TheRealPeaches

Dow Jones: WARNING PART II

OANDA:US30USD   US Wall St 30
In my previous post, I was short the DJIA             , with the expectation of adding at down trending resistance. I did add, but was quickly stopped out.

Now price has broken ABOVE the resistance line, and I'm forced into a neutral position. This means I have no conviction either way, and any trades I take will be 1/3 of my full size.

I do not want to be one of these traders who perpetually tries to short US equities - which is exactly what has fueled the most hated rally in history. Yet, I maintain that this could be a FALSE BREAKOUT, and that significant downside remains a possibility. For that to happen, price would need to quickly reverse, fall back under the top side of the multi-month triangle, and stay below there.

Another possibility is that we see a choppy consolidation at these levels over the next few months, before simply rocketing higher. For the bullish case to be confirmed, I would still need to see a closing above the 25800 level to indicate strength.

For now I'm neutral, with a slight bearish leaning. My bearishness is colored by the action in S&P             and the Nasdaq - updates coming soon.

I will take a small short position on a Monday rally, with a stop above last week's high. If price moves higher next week, I will wait for a clear pattern to emerge before acting.

agree all the above been short from the highs in january ( yes paying for that as well) goldilocks is starting to look a bit jaded around the edge now! to many issues guys for this to troll on up, the Kudlows of this world and the CNBC nutters will be calling 50,000. dow all is rosy and all the bullshit
Trade tariffs with china , EU not sorted yet, 21 trillion debt , 10 year rate rising, shut down coming, iran issue, N.K not much going on .......... list goes on so yes bearish
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Very hard to predict from here as we're at that neutral level as you suggested where it could break higher and also quite easily dip under 25K. With almost 70% of punters still short on the Dow you'd think it will go against them and rise!

The 2017 chart had a strong August and led up to an Xmas rally with the record high of Jan 2018. Will it be a repeat or a reversal of that pattern??
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