverges greatly on 03/15
10) this implies hitting 2340 on 03/18-19 (ahead of FOMC)
11) now that we broke the yellow line, it should be obvious that bottom is in
12 what should you expect next?
10) this implies hitting 2340 on 03/18-19 (ahead of FOMC)
11) now that we broke the yellow line, it should be obvious that bottom is in
12 what should you expect next?
Comment:
13) nope it hasn't, but floor is now 2148 if it checks
14) I don't know if it will or simply break through
14) I don't know if it will or simply break through
Comment:
12:57 PM BREAK OR NOT, FLOOR IS CONSISTENTLY RISING:
Comment:
a) in chart above odds of a break here is increasing
b) but if it didn't break here, odds of breaking resistance first is higher
c) than odds of losing support first (the ascending line from 2150)
d) the red arrow is PPI 2-way scenario
e) the black arrow is point where bears lose control of trend
f) so all that mean sis floor is in
g) and effective floor from here out is 2160 if bears can pull it off
b) but if it didn't break here, odds of breaking resistance first is higher
c) than odds of losing support first (the ascending line from 2150)
d) the red arrow is PPI 2-way scenario
e) the black arrow is point where bears lose control of trend
f) so all that mean sis floor is in
g) and effective floor from here out is 2160 if bears can pull it off
Comment:
h) and it's looking increasing like they wont'
i) the chart at top has a break of 2200 on Monday
j) it's looking increasingly likely that will come on Friday producing a higher Monday high
k) all this is pointing to THE LOW before FOMC as 2200
i) the chart at top has a break of 2200 on Monday
j) it's looking increasingly likely that will come on Friday producing a higher Monday high
k) all this is pointing to THE LOW before FOMC as 2200
Comment:
1:26 PM BREAK CONFIRMED, AND LOW IS IN THAT'S SURE, HERE'S WHAT THAT MEANS
1) play chart at top
2) we are going to move faster than that
3) and top quicker than that
4) question is how fast
1) play chart at top
2) we are going to move faster than that
3) and top quicker than that
4) question is how fast
Comment:
Comment:
a) in chart above, I don't have time to "detail" the move now
b) this is one those points where I say "THIS POST HAS ENDED" HERE'S NEW DRAFT blah blah
c) I don't have time
d) just expect price to exceed chart at top to get to 2345 earlier
e) if we try to detail the move WE ARE GOING ARE GOING TO BE WRONG WHAT THE DETAILS are
f) but what I know as close to fact without it already happening
g) is we going to 2345 and it's in MARCH NOT IN APRIL
h) it is still NOT OBVIOUS THAT 2340 MUST BE AFTER FOMC
b) this is one those points where I say "THIS POST HAS ENDED" HERE'S NEW DRAFT blah blah
c) I don't have time
d) just expect price to exceed chart at top to get to 2345 earlier
e) if we try to detail the move WE ARE GOING ARE GOING TO BE WRONG WHAT THE DETAILS are
f) but what I know as close to fact without it already happening
g) is we going to 2345 and it's in MARCH NOT IN APRIL
h) it is still NOT OBVIOUS THAT 2340 MUST BE AFTER FOMC
Comment:
3/13 1:57 PM... so here's what's in my mind
a) it is also NOT OBVIOUS THAT 2340 CAN BE BEFORE FOMC
b) but that doesn't tell you any useful
c) or does it?
d) what it means that calling for 2290 on or BEFORE 03/19 IS THE RIGHT CALL
a) it is also NOT OBVIOUS THAT 2340 CAN BE BEFORE FOMC
b) but that doesn't tell you any useful
c) or does it?
d) what it means that calling for 2290 on or BEFORE 03/19 IS THE RIGHT CALL
Comment:
03/13 4:42 PM, OK, IT'S GOING TO TAKE THE FAST ROUTE!!
1) DON'T GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD!!
2) THE MATH IS RIGHT, 2280 OR BETTER ON TUESDAY!!
3) NO TIME FOR DETAILS,
1) DON'T GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD!!
2) THE MATH IS RIGHT, 2280 OR BETTER ON TUESDAY!!
3) NO TIME FOR DETAILS,
Comment:
4:55 PM MY MATH SAYS WE CLOSE THIS FRIDAY 2250
1) if I have time, I'll add notes
2) note time!!
1) if I have time, I'll add notes
2) note time!!
Comment:
5:04 PM ET, LISTEN, THIS IS DEAD SERIOUS OK?
1) the spike that I put notes early for 60pts for FOMC...
2) IS TOMORROW!!!
1) the spike that I put notes early for 60pts for FOMC...
2) IS TOMORROW!!!
Comment:
Comment:
3) in chart above that's 70 pts
4) DON'T MISS IT!!
4) DON'T MISS IT!!
Comment:
THIS POST IS DISCONTINUED (NOT END), UNTIL THEN HERE IS NEXT 48 HOURS:
Comment:
3/20, 5:41 PM ET, RE-CONTINUED, FOR THE MEAN TIME:
a) turned out the experts were wrong after all
b) but I didn't want anyone to lose money bc I wasn't sure
c) for today, not a fantastic close like +45-50 off the 2149 low
d) but good enough to aim for 2300-2320 before Good Friday
e) next 30 trading hours should break 2235
f) starting with zig zag sideways to up
g) and spike up hard BEFORE NY opens tomorrow
a) turned out the experts were wrong after all
b) but I didn't want anyone to lose money bc I wasn't sure
c) for today, not a fantastic close like +45-50 off the 2149 low
d) but good enough to aim for 2300-2320 before Good Friday
e) next 30 trading hours should break 2235
f) starting with zig zag sideways to up
g) and spike up hard BEFORE NY opens tomorrow
Comment:
h) if you play chart at top
i) the lead-in was much weaker than anticipated
j) so?
k) therefore the spike couldn't land 2200+
l) but momentum still strong enough to move higher for each of the next 5-6 trading days
m) this also means that once past 2300, there will considerable 2-way volatility for sometime,
n) that 2345 level will reject the first 3-6 attempts
i) the lead-in was much weaker than anticipated
j) so?
k) therefore the spike couldn't land 2200+
l) but momentum still strong enough to move higher for each of the next 5-6 trading days
m) this also means that once past 2300, there will considerable 2-way volatility for sometime,
n) that 2345 level will reject the first 3-6 attempts
Comment:
o) so bc of this change, the April move will be rejected at again 2345
p) this 44 year trend line is not going to break unless momentum is overwhelming
q) bc of the slowdown, price has lost that "overwhelming momentum"
r) so it looks like once at 2325, it will be 2-3 months of sideways
p) this 44 year trend line is not going to break unless momentum is overwhelming
q) bc of the slowdown, price has lost that "overwhelming momentum"
r) so it looks like once at 2325, it will be 2-3 months of sideways
Comment:
6:15 PM ET, new all time high 2222.xx
a) there we go
b) made up for lost time
a) there we go
b) made up for lost time
Comment:
c) if you play chart at top, we are "caught up"
d) and on trend to finish the move to 2325
e) but remember the "area of the chart" we lost in trend projection
f) so the hard cap at 2345 remain in place
g) further more, once at 2325+, EXPECT 100 pt retrace
d) and on trend to finish the move to 2325
e) but remember the "area of the chart" we lost in trend projection
f) so the hard cap at 2345 remain in place
g) further more, once at 2325+, EXPECT 100 pt retrace
Comment:
h) but we are going to nail that first circle right on time
i) the last week I read a lot of the experts' "classical technical analysis"
j) it was undeniable that 2135 never got tested (not to mention 2110, 2096, 2087)
k) if you play chart at top, you'll see that the "lead in" into the the massive FOMC move..
l) was "acting mirror image"
m) so while with the experts adamant about a move to 2100...
n) I didn't want to be wrong again for "another big move that didn't happen"
o) my reasoning remains the same same
p) the trend is what the trend is that's all
q) I know some people still waiting for that gap at 1840 to fill, so whatever
i) the last week I read a lot of the experts' "classical technical analysis"
j) it was undeniable that 2135 never got tested (not to mention 2110, 2096, 2087)
k) if you play chart at top, you'll see that the "lead in" into the the massive FOMC move..
l) was "acting mirror image"
m) so while with the experts adamant about a move to 2100...
n) I didn't want to be wrong again for "another big move that didn't happen"
o) my reasoning remains the same same
p) the trend is what the trend is that's all
q) I know some people still waiting for that gap at 1840 to fill, so whatever
Comment:
r) this type of move means check down to 1195 before NY OPENs tomorrow
s) obvious strong buy at or under 2195
s) obvious strong buy at or under 2195
Comment:
t) in hindsight, it's obvious now that price was waiting for FOMC
u) but the problem with the trend engine is that it does not "know" any better
v) bc the setup last Thurs at PPI was "technically" better, but it didn't move
w) next that these dates happen watch it move on PPI instead, there's no rhyme or reason
u) but the problem with the trend engine is that it does not "know" any better
v) bc the setup last Thurs at PPI was "technically" better, but it didn't move
w) next that these dates happen watch it move on PPI instead, there's no rhyme or reason
Comment:
x) otherwise it was the "same shape", see?:
Comment:
Comment:
6:36 PM ET, so to sum this up
a) BUY THE CHECK DOWN
b) expect 2325 on or before 03/28 (Thursday before Good Friday)
c) why not 2345?
d) bc of lost momentum...
e) it looks like 100 pt check down when we get to to 2325
f) then a fight for 2345, rejection second time
g) repeat a few more times and we will see where we are at
a) BUY THE CHECK DOWN
b) expect 2325 on or before 03/28 (Thursday before Good Friday)
c) why not 2345?
d) bc of lost momentum...
e) it looks like 100 pt check down when we get to to 2325
f) then a fight for 2345, rejection second time
g) repeat a few more times and we will see where we are at
Comment:
h) and again, this may take all April, May, and half of June (before FOMC on 6/12)
I) in the meantime, I am still short on time
m) but if there's something worth posting, I'll draft it up
n) I just dont' see 2345 breaking for a while, and for those that don't know, it's this line:
I) in the meantime, I am still short on time
m) but if there's something worth posting, I'll draft it up
n) I just dont' see 2345 breaking for a while, and for those that don't know, it's this line:
Comment:
Comment:
o) and I forgot one thing...
p) the stretched out move to break 2345...
q) will mean a slower rally but ultimately higher rally
r) this moves 3000-3300 into December or January 2025
s) but this also means 5000 is on the table before this thing is final
p) the stretched out move to break 2345...
q) will mean a slower rally but ultimately higher rally
r) this moves 3000-3300 into December or January 2025
s) but this also means 5000 is on the table before this thing is final
Comment:
t) so what?
1) at the close and 2185.xx, silver was up more than gold (obviously by now)
2) but AG closed up 6%
3) it's time to go long silver majors
4) this will AG will hit 50 before this all over (it's under $6 now)
5) 18 months at the most, buy and hold
6) it's the SINGULAR BEST IDEA I HAVE PERIOD
1) at the close and 2185.xx, silver was up more than gold (obviously by now)
2) but AG closed up 6%
3) it's time to go long silver majors
4) this will AG will hit 50 before this all over (it's under $6 now)
5) 18 months at the most, buy and hold
6) it's the SINGULAR BEST IDEA I HAVE PERIOD
Comment:
7) and I prefer AG over PAAS and really all other majors
8) why? bc you don't have to do anymore thinking
8) why? bc you don't have to do anymore thinking
Comment:
Comment:
11:26 PM, 3/20, THIS POST HAS ENDED FOR GOOD, HERE IS DRAFT 4:
Related Ideas
1) if you don't understand why it's important read notes in previous draft
2) it's pretty much tomorrow between 2137 and 2144
3) it is VERY UNLIKELY that the entry on FOMC day is any where close
FOR MY RETURN:
1) let's just say if 2345 comes on or before 03/27 like it's supposed to...
2) you may not have seen the last of me
3) good luck to you in trading as in life
4) speaking of which, if you were here when we nailed the 60 pt spike DECEMBER FOMC
5) we are going to get something exactly like that if not stronger next week
6) if price hugs the blue hi light until FOMC, that's a slam dunk +60 one day spike
7) you don't want to miss it